Sign in Get in touch
Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Angola

Angola paid public external creditors 26.2% of its export earnings in 2024. External public principal due in 2026-2028, US$21.0bn, is 155.1% of its reserves. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Angola?

Using this page
  1. Read the questions our briefs address, and any country reading.
  2. Filter the questions by domain, series or topic.
  3. Open a brief for its free summary sheet and executive read.
  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · Southern Africa
  • Readings updated
Link to this page

Follow AngolaSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Your exposure

Angola in our readings

Angola is in 3 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Sovereign debt High
  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low
  • Food and fertiliser Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Angola on the outlook map

Dates for Angola on the risk calendar

The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Angola

  • Gulf war / Hormuz Low

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Show all 3 risks that reach Angola
  • Sovereign debt High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

  • Food and fertiliser Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Angola

See Angola's 5 risks on a chart

Angola's 5 risks spread over 3 score pairs; no pair holds more than two.

22Hunger in southern Angolareaches Emergency level in theEl Niño lean season1234567891012345678910LowLowElevatedElevatedHighHighSevereSevereImpactLikelihood

Area is the count.

Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.

Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.

Every card is in the list below, with its scores.

SourceStrature world-risk cards, approved, as of 11 Nov 2026. Scores are judgements, not probabilities. The two scores are never multiplied.
Exhibit R-5 · ANGOLA · strature.net
Show all 5 world risks for Angola

All world risks that touch Angola

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Angola makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Before 1 Jan 2027 The National Assembly considers the 2027 budget bill, 37.34tn kwanzas of revenue and expenditure. Sovereign debt
  • 2027 General elections are due. Expansão reported an IMF staff note placing fuel subsidy removal in 2028. Sovereign debt
  • 2028 Bond principal of US$1.75bn falls due on the end-2024 schedule, less the notes bought back in 2026. Sovereign debt
  • Monthly IMF credit outstanding, SDR 2,169.9m on 2 Nov 2026, as it is repaid. Sovereign debt
  • Quarterly IRDP fuel import review: the imported share and its cost. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • Quarterly Oil and gas market report: crude export volume, price and revenue. Gulf war / Hormuz

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Angola?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Angola, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Angola on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Angola.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Angola

Angola paid public external creditors 26.2% of its export earnings in 2024. External public principal due in 2026-2028, US$21.0bn, is 155.1% of its reserves.

Theme band High

26.2%

of export earnings went to public external debt service (2024)

155.1%

of reserves: external public principal due 2026-2028

31.2%

of public external debt owed to creditors in China (2024)

25.2%

of central government revenue went to interest (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • External public principal of US$21.0bn falls due in 2026-2028 on the end-2024 schedule, against reserves of US$13.54bn in 2025.
  • Public external debt service took US$9.86bn in 2024, 26.2% of export earnings, the High band on this line.
  • The 2026 borrowing plan puts total debt service at 15.24tn kwanzas, about 15% more than in 2025; interest is 4.32tn kwanzas (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The March 2026 Eurobonds were issued at coupons of 9.375% and 9.875%.
  • Creditors in China held US$14.4bn of public external debt in 2024, 31.2% of the total, as the borrower reports it to the World Bank.

Opportunities

  • Markets stayed open: Angola raised US$2.5bn in March 2026 and a reported US$1.5bn in May 2026, US$4.0bn in all. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Part of the March proceeds bought back US$490.2m of the notes due 2028, easing that year's bond repayment.
  • Ver Angola reported oil-backed debt to China at US$8.9bn in Jun 2025, down from US$10.2bn at Dec 2024 (press report, estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Debt counted in default was small: US$272m in 2025, down from US$14,387m in 2020.

Uncertainties

  • The World Bank schedule is built on debt at end-2024; it does not show the 2026 Eurobonds or the buyback.
  • The debt-service line of the draft 2027 budget, 37.34tn kwanzas in all, was not found. Estimate from press or commentary
  • IMF credit outstanding was SDR 2,169.9m on 2 Nov 2026, 2.41% of GDP; no new IMF programme was found in the sources read.
  • Borrower-reported figures may miss some Chinese lending; AidData was not read.

What to watch

  • Before 1 Jan 2027The National Assembly considers the 2027 budget bill, 37.34tn kwanzas of revenue and expenditure.
  • 2027General elections are due. Expansão reported an IMF staff note placing fuel subsidy removal in 2028.
  • 2028Bond principal of US$1.75bn falls due on the end-2024 schedule, less the notes bought back in 2026.
  • MonthlyIMF credit outstanding, SDR 2,169.9m on 2 Nov 2026, as it is repaid.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
External debt serviceCapital and finance26.2% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeHighHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance155.1% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesHighHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
China creditorDependence31.2% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaMediumHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%
Imf exposureCapital and finance2.41% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPMediumHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
Interest burdenRevenue25.2% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)MediumHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
Default arrearsCapital and finance0.22% of GDP 2025 vs GDP 2025Sovereign debt in default, % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

External public principal due 2026-2028, reserves and debt owed to China (US$bn)
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$21bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Projected principal…21.0Public and publicly guaranteed external debt owed to creditors in China: US$14.4bn (2024)Public and publicly…14.4Total reserves including gold: US$13.5bn (2025)Total13.5

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.DOD.DPPG.CD, counterpart China).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 155.1% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 31.2% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)
  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 2.41% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • Sovereign debt in default, % of GDP: 0.22% of GDP (= debt in default (US$ m) / GDP × 100)
  • Eurobond principal raised in 2026 (March and May issues): US$4bn (= 2.5 + 1.5)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Angola

Angola imported 73% of its petroleum products in 2025 and 74% of its liquid fuel in Q3 2026; Saudi Arabia supplied 6.85% of all imports in May 2026. Higher oil prices lifted crude export revenue 54.71% in Q2 2026.

Theme band Low

6.85%est.

of all Angolan imports came from Saudi Arabia (May 2026)

73%est.

of national petroleum-product consumption met by imports (2025)

US$2.6bnest.

spent on fuel imports (2025)

US$8.91bnest.

crude export revenue, Q2 2026 (up 54.71% on a year earlier)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Imports met 73% of petroleum-product consumption in 2025, and 82.7% of liquid fuel supply in Q1 2026 and 74% in Q3 2026, when the Luanda refinery supplied 24.5%. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Price is the main channel: Sonangol said it paid almost US$1,700/t for gasoline in May 2026, against about US$700/t in Q4 2025 (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The value of fuel imports rose 39.51% between March and April 2026, the central bank governor said (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Saudi Arabia was the fifth origin of imports in May 2026, at Kz 109bn against Kz 1.669bn a year earlier, as refined fuel rose to 37.6% of imports (press report of official data). Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Angola exports crude: oil sales earned US$8.91bn in Q2 2026, up 54.71% on a year earlier, at a weighted US$101.087 a barrel (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Most imported fuel comes from outside the Gulf: Sonangol named South Korea and Togo, with BP as the main supplier, in Q1 2026 (press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • Saudi statistics record only SAR 56.5m of mineral fuel exports to Angola in 2025, and the 18.2% Saudi share of fuel imports in May 2026 is an upper bound. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Togo is a trading hub, so the refinery of origin of cargoes from Togo is not known. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Officials tied the Q2 2026 revenue rise to higher international prices and did not name the war, so its share is not measured. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike on Iran could close the Strait again and lift fuel prices.
  • QuarterlyIRDP fuel import review: the imported share and its cost.
  • QuarterlyOil and gas market report: crude export volume, price and revenue.
  • MonthlyCentral bank trade data: the value of fuel imports.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsEnergy18.2% May 2026 low confidenceUpper bound of the Saudi share of refined fuel imports (value), if every Saudi good imported was fuelLowHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Imported share of Angola's liquid fuel supply (%)
Share of liquid fuels for the domestic market that were imported: 84% (Q4 2025)Q4 202584.0Share of liquid fuels for the domestic market that were imported: 82.7% (Q1 2026)Q1 202682.7Share of liquid fuels for the domestic market that were imported: 74% (Q3 2026)Q3 202674.0

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Comercialização de combustíveis líquidos em Angola cresce 4,7% no 4.º trimestre de 2025 (Forbes África Lusófona, citing IRDP); Angola gasta 817 milhões USD em combustíveis no 1.º trimestre e mantém dependência externa acima de 80% (Forbes África Lusófona, citing IRDP); Importações asseguraram 74% dos combustíveis consumidos em Angola entre Julho e Setembro (Forbes África Lusófona, citing IRDP).

Briefs and questions

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Upper bound of the Saudi share of refined fuel imports (value), if every Saudi good imported was fuel: 18.2% (= 6.85 / 37.60 × 100)
  • Saudi goods to replace if Saudi supply stops for 3 months, at May 2026 values: 327 Kz bn (= 109 × 3)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 4 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Angola

Angola imports all the wheat and most of the rice it eats: cereal imports were 50.0% of use in 2024/25, and the staple import bill was 0.98% of GDP.

Theme band Low

50%

cereal imports as a share of use (2024/25)

1,521

kt of wheat imported (2024/25)

489

kt of milled rice imported (2024/25)

0.98%

staple import bill, % of GDP (our calculation)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Wheat imports of 1,521 kt exceeded the 1,350 kt used in 2024/25: all wheat is imported.
  • Rice is 94.2% imported, 489 kt of 519 kt used.
  • Food prices were already rising 10.4% a year in July 2026 (FAO). A world grain price spike could add to that.
  • FAO warns that a weaker 2026 cereal crop could aggravate acute food insecurity into early 2027, which could raise import needs.

Opportunities

  • Maize, the largest cereal eaten, is mostly grown at home: imports were 425 kt of 3,000 kt used.
  • Agriculture is 25.2% of GDP, so a larger home harvest could replace part of the imported grain over time.

Uncertainties

  • The four grains in USDA's tables leave out sorghum and millet, so the share covers those four grains only. The band follows the theme's cereal rule, which places it one step lower.
  • The staple import bill is 0.98% of GDP, about US$1.01 bn, just under the 1% line. A price rise could take it over.
  • No open table of wheat imports by origin was found, so the share from the Black Sea is not known.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereal and vegetable oil prices.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: world wheat, maize and rice balance sheets.
  • 10 Dec 2026USDA WASDE: next update of the world grain balance sheets.
  • Early 2027Acute food insecurity, which FAO says the weaker 2026 harvest could aggravate into early 2027.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence50% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)LowHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue0.98% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP
Fertiliser (russia belarus china)Supply chain35,249 t N 2024N fertiliser agricultural useBelow lineHigh ≥50% · Medium 35–50% · Low 20–35%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Imports as a share of use, 2024/25 (%)
Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (2024/25) (our calculation)Wheat imports as a*100.0Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 94.2% (2024/25) (our calculation)Milled rice imports a…*94.2Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 50% (2024/25) (our calculation)Cereal imports as a*50.0

Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 50% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 0.98% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
  • Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 94.2% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Angola (AGO). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Angola”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/ago/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
Ask about Angola

A question this page does not answer?

Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.

Is your company exposed in Angola? An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a free pilot

Suggest a question The method