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Latvia

EU spending in Latvia averaged 4.23% of GNI in 2024-2025, equal to 74.0% of its public investment in 2024. The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity, so every government's vote bears on it. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Latvia?

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  • Region Europe · Central and Eastern Europe
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Your exposure

Latvia in our readings

Latvia is in 3 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Europe's right turn High
  • Russia sanctions Medium
  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Elevated
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Latvia on the outlook map

Dates for Latvia on the risk calendar

The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Latvia

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Show all 3 risks that reach Latvia
  • Europe's right turn High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

  • Russia sanctions Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Latvia

All world risks that touch Latvia

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Latvia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026 Commission's preliminary assessments of the final recovery-fund payment requests. Europe's right turn
  • 26-27 Nov 2026 Special European Council on the 2028-2034 budget (to be confirmed). Europe's right turn
  • 17-18 Dec 2026 European Council; the 2028-2034 budget is on the agenda. Europe's right turn
  • 31 Dec 2026 Deadline for the last Commission payments from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Europe's right turn
  • 18 Apr 2027 French presidential election, first round; the second round is on 2 May 2027. World-risk card rk-europe-right-turn names it as the main path to the shift. Europe's right turn
  • 31 Jul 2027 Council Decision (CFSP) 2026/1437 of 25 June 2026 provides that Decision 2014/512/CFSP, on the EU's restrictive measures, applies until 31 Jul 2027; a later date needs a new Council decision. Russia sanctions

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Latvia?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Latvia, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Latvia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Latvia.

Europe's right turn · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Europe's right turn: what is at stake for Latvia

EU spending in Latvia averaged 4.23% of GNI in 2024-2025, equal to 74.0% of its public investment in 2024. The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity, so every government's vote bears on it.

Theme band High

4.23%

of GNI, EU spending excl. administration (2024-2025 average)

74%

of general government investment (2024)

EUR9.3bn

EUR bn proposed for Latvia's partnership plan, 2028-2034

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity. The negotiating box of 10 Oct 2026 sets EUR 1,622,011m in 2025 prices, and one government can hold up a deal.
  • Cohesion spending rose from EUR 538.0m in 2024 to EUR 731.2m in 2025; the next budget puts cohesion and farm money in one heading of EUR 914,179m in 2025 prices.
  • The recovery fund paid EUR 293.4m in Latvia in 2025; the last Commission payments are due by 31 Dec 2026.
  • The EU's EUR 90bn Support Loan for Ukraine covers 2026-2027 only; if EU money for Ukraine shrank, member states could be asked to carry more.

Opportunities

  • SAFE defence loans provisionally allot EUR 5.68bn to Latvia (press report, estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The proposal includes EUR 0.7bn for migration, security and home affairs and EUR 0.4bn from the Social Climate Fund.

Uncertainties

  • In the Saeima election of 3 Oct 2026 the United List won 35.3% of the vote and six lists entered parliament (official results); the new government's position in EU budget talks was not found in the sources read.
  • The proposed EUR 9.3bn plan is in current prices and depends on the final deal.
  • The vehicle line is held: exports of vehicles and parts, EUR 0.95bn in 2024, include re-exports.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026Commission's preliminary assessments of the final recovery-fund payment requests.
  • 26-27 Nov 2026Special European Council on the 2028-2034 budget (to be confirmed).
  • 17-18 Dec 2026European Council; the 2028-2034 budget is on the agenda.
  • 31 Dec 2026Deadline for the last Commission payments from the Recovery and Resilience Facility.
  • 18 Apr 2027French presidential election, first round; the second round is on 2 May 2027. World-risk card rk-europe-right-turn names it as the main path to the shift.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Eu budgetRevenue4.23% of GNI 2024-2025EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025HighHigh ≥3.0% · Medium 2.0–3.0% · Low 1.0–2.0%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU spending in Latvia and Latvia's payments to the EU budget, EUR m
EU budget expenditure in the country, all headings incl. NextGenerationEU: EUR1,778.8m (2025)2025, expenditure in co…1,778.8EU budget expenditure in the country, all headings incl. NextGenerationEU: EUR1,688.8m (2024)2024, expenditure in co…1,688.8Own resources paid to the EU budget (total own resources): EUR372.9m (2025)2025, Own resources pai…372.9Own resources paid to the EU budget (total own resources): EUR354m (2024)2024, Own resources pai…354.0

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: European Commission, EU spending and revenue, data 2000-2025 (eu_budget_spending_and_revenue_2000-2025.xlsx).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025: 4.23% of GNI (= (share 2024 + share 2025) / 2)
  • EU spending in the country (excl. administration) relative to public investment: 74% of general government investment (= EU spending % of GNI (2024) / general government GFCF % of GDP (2024) × 100)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Russia sanctions · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Russia sanctions: what is at stake for Latvia

Latvia's goods exports to Russia were EUR 1,017.7m in 2025, 2.33% of GDP (Eurostat; Strature calculation). Eurostat records Russia as the partner for 14.1% of oil products imports in 2024 and 0.1% in 2025.

Theme band Medium

2.33%

of GDP: goods exports to Russia (2025, Strature calculation on Eurostat)

313.951

thousand t of LPG recorded from Russia (2024, partner as reported)

0.1%

of oil products imports from Russia (2025)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Goods exports to Russia were EUR 1,017.7m in 2025, 5.1% of goods exports (Eurostat).
  • Eurostat records Russia as the partner for 14.1% of Latvia's oil products imports in 2024, 331 thousand t of 2,344 thousand t (partner as reported).
  • Of the 331.017 thousand t of oil products recorded from Russia in 2024, 313.951 thousand t were LPG (Eurostat).
  • Council Regulation (EU) 2023/2878 (12th package) added LPG to Annex XXI of Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, whose Article 3i bars its import from Russia; contracts concluded before 19 Dec 2023 could be executed until 20 Dec 2024.
  • Card rk-rus-eu-rollover-veto, "A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date", is rated Elevated likelihood and Elevated impact. Decision 2014/512/CFSP applies until 31 Jul 2027.

Opportunities

  • Oil products recorded from Russia fell from 419.331 thousand t in 2023 to 331.017 thousand t in 2024 (Eurostat).
  • Card rk-rus-ukraine-ceasefire, "Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line", is rated Low likelihood and High impact. If measures eased after a ceasefire, the channels above could ease too.

Uncertainties

  • Eurostat's monthly data give 2.691 thousand t of oil products from Russia in 2025, 0.1% of imports; no 2025 annual figure by partner was found on 3 Nov 2026.
  • Remittances from all sources were 3.04% of GDP in 2024 (World Bank); no share from Russia was found in the sources read for this reading.
  • Fertiliser from Russia was 1.7% of imports by value in 2025, EUR 5 m of EUR 281 m (Eurostat), below the line.

What to watch

  • 31 Jul 2027Council Decision (CFSP) 2026/1437 of 25 June 2026 provides that Decision 2014/512/CFSP, on the EU's restrictive measures, applies until 31 Jul 2027; a later date needs a new Council decision.
  • YearlyEurostat annual oil imports by partner (nrg_ti_oil): the 2025 figure.
  • MonthlyEurostat Comext fertiliser imports by partner.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
EnergyEnergy0.1% 2025Share of oil products imports from RussiaBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Food agriFood and farming1.7% 2025Share of fertiliser imports (HS 31, value) from RussiaBelow lineHigh wheat ≥60%; fertiliser ≥50% · Medium wheat 40–60%; fertiliser 25–50% · Low wheat 25–40%; fertiliser 10–25%
TradeTrade2.33% of GDP 2025Goods exports to Russia as % of GDPMediumHigh exports ≥20% or ≥5% of GDP; imports ≥30% · Medium exports ≥10% or ≥2% of GDP; imports ≥20% · Low exports ≥5% or ≥1% of GDP; imports ≥10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Russia's share of Latvia's oil products imports, 2024 and 2025 (%)
Share of oil products imports from Russia: 14.1% (2024)202414.1Share of oil products imports from Russia: 0.1% (2025)20250.1

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat, energy imports by partner country, annual (nrg_ti_oil), 2024; Eurostat, imports of crude oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm), oil products (O4600), Latvia, Jan-Dec 2025 summed.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Goods exports to Russia as % of GDP: 2.33% of GDP (= goods exports to Russia / GDP × 100)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Latvia

Latvia's Gulf link is small: Saudi Arabia supplied 18.28% of jet fuel imports in 2025, possibly loaded on the Red Sea. Gulf producers sent 1.64% of oil products; Lithuania sent 52.05%.

Theme band Low

18.3%

of jet fuel imports from Saudi Arabia, by weight (2025; route caveat)

1.64%

of all oil product imports from the Gulf (2025)

52%

of oil product imports from Lithuania (2025)

0%

of jet fuel imports from the Gulf (Jan-Jul 2026, context; does not set the band)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Saudi Arabia sent 27.6 kt of the 150.7 kt of jet fuel imported in 2025; a renewed stop could take that supply out.
  • Most oil products come from Lithuania (52.05% in 2025), whose crude imports were 46.0% Saudi by value. A Saudi stop could reach Latvia through that supply chain.
  • Bloomberg reported in Sep 2026, citing unnamed sources, that Aramco told at least two European customers it would supply no contract crude the next month; Orlen secured 16 extra deliveries for its refineries in Poland, Czechia and Lithuania (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The Gulf supplier changes from year to year: in 2024 it was Kuwait, with 15.0% of jet imports.

Opportunities

  • Other suppliers covered jet fuel in Jan-Jul 2026: no Gulf cargo arrived, and the US sent 13.3 kt of 66.0 kt.
  • Urea imports took no Gulf supply in 2025: none of the 41,538 t imported came from Gulf producers.

Uncertainties

  • The Saudi jet cargoes may have loaded at Red Sea ports outside the Strait; they are counted by origin.
  • How much Lithuanian diesel and jet output rests on Saudi crude after the cut in Saudi contract supply reported in Sep 2026 is not measured here. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The Jan-Jul 2026 shares rest on monthly Eurostat data that can be revised; the band rests on 2025.

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike on Iran could close the Strait again.
  • MonthlyEurostat jet fuel arrivals by origin: do Saudi or Kuwaiti cargoes return?
  • MonthlyEurostat crude arrivals in Lithuania by origin: the Saudi share.
  • As reportedAramco contract allocations to European refiners.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined products (JET)Energy18.3% 2025Share of jet fuel (kerosene-type, SIEC O4661) imports from Gulf producers (weight)LowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Refined productsEnergy1.64% 2025Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight)Below lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming0% 2025Share of urea (CN 310210) imports from Gulf producers (weight)Below lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Exports to the GulfTrade0.79% 2025Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran (value)Below lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Gulf share of Latvian oil product imports, 2025 and Jan-Jul 2026 (%)
Share of jet fuel (kerosene-type, SIEC O4661) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 18.3% (2025)Jet fuel (kerosene-…18.28Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 1.64% (2025)Oil products (SIEC…1.64Share of oil products imports from Gulf producers (weight), Jan-Jul 2026: 0.47% (Jan-Jul 2026)Oil products0.47Share of jet fuel imports from Gulf producers (weight), Jan-Jul 2026: 0% (Jan-Jul 2026)Jet fuel0.00

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat, Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm).

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Saudi jet fuel to replace if Saudi loadings stop for 3 months, on 2025 volumes: 6.9 kt (= Saudi jet fuel imports 2025 (27.55 kt, g2-1 / t3g-1) × 3/12)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Latvia (LVA). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Latvia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/lva/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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