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World risk · Finance and markets

Latvia starts 2027 without an adopted state budget

The test By 31 Dec 2026, the Saeima has not adopted the 2027 state budget law.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. United List 35.3% and 41 of 100 seats; six parties in the Saeima; Kulbergs PM since May 2026; three governments since 2022 [1]
  2. President asked Kulbergs to form a government; Latvia First 17, National Alliance 10, New Unity 7 seats; United List with NA and New Unity hold 58; Saeima first sits 3 Nov [2]

Why it matters

Latvia elected a new Saeima on 3 Oct 2026; Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's United List won 41 of 100 seats and was asked to form the next government. The new Saeima first sits on 3 Nov, and the finance ministry's 2027 budget timetable leaves final decisions to the new Saeima and Cabinet. A Latvian outlet reported in April that a temporary budget would be prepared if no new Cabinet won confidence by about mid-November.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: new Saeima sits 3 Nov, budget base reviewed 10 Nov; April contingency plan for a temporary budget. Brakes: incumbent PM leads; current partners give 58 of 100 seats.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case no budget law on 1 Jan 2027.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Budget 2027 schedule: bases due 5 Oct, Cabinet review 10 Nov 2026; updated schedule within two weeks of the new Saeima's confidence in a Cabinet; final decisions with the new Saeima and Cabinet [3] (25 Feb 2026)
  • A temporary budget for 2027 to be prepared if no Cabinet wins confidence by about mid-November; extra cut of EUR 89.4m planned for 2027 [4] (2 Apr 2026)
  • Kulbergs, as PM nominee, said the state budget must be reviewed to cut spending [5] (19 May 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Latvia starts 2027 without an adopted state budget. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Latvia starts 2027 without an adopted state budgetImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Latvia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · LATVIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

By 31 Dec 2026, the Saeima has not adopted the 2027 state budget law.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. SpendingSpending runs under interim rules; new programmes and planned cuts wait (Strature's view) [4].
  3. DefenceA late budget would delay new defence commitments (Strature's view).

Countries 1

  • Latvia primary

Who is exposed

Countries
Latvia

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    On time

    A three-party coalition is confirmed in November and passes the budget in December.

  2. S2

    Short slip

    The budget passes in the first weeks of 2027.

  3. S3

    Long slip

    Coalition trouble pushes adoption into spring.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A government confirmed by 20 Nov 2026
S2The budget law reaches the Saeima after 1 Dec 2026
S3Talks widen beyond the three parties

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 First sitting of the new Saeima [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 10 Nov 2026 Cabinet reviews fiscal risks, forecasts and the 2027 budget base [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Dec 2026 Deadline for the event (judged on this date) [3] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · LATVIA · strature.net

The other side

A quick return of the outgoing coalition under the same PM would give Latvia continuity and a budget built on the spending review begun in 2026 (Strature's view) [2][5].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Parlamentswahlen in Lettland 2026. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung · 6 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Rinkevics proposes Kulbergs form Latvia's government. ua.news (LSM English) · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Preparation schedule for #Budget2027 submitted to the Government. Ministry of Finance of Latvia · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Spring Sowing of the Sequester: Latvia Prepares a Survival Budget for 2027. BB.LV · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Latvia: PM nominee drops Progressives from coalition talks. Via Baltica · 19 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks