Defence access, not market access: by 31 December 2026 summit deals land and the EU share holds, 55% (8% + 47%), our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
Evidence to 3 October 2026.
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“Defence access, not market access: by 31 December 2026 summit deals land and the EU share holds, 55% (8% + 47%), our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0212 8%, open · F-0213 47%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“The special relationship adds defence access, not market access. Its one binding new door is the EU defence-loan scheme, applied since April 2026; minerals finance is a non-binding letter, and none of the six drafted summit deals touches a tariff.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Claiming CETA's saving takes an origin statement and a direct shipment, nothing new.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The one that opens a legal track toward access beyond CETA, an association negotiation, stands at 12%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0211 12%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“Outside defence, nothing binding has followed. EU imports of Canadian critical raw materials rose 62% in 2025, to €3.3bn (Exhibit 20), yet the European Investment Bank's letter with Canada of 2 March 2026 is non-binding and commits no money.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The relationship's one binding new door is defence procurement; nothing signed or drafted changes a tariff. For a goods exporter, CETA's existing terms are the whole offer.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“A line that ships direct and already claims CETA will pay the same EU duty after the summit as before it. For such a line, waiting costs time and buys nothing.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On the six EU tariff lines we priced, CETA saves from nothing to €14,400 per €100,000 shipped. For an exporter, the duty is the one entry cost that can be counted; the rest is unpublished.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canadian goods worth €2,287.9m entered the EU in 2025 without claiming a CETA preference they qualified for. For an exporter whose goods qualify, this is a gain already within reach: collecting it needs no new agreement.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Canada's exports to Europe rose sharply in 2026, but three goods made most of the rise: fuels, gold and aluminium. So the boom says little about European demand for any one exporter's product.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“France and Italy are among 10 member states that have not ratified CETA, 9 years after it began to apply. For exporters, today's terms keep running, but any access beyond them waits on those votes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Washington already names Canada's EU terms when it sets duties on Canada. For a firm selling to both markets, each step toward Europe now carries a US price.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“For Canadian defence and dual-use suppliers, the EU's defence-loan scheme, SAFE, is the one new route into Europe that Canada has signed.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0211 | An association track opens | 12% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0212 | The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025 | 8% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0213 | A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025 | 47% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0214 | A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back | 18.3% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0215 | The summit delivers none of it | 12.9% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0216 | All other outcomes | 1.8% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 4 Oct 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
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