Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Iceland
Iceland bought 12.9% of its fuel imports from the Gulf in 2024, all from Kuwait, down from 22.0% in 2023: Low band. It may also gain: aluminium, 26.4% of goods exports, competes with Gulf smelters.
12.9%
Gulf (Kuwait) share of fuel imports, 2024
26.4%
Aluminium share of goods exports, 2023
US$2.05bn
Unwrought aluminium exports, US$ million, 2024
Read the full panel
Risks
- An island with no refinery buys finished fuel: Kuwait supplied 151 kt in 2024, and Gulf product flows recovered least after the Strait reopened.
- Fuel costs follow Brent, which averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
- Aviation and fishing fleets run on imported diesel and jet; the Gulf share was 22.0% only a year earlier.
Opportunities
- Iceland's smelters (over 850 kt a year) supply a market that lost Gulf metal: Alba declared force majeure on 4 Mar 2026 and halted 3 lines. Estimate from press or commentary
- Gulf states supply about 20% of world raw aluminium exports (estimate); Iceland's US$2,047m of 2024 metal exports, 72.5% to the Netherlands, competes for the same European buyers. Estimate from press or commentary
Uncertainties
- The aluminium gain is not measured: no 2026 price or premium series was read in this pass. Estimate from press or commentary
- Whether Kuwaiti fuel cargoes were replaced from Norway, which already supplies 48.1%.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could cut Gulf fuel and metal shipments again.
- MonthlyRotterdam aluminium premium and LME price.
- MonthlyIcelandic fuel imports by origin (Statistics Iceland).
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined productsEnergy | 12.9% 2024Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value) | Low | High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfElsewhere
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 2710 imports by partner 2023; UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 2710 imports by partner 2024.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Products recovered least
- S-001 · How does a strike reach buyers of Gulf energy? F-0074 Renewed strike, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 2710 imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 7601 exports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API), ISL HS 2710 imports by partner 2023 (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Argus, Aluminium Bahrain issues force majeure on shipments (Mar 2026) (Mar 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Wikipedia, Economy of Iceland (read 6 Oct 2026) (2019; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (read 6 Oct 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Aluminium share of goods exports: 26.4% (= 1800 / 6808)
- Kuwaiti products to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 38 kt (= 151 × 3 / 12)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz