Ukraine's debt burden is high: the BoC-BoE database counts US$32,378m of debt in default or under restructuring in 2025, 15.11% of GDP, and IMF credit equals 6.64% of GDP. Approved reading
This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Ukraine?
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Ukraine is in 3 of our country readings; High in 3.
Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.
Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set
Outlook
Severe
Index
10.0 /10range 9.8–10.0 partial
First published November 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.
Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators
Outlook
Elevated
Index
Not enough open data for an index score.
Outlook
High
Index
Not enough open data for an index score.
Outlook
Not yet set
Index
Not enough open data for an index score.
Outlook
Not yet set
Index
Not enough open data for an index score.
Outlook
Not yet set
Index
5.6 /10range 4.6–6.6 partial
First published November 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.
Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators
Outlook
High
Index
Not enough open data for an index score.
No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.
No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.
No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.
Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.
Ukraine's five risks each hold a different score pair.
Area is the count.
Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.
Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.
Every card is in the list below, with its scores.
Impact 7 High · Likelihood 3 Low
Impact 5 Elevated · Likelihood 5 Elevated
Impact 5 Elevated · Likelihood 4 Elevated
Impact 5 Elevated · Likelihood 3 Low
Impact 4 Elevated · Likelihood 4 Elevated
How much Ukraine makes, buys and sells, good by good
Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).Supply balance first, suppliers second.
One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.
Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.
Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).
Periods are marketing years, as published.
General research, not advice. Request a free pilot
The questions our published briefs address that touch Ukraine.
Strature analysis, not from the brief
EU money is Ukraine's largest stake: the Support Loan's 2026 ceiling equals 26.6% of 2024 GDP, and the EU took 64.1% of goods exports. Both rest on member-state votes. High band.
26.6%
EU Ukraine Support Loan, 2026 ceiling, % of 2024 GDP
64.1%
Share of goods exports sold to the EU27, 2024
11.5%
People under EU temporary protection, Aug 2026, % of 2024 home population
7.09%
Ukraine Facility per year, % of GDP, 2024-2027
| Channel | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine supportSecurity and policy | 26.6% of GDP 2026Ukraine Support Loan tranche for 2026, % of 2024 GDP | High | High ≥3.0% of GDP · Medium 2.0–3.0% of GDP · Low 1.0–2.0% of GDP |
| AccessionRevenue | 7.09% of GDP 2024-2027Ukraine Facility, average per year, % of GDP | High | High ≥1.0% of GDP · Medium 0.25–1.0% of GDP · Low candidate status, money below 0.25% of GDP or not found |
| Eu marketTrade | 64.1% 2024Share of goods exports sold to the EU27 (EU mirror imports / own exports) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 33–50% · Low 20–33% |
| Nationals in euOther:migration | 11.5% of population 2026-08 / 2024Citizens under temporary protection in the EU27, % of home population | High | High ≥10% · Medium 5–10% · Low 2–5% |
| Climate car rulesTrade | 1.56% of GDP 2024EU imports of CBAM-chapter goods from the country, % of its GDP | Low | High (a) ≥4.0% of GDP or (b) ≥10% of GDP · Medium (a) ≥2.0% of GDP or (b) ≥5% of GDP · Low (a) ≥1.0% of GDP or (b) ≥2% of GDP |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.
Strature analysis, not from the brief
Ukraine sold 34.7% of the world's sunflower oil exports in 2024/25 and 10.7% of maize exports. Grain shipments in the 2026/27 season to early October were 24.3% below a year earlier.
34.7%
of world sunflower oil exports (2024/25)
10.7%
of world maize exports (2024/25)
7.5%
of world wheat exports (2024/25)
5.439
Mt of grain and pulses exported, 2026/27 season to early Oct
| Channel | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staple exporterProcurement | 34.7% 2024/25Share of world sunflowerseed oil exports | High | High ≥10% · Medium 5–10% · Low 3–5% |
| Cereal import dependenceDependence | 1% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley) | Below line | High ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40% |
| Staple import billRevenue | 0.11% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP | Below line | High ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.
Strature analysis, not from the brief
Ukraine's debt burden is high: the BoC-BoE database counts US$32,378m of debt in default or under restructuring in 2025, 15.11% of GDP, and IMF credit equals 6.64% of GDP.
15.1%
debt in default or under restructuring, % of GDP (2025, BoC-BoE)
6.64%
IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP (Nov 2026)
US$52.6bnest.
US$bn external financing needed for the 2027 budget (reported)
US$32.4bn
US$m in default or under restructuring (2025)
“Canada still bargains with the President; Europe looks to the new Congress.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.What it says about UkraineActor: takes the action
“The Commission's payment to Ukraine on 5 November was not stated as a response.”
From the brief
No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, and so is each sentence under “What it says”; anything labelled “Context, not from the brief” comes from the public source named beside it. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Europe · North America
ISO 3166-1 name: Ukraine (UKR). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
No published brief has Ukraine as its subject yet; the questions above name it in another role.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
No registered forecast is attached to these questions yet.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|
The full brief is supplied to organisations through the request form on the brief’s page: they accept its terms and confirm a work email, and it is free during the introductory period.
Q-030 · Edition 1.0
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
No figure on this page yet.
Cite this page Strature, “Ukraine”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/ukr/, 11 Nov 2026.
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