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Romania

Romania's Gulf exposure is diesel, not crude: Gulf refiners supplied 21.8% of its gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) in 2025, Saudi Arabia most; no Gulf crude arrived in 2024. Approved reading

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
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Your exposure

Romania in our readings

Romania is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · ROMANIA
Romania imported 31.7% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
31.7%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 41.3%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Hydro, 24.3%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 47.0% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.352024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: moderately concentrated

The EU's position in value chains (Romania is a member)

No value-chain share for Romania alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Romania · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Romania on the outlook map

Dates for Romania on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Romania

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Medium

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Romania: its Hormuz volumes on file stop at 2024, and the scenario cases run on one year, 2025.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Romania makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Eurostat trade data on gas oil arrivals by origin: do Saudi and Kuwaiti cargoes keep coming? Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly INS releases on crude and energy imports. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • At each renewal Whether the fuel-market emergency ordinance, set for six months and extendable, is renewed. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Romania?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Romania, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Romania on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Romania

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Romania.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2025: Turkish Straits 8% (the route model covers 91% of its named imports) modelled
  • Refined fuels, 2024: Suez 39% · Turkish Straits 33% · Bab el-Mandeb 26% · Hormuz 18% · Panama 0.3% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.See the map ›

Where Romania’s supply comes from, and the straits on the way

DirectionYear

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch Romania.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Romania

    Romania's Gulf exposure is diesel, not crude: Gulf refiners supplied 21.8% of its gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) in 2025, Saudi Arabia most; no Gulf crude arrived in 2024.

    Theme band Medium

    21.8%

    of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports from the Gulf (2025)

    535,518.027

    Gulf gas oils imported (2025; Saudi Arabia 451,144 t)

    0

    Gulf crude imported, of 8,263 kt (2024)

    80%est.

    of diesel needs met by imports (2026, press estimate)

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • Saudi Arabia was the largest supplier of oil products in 2024: 719 kt of 3,962 kt imported.
    • Imports meet about 80% of diesel needs (economist's estimate in the press, 2026), so a renewed closure could reach pump prices first. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Seaborne diesel leaned harder on the Gulf in 2026: Saudi Arabia sent 613 kt of 1.57 Mt in Jan-May (39.0%, press data). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Fuel prices already drew state action: in March 2026 an emergency ordinance capped commercial margins on petrol and diesel at 50% of the previous year's average. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Urea prices pass through without Gulf cargoes: Romania imported 1.08 Mt of urea in 2025, none from inside the Strait.

    Opportunities

    • Crude comes from outside the Gulf: Kazakhstan supplied 4,543 kt of the 8,263 kt imported in 2024; Gulf producers supplied none.
    • Suppliers outside the Gulf already carry most refined products: Turkey sent 734 kt in 2025 and India 407 kt.
    • Higher aluminium prices could lift revenue at Alro, Romania's primary aluminium smelter, which produced 197,768 t in Jan-Sep 2025.

    Uncertainties

    • The Gulf share moves by year and measure: 21.5% of oil product imports in 2024 (energy statistics), 18.9% of HS 2710 imports in 2025 by weight, and 18.4% of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports in 2025 by value (trade data).
    • Gulf crude has come before: Iraq and Saudi Arabia sent 401 kt in 2023 (5.4%), none in 2024.
    • For crude, the Black Sea weighs more than Hormuz: Kazakhstan's share of crude imports was 55% in Jan-Apr 2026 (press, from INS data). Estimate from press or commentary

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike could re-close the Strait.
    • MonthlyEurostat trade data on gas oil arrivals by origin: do Saudi and Kuwaiti cargoes keep coming?
    • MonthlyINS releases on crude and energy imports.
    • At each renewalWhether the fuel-market emergency ordinance, set for six months and extendable, is renewed.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Refined productsEnergy21.8% 2025Share of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) from Hormuz Gulf producersMediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Gulf share of oil product imports, by measure and year (%)
    Share of gas oil and diesel imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 31.9% (2024) (our calculation)Gas oil and diesel*31.9Share of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 21.8% (2025) (our calculation)Gas oil, kerosene a…*21.8Share of oil product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 21.5% (2024) (our calculation)Oil product*21.5Share of refined petroleum product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 18.9% (2025) (our calculation)Refined petroleum p…*18.9

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

    Briefs and questions

    • T-003 Products recovered least through the Strait; importers of diesel have no crude-switching option.
    • S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026, 61%: our estimate, scored when it resolves.

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 21.8% (= Gulf HS 271019 imports / total HS 271019 imports, by weight (Eurostat Comext))
    • Saudi share of seaborne diesel deliveries: 39% (= Saudi seaborne diesel / all seaborne diesel)
    • Share of oil product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 21.5% (= Gulf oil product imports / total oil product imports (Eurostat nrg_ti_oil))
    • Share of refined petroleum product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers: 18.9% (= Gulf HS 2710 imports / total HS 2710 imports, by weight (Eurostat Comext))
    • Share of gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports (HS 271019) from Hormuz Gulf producers, by value: 18.4% (= Gulf HS 2710 import value / total HS 271019 import value (Eurostat Comext, EUR))
    • Share of crude oil imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 5.44% (= Gulf crude imports / total crude imports (Eurostat nrg_ti_oil))
    • Gulf gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 133,879.5 t (= Gulf HS 271019 imports in 2025 × 3 / 12)
    • Gulf gas oil, kerosene and fuel oil imports to replace if Gulf supply stops for 6 months: 267,759 t (= Gulf HS 271019 imports in 2025 × 6 / 12)
    • Share of gas oil and diesel imports from Hormuz Gulf producers: 31.9% (= Gulf gas oil and diesel imports / total (Eurostat nrg_ti_oil))

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 28 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Romania (ROU). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Romania”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/rou/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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