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World risk · Energy and resources

A power cut hits most of Malta again

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, an unplanned power cut leaves most of Malta, or more than half of its electricity consumers, without power for one hour or more at once, as reported by Enemalta, the government, or two news sources.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration1
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Malta had a widespread blackout on 8 Oct 2026; Enemalta attributed it to human error, not to generation or supply [1]
  2. The interconnector IC1 to Sicily was out of service for about eight days from 27 Oct 2026 for IC2 work, after an earlier October switch-off; Malta relied on its own generation [1]
  3. IC2, a 122 km, 225 MW cable, is meant to double Malta's interconnection capacity; estimated cost EUR 300m, about EUR 261m from EU funds [1]

Why it matters

Malta had a wave of power cuts in a July 2026 heatwave, a long cut in Gozo in late August and a widespread blackout on 8 Oct 2026. Its grid links to Europe through one cable to Sicily, which was out of service for about eight days from 27 Oct 2026 for work on a second cable. Summer 2027 falls inside the window.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: more IC2 tie-in work on a single-cable grid; summer peak demand in 2027 inside the window; repeated wide cuts. Brakes: on-island plants as back-up; the October cut was an error, not a shortfall; grid works and a planned Malta-Gozo link. Not 6: no cited cut is shown to reach most of Malta.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Valletta lost power on 22 Jul 2026 after a wave of cuts across the country over several days; PM Abela apologised; Enemalta blamed distribution faults under extreme heat and record demand [2] (22 Jul 2026)
  • Outages hit several localities in the July 2026 heatwave; Enemalta cited four separate and unrelated cable faults [4] (21 Jul 2026)
  • Two of the three 33 kV feeders supplying Gozo failed in late August 2026; the opposition leader's aides said more than half of Gozo lost power [5] (29 Aug 2026)
  • Some areas of Gozo were without power for more than 24 hours in the late-August 2026 outages; Enemalta's nine-year plan includes a new 132 kV Malta-Gozo link [6] (9 Sep 2026)
  • Malta's population on 1 Jan 2026: 588,254 [3] (1 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

11. A power cut hits most of Malta again: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 A power cut hits mostof Malta againLow impact · possiblePOWER CUT HITS MOST OF MALTA0200 kmat 36°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. A power cut hits most of Malta again: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Power cut hitsmost of MaltaPOWER CUT HITS MOST OF MALTA0200 kmat 36°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, an unplanned power cut leaves most of Malta, or more than half of its electricity consumers, without power for one hour or more at once, as reported by Enemalta, the government, or two news sources.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. BusinessOffices, shops and restaurants lose power; restaurants lost food in July [2].
  3. StateMinistries and courts stop work; a trial was interrupted in July [2].
  4. PoliticsThe opposition demanded compensation for families and firms [2].

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Malta, Italy.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Grid holds

    IC2 work ends without further wide cuts and summer 2027 passes with local faults only.

  2. S2

    Summer strain

    Heat and record demand again bring cuts across many localities, short of most of Malta.

  3. S3

    Island-wide cut

    A fault, an error or a heatwave takes down most of the grid.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No island-wide outage reported by Enemalta through August 2027
S2A new demand record in July 2027
S3Another IC1 outage for IC2 tie-in work

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jul 2027 Summer peak demand; the 2026 cuts came in a July heatwave [2] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MALTA · strature.net

The other side

Malta's own plants carried the island through the October cable outage [1], and the 8 Oct blackout was put down to human error rather than a shortfall in supply [1]. IC2 should double interconnection capacity once in service [1].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Malta-Sicily electricity interconnector to shut down for eight days. Italpress · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Malta's capital hit by power cut as temperatures soar. Reuters (via Internazionale) · 22 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Population on 1 January (tps00001), Malta. Eurostat · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Heatwave strains Malta grid as power cuts hit localities. Italpress · 21 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Gozo blackout sparks fury amid sweltering heatwave. Italpress · 29 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Enemalta defends Gozo grid investment after power cuts hit recently upgraded areas. BusinessNow · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks