Angola's crude output averages under 1.0 mb/d for a full quarter
The test Angola's oil agency (ANPG) reports average crude output below 1.00 mb/d for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Angola's crude output has hovered just above 1 million barrels a day and ran below the oil agency's monthly targets from March to August 2025. A full quarter under 1.0 mb/d would cut the export earnings that back the budget and the bonds Angola sold in 2026. The latest agency figures cited here are from 2025.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: output below the agency's target every month from March to August 2025; May 2025 at about 1.01 mb/d, just above the line; mature fields. Brakes: no full quarter under the line shown; new wells. Confidence low: no 2026 agency figure was opened.
Why Impact 3 Threshold: a quarter just under 1.00 mb/d.
The other facts on file (4)
- May 2025 output about 1.01 mb/d, about 150,000 barrels below targets (ANPG, as reported) [2] (18 Jun 2025)
- August 2025 averaged 1,034,655 b/d against a target of 1,086,727 b/d; below target every month since March (ANPG, as relayed) [1] (24 Sep 2025)
- US$2.5bn Eurobond in March 2026 at 9.25% and 9.8%; about US$5.2bn of demand [3] (25 Mar 2026)
- Angola supplied 15.41% of Indonesia's crude imports by value in H1 2026 (Statistics Indonesia, as reported) [4] (3 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Angola's crude output averages under 1.0 mb/d for a full quarterImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Angola
How it spreads
Angola's oil agency (ANPG) reports average crude output below 1.00 mb/d for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Holding
Output stays around 1.03 mb/d.
- S2
Slipping
One month dips under 1 mb/d but the quarter holds.
- S3
Below the line
Field decline outruns new wells for a full quarter.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ANPG's December 2026 summary, due about January 2027 |
| S2 | A monthly ANPG summary under 1.0 mb/d |
| S3 | The Q1 2027 average, known by about April 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 ANPG summary for December 2026 (Q4 2026 complete) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- Apr 2027 ANPG summary for March 2027 (Q1 2027 complete) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Output that held above 1 mb/d would support the buffers the bond market rewarded in March 2026 [3].
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Indonesia
- The MPLA wins less than half the national vote in Angola's 2027 general election Shares a channel: Oil money is the next government's budget base.
- South Sudan's crude exports through Sudan stop for 30 days or more Shares a channel: Another African state budget resting on crude exports.
- Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter Shares a channel: Angola left OPEC; the world crude price sets what each barrel earns.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Producao petrolifera de Angola volta a ficar abaixo da meta em Agosto. Forbes Africa Lusofona · 24 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Producao de petroleo de Angola volta a ficar abaixo do previsto em Maio. Forbes Africa Lusofona · 18 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Angola taps global markets with $2.5 billion Eurobond. Shore Africa · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- RI impor minyak US$16,16 M selama semester I 2026, dari Nigeria-Angola. CNBC Indonesia · 3 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks