Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Lithuania
Lithuania's one refinery took 41.1% of its crude from Saudi Arabia in 2024 (3.71 Mt). Gas has no direct Gulf link: Klaipeda LNG took no Gulf cargoes in 2025. Medium band, on crude.
41.1%
Saudi share of crude imports, 2024
3.71
Saudi crude, Mt, 2024
2.4
LNG via Klaipeda, Mt, 2025 (none from the Gulf)
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Risks
- Largest supplier, one refinery: Saudi Arabia shipped 3.71 of 8.80 Mt of crude in 2024.
- Replacement crude is priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
- Any loss of Saudi cargoes falls on the Mazeikiai refinery, the country's only refinery.
Opportunities
- Klaipeda LNG imports rose 35% in 2025 to 2.4 Mt with no Gulf cargoes, and the terminal supplies Finland and Poland.
- Norway, Algeria, the UK and the US already supply nearly all the remaining crude (28.5%, 11.4%, 11.2%, 7.9%).
Uncertainties
- How much of the Saudi crude loaded at Yanbu on the Red Sea, outside the Strait; trade data do not show the port.
- Later origin data were not read; the 2024 split may have shifted.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Saudi Gulf loadings again.
- MonthlyCrude arrivals at Butinge by origin.
- MonthlyBrent and the EIA outlook (105 in Q4 2026).
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oilEnergy | 41.1% 2024Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value) | Medium | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Gulf
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), LTU HS 2709 imports by partner 2024.
Briefs and questions
- Q-023 Saudi crude reaching buyers with Hormuz closed
- S-001 · How does a strike reach buyers of Gulf energy? F-0074 Renewed strike, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), LTU HS 2709 imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- GIIGNL Annual Report 2026 (2025 trade; data GIIGNL and Kpler) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Saudi crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.93 Mt (= 3.71 × 3 / 12)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz