US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief
US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Spain
Canada supplies 61.7% of Spain's iron-ore imports (2025), a High stake on one channel. Canada's exports to Spain rose 32.4% in 2025, to C$2.69bn.
61.7%
Canada's share of Spanish iron-ore imports, 2025
17.5%
Canada's share of Spanish wheat imports, 2025
C$2.69bn
Canada's exports to Spain, 2025
C$4.61bn
Canada's imports from Spain, 2025
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Risks
- One input, one supplier: iron ore is the whole of Spain's exposure on our lines.
- A Canadian recession (F-0174) would cut Canada's C$4.61bn of imports from Spain.
- US duties on steel stay at 50% for EU goods (press summary), a cost for the steel that Canadian ore feeds. Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- Canadian wheat took 17.5% of Spain's wheat imports in 2025, up from 6.1%.
- Canada's imports from Spain rose 11.1% in 2025.
- Spain is not among the 10 member states yet to ratify CETA.
Uncertainties
- Spain is below our diversification line: 0.37% of Canada's exports excluding gold.
- Iron-ore values move with steel demand and prices.
What to watch
- MonthlyCanada's exports to Spain (Statistics Canada).
- 31 Dec 2026The Q-027 forecasts on the EU share of Canada's exports resolve.
- 2027The EU carbon border charge applies to Canadian steel and aluminium (C-006).
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply from Canada (iron ore)Dependence | 61.7% of the country's imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of iron ore (HS 2601) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country.
Briefs and questions
- Q-027 · What does the EU relationship add beyond CETA, and when should exporters commit? ['F-0212', 'F-0213'] Summit deals land and the EU share holds, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
- Q-027 · How many member states still have not ratified CETA, nine years on? Ten member states have yet to ratify CETA; Spain is not one of them.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), imports by partner, as reported by the importing country (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 x country (ODPFN019), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, imports HS2 x country (ODPFN022), 2025 and 2024 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Strature Q-027 (Council of the EU ratification record) (Oct 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Statistics Canada CIMT, as cited in Strature C-006 data pack (S4G-023) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Tariffs Tool, 'EU Tariff Rate 2026: 15% Deal Live as of July 1' (commentary) (Jul 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Country's share of Canada's goods exports to the EU-27: 6.27% of Canada's exports to the EU-27 (= Canada's 2025 exports to the country / Canada's 2025 exports to the EU-27)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the US tariffs and Canada