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Malta

Electrical and electronic goods were 28.0% of Malta's goods exports in 2025, chips alone 20.0%, and Taiwan supplied about half of the chips Malta imported from outside the EU. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Malta?

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  • Region Europe · Western Europe
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Malta in our readings

Malta is in 3 of our country readings.

  • Chipmaking in Taiwan Medium
  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low
  • Europe's right turn Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Low
  • Technology and cyber Elevated
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Malta on the outlook map

Dates for Malta on the risk calendar

The other side: 3 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Malta

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Show all 3 risks that reach Malta
  • Chipmaking in Taiwan Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

    Taiwan

  • Europe's right turn Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Malta

All world risks that touch Malta

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Malta makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Monthly Eurostat trade data: Malta's chip imports by partner and its electronics exports. Chipmaking in Taiwan
  • Monthly Taiwan's export statistics (Ministry of Finance): chip exports by destination. Chipmaking in Taiwan
  • Late 2027 End of the 18 months over which the EUR 250m Kirkop project is reported to run, from May 2026 (press report). Chipmaking in Taiwan
  • Ongoing Reports of leading-edge volume production outside Taiwan, the main X-001 signpost. Chipmaking in Taiwan
  • Monthly Eurostat gas oil and diesel arrivals by origin: the Kuwaiti and Saudi share of Maltese imports. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Quarterly Government fiscal data: the cost of keeping fuel and energy prices fixed. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Malta?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Malta, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Malta on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Malta.

Chipmaking in Taiwan · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Chipmaking in Taiwan: what is at stake for Malta

Electrical and electronic goods were 28.0% of Malta's goods exports in 2025, chips alone 20.0%, and Taiwan supplied about half of the chips Malta imported from outside the EU.

Theme band Medium

28%

of goods exports are electrical and electronic goods (2025, Eurostat)

20%

of goods exports are chips (HS 8542, 2025, Eurostat)

17.6%

of chip imports from Taiwan (2025, Eurostat)

49.6%

of chip imports from outside the EU came from Taiwan (2025, Eurostat)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Chips alone were 20.0% of goods exports in 2025, about EUR 0.69bn of EUR 3.46bn, so a break in chip supply chains would reach Malta's exports directly.
  • Taiwan supplied 17.6% of chip imports in 2025 and 21.0% in 2024; outside the EU it was the largest origin in both years, 49.6% in 2025.
  • The export base is narrow: electrical and electronic goods were 30.0% of goods exports in 2024 and 28.0% in 2025.
  • Outside estimate, not a Strature forecast: Bloomberg Economics' 2026 model puts the EU's first-year loss in a war over Taiwan at 10.9% of GDP, as reported in the press; no Maltese figure is published. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Malta is one of 14 member states in the EU's second microelectronics project of common European interest, approved on 8 Jun 2023 with up to EUR 8.1bn of public support.
  • A EUR 250m chip factory project in Kirkop, reported as Malta's largest foreign direct investment, entered its next phase in May 2026 (press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • Trade inside the EU is recorded by country of consignment: chips sent from France, Portugal or Italy (64.5% of the 2025 total from EU members) may have been made elsewhere, Taiwan included, so Taiwan's share may be understated.
  • The chip import bill is small (EUR 0.633bn in 2025, under the theme's US$1bn line for chip imports), so shares can swing with a few large orders; Malta is in the theme through its export base.

What to watch

  • MonthlyEurostat trade data: Malta's chip imports by partner and its electronics exports.
  • MonthlyTaiwan's export statistics (Ministry of Finance): chip exports by destination.
  • Late 2027End of the 18 months over which the EUR 250m Kirkop project is reported to run, from May 2026 (press report).
  • OngoingReports of leading-edge volume production outside Taiwan, the main X-001 signpost.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Chip-using industryTrade28% of goods exports 2025Electrical and electronic goods (HS 85 + HS 8471) share of goods exportsMediumHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40%
Chip importsDependence17.6% 2025Share of electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) imports from TaiwanBelow lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 25–40% · Low 15–25%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Malta's electronics exports: share of goods exports (%), electrical and electronic goods 2024 and 2025, chips 2025
Electrical and electronic goods (HS 85 + HS 8471) share of goods exports: 30% of goods exports (2024)202430Electrical and electronic goods (HS 85 + HS 8471) share of goods exports: 28% of goods exports (2025)202528Electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542) share of goods exports: 20% of goods exports (2025)Electronic integrated…20

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat Comext DS-045409: Malta exports, all products and HS 85, 8471, 8542, all partners, 2024 and 2025; Eurostat Comext DS-045409: Malta exports, all products and HS 85, 8471, 8542, all partners, 2025 and 2024.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Chipmaking in Taiwan →

Europe's right turn · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Europe's right turn: what is at stake for Malta

EU spending in Malta averaged 1.74% of GNI in 2024-2025, so the 2028-2034 EU budget, which needs unanimity, is its stake in Europe's right turn. Low band.

Theme band Low

1.74%

EU spending excl. administration, % of GNI, 2024-2025 average

52%

EU spending relative to public investment, 2024

EUR1.3bn

Proposed partnership plan allocation, EUR bn, 2028-2034

EUR422.5m

EU budget expenditure in Malta, EUR m, 2025

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The 2028-2034 EU budget needs unanimity, so one government that changes course after an election can hold it up or press for different conditions.
  • EU spending in Malta was equal to 52% of general government investment in 2024, a measure of scale, not the share EU money funds; a smaller EU budget could weigh on public investment.
  • The Commission's proposal gives Malta EUR 1.3bn for 2028-2034, of which EUR 0.3bn for migration, security and home affairs; the talks can change both.
  • Recovery and Resilience Facility spending fell to EUR 22.7m in 2025 from EUR 59.0m in 2024.

Opportunities

  • EU spending rose to 1.82% of GNI in 2025 from 1.66% in 2024.
  • The Pact on Migration and Asylum has applied since 12 June 2026, and the proposed plan sets aside EUR 0.3bn for migration, security and home affairs.

Uncertainties

  • Malta also pays into the EU budget: own resources were EUR 193.8m in 2025; the band measures gross receipts, not the net balance.
  • Payments move with programme cycles: cohesion spending was EUR 77.0m in 2025 against EUR 82.1m in 2024.

What to watch

  • 26-27 Nov 2026 (tbc)Special European Council on the 2028-2034 EU budget.
  • 17-18 Dec 2026European Council with the 2028-2034 EU budget on its agenda.
  • 18 Apr 2027French presidential election, first round; second round on 2 May 2027. Strature's world-risk card names this vote as the most likely route for the shift.
  • YearlyCommission data on EU spending and revenue by member state.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Eu budgetRevenue1.74% of GNI 2024-2025EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025LowHigh ≥3.0% · Medium 2.0–3.0% · Low 1.0–2.0%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU spending in Malta (% of GNI)
EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 1.82% of GNI (2025) (our calculation)2025*1.82EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025: 1.74% of GNI (2024-2025) (our calculation)2024-2025*1.74EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 1.66% of GNI (2024) (our calculation)2024*1.66

Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI, average of 2024 and 2025: 1.74% of GNI (= (share 2024 + share 2025) / 2)
  • EU spending in the country (excl. administration) relative to public investment: 52% of general government investment (= EU spending % of GNI (2024) / general government GFCF % of GDP (2024) × 100)
  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 1.82% of GNI (= (EU expenditure incl. NGEU - heading 7 administration) / GNI × 100)
  • EU spending in the country excluding administration, % of GNI: 1.66% of GNI (= (EU expenditure incl. NGEU - heading 7 administration) / GNI × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Malta

Malta's Gulf exposure is Low, through diesel: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia supplied 17.72% of gas oil and diesel imports in 2025. Fuel prices held fixed by subsidy move the cost to the budget (press report).

Theme band Low

17.7%

of gas oil and diesel imports from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (2025)

9.34%

of gas oil and diesel imports from Kuwait (Jan-Jul 2026, context; does not set the band)

7.12%

of refined product imports from the Gulf (2025)

EUR392mest.

EUR m on energy subsidies, 2026 estimate (press report)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • A renewed closure could cut Gulf diesel again: Kuwait sent 103.0 kt and Saudi Arabia 85.2 kt of the 1,062.2 kt of gas oil and diesel imported in 2025.
  • The state carries the price: the Finance Minister put energy subsidies at EUR 392m for 2026 and EUR 1.3bn over the last five years (press report, Sep 2026). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The diesel subsidy bill for 2026 was projected at EUR 75m in September, against EUR 30m three months earlier (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Price: the EIA expects Brent to average US$105 a barrel in 4Q 2026, against 69.0 in 2025.

Opportunities

  • Most diesel comes from European suppliers: Spain supplied 35.1%, Belgium 18.9% and Italy 15.1% in 2025.
  • Gas for power does not touch the Gulf: none of the 380.59 million m3 imported in 2024 came from Gulf producers.
  • Suppliers outside the Gulf covered more in 2026: the Gulf share of diesel imports was 9.34% in Jan-Jul 2026, all Kuwaiti.

Uncertainties

  • Eurostat records the country of origin, not the loading port. Saudi diesel may have loaded on the Red Sea, outside the Strait; this reading counts it by origin. Kuwait alone was 9.7% in 2025.
  • The band year may be an outlier: the Gulf share was 9.06% in 2024, against 17.72% in 2025.
  • The shipping channel is not measured: Malta's register holds 91.3 million gross tonnes (press report), but no registry or bunkering revenue tied to the Gulf route was found in the sources searched to early Nov 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike could stop Kuwaiti loadings inside the Gulf again.
  • MonthlyEurostat gas oil and diesel arrivals by origin: the Kuwaiti and Saudi share of Maltese imports.
  • QuarterlyGovernment fiscal data: the cost of keeping fuel and energy prices fixed.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined products (diesel)Energy17.7% 2025Share of gas oil and diesel (SIEC O4671) imports from Gulf producers (weight)LowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
Refined productsEnergy7.12% 2025Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight)Below lineHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
LNGEnergy0% 2024Share of natural gas imports from Gulf producersBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Exports to the GulfTrade2.32% 2025Share of goods exports to GCC states and Iran (value)Below lineHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Gulf share of Maltese gas oil and diesel imports, 2024, 2025 and Jan-Jul 2026, and of all refined products, 2025 (%)
Share of gas oil and diesel (SIEC O4671) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 17.7% (2025)202517.7Share of gas oil and diesel (SIEC O4671) imports from Gulf producers (weight), Jan-Jul 2026: 9.34% (Jan-Jul 2026)Jan-Jul 20269.3Share of gas oil and diesel (SIEC O4671) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 9.06% (2024)20249.1Share of oil products (SIEC O4600) imports from Gulf producers (weight): 7.12% (2025)Oil products (SIEC…7.1

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat, Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm), thousand tonnes; Eurostat, Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm).

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Gulf gas oil and diesel to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months (on 2025 volumes): 47.1 thousand t (= 2025 Gulf gas oil and diesel imports (188.2 kt) × 3/12)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

ISO 3166-1 name: Malta (MLT). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Malta”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/mlt/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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