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Czech Republic

Czechia took 10.6% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025. The share rose to 28.0% in Jan-Aug 2026 after Russian pipeline crude stopped. Gas, fertiliser and exports barely touch the Gulf. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Czech Republic?

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
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Your exposure

The Czech Republic in our readings

The Czech Republic is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Country card

Energy and value chains

EXHIBIT T-1 · CZECH REPUBLIC
The Czech Republic imported 48.1% of the energy it used in 2024.
Each figure in its own unit; each figure's year is shown.
Net import dependence, all energy
48.1%2024 · share of the energy it used · our calculation, EIA data
Largest energy source
Oil, 31.0%2024 · share of primary energy use · our calculation, EIA data
Electricity mix
Nuclear, 42.3%2025 · share of electricity generated · EmberRenewables 16.8% The latest year is partly estimated by Ember.
Crude oil supplier concentration (HHI, 0–1)
0.362024 · index 0–1, EC line 0.40 · our calculation, Eurostat dataEC band: moderately concentrated

The EU's position in value chains (the Czech Republic is a member)

No value-chain share for the Czech Republic alone is on file; these are the EU's, which include it.

  • Design software and IP as part of the EU 25%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Chipmaking equipment as part of the EU 18%BCG and SIA · 2022
  • Analog and other design as part of the EU 17%BCG and SIA · 2022

Shares as published, each with its own measure and period; never added across stages.

All stages on the value-chains page

SourceUS Energy Information Administration, EIA International Energy Data, energy balance by fuel (bulk INTL), all countries (Public domain (US federal work); credit EIA); Ember, Electricity data (yearly and monthly) (All of Ember's electricity data is fully open, CC BY 4.0.); Eurostat, Energy imports and exports by partner country (nrg_ti_* and nrg_te_*), all Eurostat energy reporters (CC BY 4.0; commercial reuse allowed with source credit.). Value chains: BCG and SIA (facts-only: Copyright BCG and SIA; single facts cited with attribution (read via reproduction by a government office)). Shares and the index: our calculation from these figures.How to read this plateEach figure carries its own year and unit; they sit side by side and are never added into one score. Supplier concentration: 0 = many small suppliers, 1 = one supplier; the European Commission draws a line at 0.40.
Exhibit T-1 · Czech Republic · strature.net

The supply balance, good by good, is under Goods and chokepoints.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare the Czech Republic on the outlook map

Dates for Czech Republic on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach the Czech Republic

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Who runs short first is not shown for Czech Republic: no Hormuz shipping volume (tonnes or barrels) for it is on file, and the scenario cases need one.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much the Czech Republic makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Czech crude imports by origin in Eurostat's monthly trade data. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Monthly Orlen spot crude purchases and any further reports on Aramco contract supply. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Weekly Czech pump prices in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in the Czech Republic?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in the Czech Republic, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open the Czech Republic on the map of brief questions

Dependency profile

Country card · Czech Republic

Chokepoints. The Energy and Value-chain strips appear here as each is approved for Czech Republic.

Chokepoints

Not enough open data
Modelled shares by strait (Strature route model)
  • Crude oil, 2025: Turkish Straits 20% · Suez 13% · Bab el-Mandeb 11% · Hormuz 8.7% · Malacca 2.0% (the route model covers 100% of its named imports) modelled

Not on file

  • A cited share of imports through Hormuz
  • Import dependence
  • Oil stocks in days
  • A headline line
  • Supply routes into it

Dashed underline = low confidence.

Flows as of 2025, measured moves 2Q 2026; each figure shows its own period.

Sources in this profile

Tap any number for its source, period, licence and confidence. Modelled shares come from Strature’s route model, not from a cited figure.

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    Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation.

    No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us. Company shares, where shown, are as published by the named source; naming a company is not a view on it or its securities. Research, not advice.

    Country analysis

    Questions our briefs address

    The questions our published briefs address that touch the Czech Republic.

    Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

    Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Czech Republic

    Czechia took 10.6% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2025. The share rose to 28.0% in Jan-Aug 2026 after Russian pipeline crude stopped. Gas, fertiliser and exports barely touch the Gulf.

    Theme band Low

    10.6%

    Saudi share of crude imports, 2025

    28%

    Saudi share of crude imports, Jan-Aug 2026 (context)

    7.7%

    Russian share of crude imports, 2025 (none in Jan-Aug 2026)

    0.92%

    Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran, 2025

    Read the full panel

    Risks

    • One Gulf supplier: Saudi Arabia supplied 10.6% of Czech crude imports in 2025, about 0.73 Mt. In Jan-Aug 2026 it shipped about 1.30 Mt, 28.0% of imports. Russian crude, 58.1% in 2023, has stopped.
    • Aramco told at least two European customers it would supply no contract crude the next month, Bloomberg reported in Sep 2026, after attacks shut its East-West pipeline. Orlen, whose unit Orlen Unipetrol runs the Czech refineries, secured 16 extra deliveries elsewhere for its refineries in Poland, Czechia and Lithuania. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Crude arrivals fell when the war began: about 0.35 Mt arrived in March 2026, about half the January volume.
    • Pump prices: diesel rose from about 32.9 to 48.5 crowns a litre between mid-February and early April 2026 (aggregator estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
    • Price: the EIA expects Brent to average US$105 a barrel in 4Q 2026, against 69.0 in 2025.

    Opportunities

    • Most crude comes from outside the Gulf: Azerbaijan 42.4%, Norway 20.9% and Kazakhstan 18.4% in 2025.
    • The TAL pipeline from Trieste carried 6.3 Mt to Czechia in 2025, against 3.8 Mt in 2024. Its operator says most of its crude reaches Trieste by routes the conflict does not directly affect. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Gas, fertiliser and metals barely touch the Gulf directly: about 32 kt of LNG was imported in 2025, none of it Qatari, and the UAE supplied 0.82% of unwrought aluminium.

    Uncertainties

    • Eurostat records the country of origin, not the loading port. Saudi crude to Europe in 2026 may have loaded on the Red Sea, outside the Strait; this reading counts it by origin. Arrivals continued through the Mar-Jun closure. Estimate from press or commentary
    • Saudi Arabia and Iraq were 12% of TAL volume in 2025; the share for this year is not published. Estimate from press or commentary
    • EU neighbours hide first origin: Poland supplied 42.9% of Czech urea and 66.6% of its helium in 2025, and their own Gulf content is not known.

    What to watch

    • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could stop Saudi loadings inside the Gulf again.
    • MonthlyCzech crude imports by origin in Eurostat's monthly trade data.
    • MonthlyOrlen spot crude purchases and any further reports on Aramco contract supply.
    • WeeklyCzech pump prices in the EU Weekly Oil Bulletin.

    Exposure by channel

    Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
    ChannelFigureBandPublished line
    Crude oilEnergy10.6% 2025Share of crude imports (HS 2709) from Saudi Arabia (quantity), 2025LowHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%

    Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

    Czech crude imports by supplier, 2025 (quantity share %)
    Share of crude imports from Azerbaijan (quantity): 42.4% (2025)Azerbaijan42.4Share of crude imports (HS 2709) from Saudi Arabia (quantity), 2025: 10.6% (2025)Saudi Arabia10.6Share of crude imports from Russia (quantity): 7.7% (2025)Russia7.7

    GulfElsewhere

    Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat, EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 (DS-045409).

    Briefs and questions

    Sources cited

    Estimates from press or commentary

    Our calculations

    • Share of goods exports going to GCC states and Iran: 0.92% (= 2,308,104,659 / 251,216,296,706 × 100)
    • Saudi crude to replace if Gulf loadings stop for 3 months, at the Jan-Aug 2026 rate: 485,724 t (= 1,295,265 t / 8 months × 3)

    Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 28 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

    ISO 3166-1 name: Czech Republic (CZE). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

    Sources and licences

    No figure on this page yet.

    Cite this page Strature, “Czech Republic”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/cze/, 31 Oct 2026.

    • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
    • General research, not advice.
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