Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Serbia
Serbia took 37.8% of its crude from Iraq in 2024 (1.08 Mt), through one refinery and one pipeline; US sanctions on the refiner, NIS (US Treasury), interrupted its crude supply from Oct 2025 (NIS).
Theme band Medium
37.8%
Iraqi share of crude imports, 2024
1.08
Iraqi crude, Mt, 2024
36est.
Days Pancevo was halted after US sanctions took effect (reported)
Read the full panel
Risks
- Iraqi crude, 1.08 of 2.64 Mt in 2024, is the largest single supply line for Serbia's only refiner.
- US sanctions on NIS took full effect on 9 Oct 2025, when its US licence lapsed (US Treasury; NIS); Adria deliveries stopped and Pancevo was halted for 36 days (reported). NIS supplies about 80% of Serbian fuel. Estimate from press or commentary
- Replacement barrels are priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
Opportunities
- Caspian crude, which loads outside the Gulf, already supplies over half: Kazakhstan 31.9% and Azerbaijan 26.3%.
- MOL agreed in principle in Jan 2026 to acquire Gazprom Neft's 56.15% stake in NIS, subject to US and Serbian approvals; completion was not confirmed as of 6 Oct 2026, and MOL reported further US approval to continue the talks (MOL). We have not assessed how the sale bears on the sanctions.
Uncertainties
- Whether the Iraqi crude reaching Serbia loads at Basra (inside the Strait) or Ceyhan; trade data do not show it.
- Whether the MOL purchase completes and sanctions on NIS are lifted, which decides whether Adria can carry any crude; the US licence for the talks was reported to run to 30 Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Basra loadings again.
- 30 Oct 2026End of the reported US licence for MOL's NIS talks; the purchase, agreed in principle in Jan 2026, was not completed as of 6 Oct 2026. Status of US sanctions on NIS.
- MonthlyPancevo runs and crude arrivals by origin.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oilEnergy | 37.8% 2024Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value) | Medium | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Gulf
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), SRB HS 2709 imports by partner 2024.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Which Gulf exporters have a way to ship oil around the Strait of Hormuz? Iraq ships through the Strait
- S-001 · How does a strike reach buyers of Gulf energy? F-0074 Renewed strike, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), SRB HS 2709 imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US Treasury press release jy2777, Treasury Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia by Targeting Russia's Oil Production and Exports (10 Jan 2025) (Jan 2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- NIS Group, Interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, note 2.3 Implication of imposed US Sanctions (Oct-Dec 2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- MOL Group press release, MOL signed Heads of Agreement to acquire majority ownership of Serbian NIS (19 Jan 2026) (Jan 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- MOL Group investor news: MOL has received further U.S. approval to continue NIS negotiations (1 Oct 2026) (Oct 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Wikipedia, Naftna Industrija Srbije (read 6 Oct 2026) (Oct 2025-Jan 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- European Western Balkans: MOL receives a new license extension to continue talks on acquisition of Russian stake in NIS (1 Oct 2026, citing Radio Television of Serbia) (Oct 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Iraqi crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.27 Mt (= 1.08 × 3 / 12)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz