Croatia's governing coalition loses the Homeland Movement
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Homeland Movement formally leaves Plenković's government, or the government loses a confidence vote (government statement or two news sources).
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Telegram.hr reported DP threatening to break the coalition over a memorial park for NDH soldiers (via a press digest) [2]
Why it matters
Prime Minister Andrej Plenković's HDZ has governed since May 2024 with the Homeland Movement (DP) as junior partner. The coalition has had public disputes in 2026, most recently a reported DP threat in October over a memorial to NDH soldiers. Plenković said in February that the majority is stable.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: a reported DP threat in Oct 2026 (one digest); the February and June 2026 disputes. Brakes: the cost of losing office for both partners; Penava's June 2026 statement accepting HDZ as partner; Plenković's stated priority on stability. One thin driver held by a strong blocker = 3.
The other facts on file (4)
- Plenković's third government confirmed 17 May 2024 by 79 to 61; 15 of 18 ministers from HDZ, three from DP as junior partner [5] (17 May 2024)
- A video of DP MP Dabro split the coalition; HSLS threatened to withdraw support; Plenković: no early elections planned, stability his fundamental position [1] (28 Feb 2026)
- Penava defended a DP declaration on Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina that Plenković opposed; said DP accepts HDZ as partner but may have its own stance [4] (11 Jun 2026)
- Ćorić confirmed as finance minister 76 to 52 [3] (29 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Croatia's governing coalition loses the Homeland MovementImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Croatia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Homeland Movement formally leaves Plenković's government, or the government loses a confidence vote (government statement or two news sources).
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- GovernmentMonths of a minority government or a campaign would put the budget and defence plans in doubt (Strature's view).
- MontenegroA change in Zagreb could change Croatia's hold on Montenegro's EU chapters (Strature's view).
Countries 2
- Croatia primary
- Montenegro
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Croatia, Montenegro
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Rows contained
Disputes are settled inside the coalition.
- S2
DP walks
DP leaves and HDZ seeks a new partner or governs in minority.
- S3
Early vote
A failed confidence vote or a lost budget leads to early elections.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A joint HDZ-DP statement on the memorial question |
| S2 | DP ministers resign |
| S3 | The 2027 budget vote fails |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- Montenegro has not closed all its EU chapters by 31 Oct 2027 Drives: A change of government in Zagreb would put Croatia's hold on Montenegro's chapters in doubt.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Plenković: The parliamentary majority is stable. HRT (Glas Hrvatske) · 28 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Croatia: a €12,000 family trip to Strasbourg. FrontPages.EU · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Croatia. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Penava odgovorio Plenkoviću: 'Znali su. Mogu to i dokazati...'. tportal.hr · 11 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Croatian Parliament votes confidence in new government. Government of the Republic of Croatia · 17 May 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks