South Sudan's crude exports through Sudan stop for 30 days or more
The test Before 1 Nov 2027, South Sudan's crude exports through the pipelines to Port Sudan stop for 30 consecutive days or more.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Landlocked South Sudan exports its crude only by pipeline across Sudan to Port Sudan. Exports stopped for most of a year in 2024 because of Sudan's war, and the Heglig processing hub changed hands in December 2025. A deal between Juba and both Sudanese sides keeps oil flowing for now.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: war near Heglig; record of halts. Brakes: tripartite deal and South Sudanese guards at Heglig; the January 2025 restart. An open contest.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case a 30-day halt.
The other facts on file (5)
- Force majeure declared March 2024, lifted by letter of 4 Jan 2025; South Sudan pumped about 150,000 b/d through Sudan; Petrodar line over 1,500 km from Upper Nile to Port Sudan [1] (6 Jan 2025)
- RSF seized Heglig; tripartite deal lets South Sudanese troops guard oil installations; Heglig handles about 130,000 b/d of South Sudanese crude; Heglig output fell from 65,000 to about 20,000 b/d [2] (12 Dec 2025)
- Sudan's government said it may be forced to suspend Heglig operations after RSF attacks of 26 and 30 Aug 2025 [3] (1 Sep 2025)
- RSF announced control of Heglig on Monday 8 Dec 2025; mid-November 2025 disruption; Sudan exported an average 165,000 b/d of South Sudan crude over the past three months (Bloomberg tanker tracking) [4] (10 Dec 2025)
- Energy ministry ordered emergency shutdown procedures at Heglig; exports around 110,000 b/d; oil around 98 percent of the budget (outlet's reporting) [5] (1 Sep 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- South Sudan's crude exports through Sudan stop for 30 days or moreImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · South Sudan
How it spreads
Before 1 Nov 2027, South Sudan's crude exports through the pipelines to Port Sudan stop for 30 consecutive days or more.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Flows hold
The tripartite deal keeps Heglig neutral.
- S2
Short outages
Strikes or repairs halt flows for days.
- S3
Long halt
Fighting or a fee dispute stops flows for months, as in 2024.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Monthly export tenders from Juba |
| S2 | An attack on Heglig or a pump station |
| S3 | A new force majeure letter |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
Juba has shown it can strike deals with both Sudanese sides to keep oil moving [2], and both sides need the transit income (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Sudan
- China
- Malaysia
- India
- A drone strike shuts Port Sudan's port or airport for 48 hours Driven by: Port Sudan is the only export terminal.
- The RSF takes El Obeid, the army's hub in Kordofan Driven by: The RSF's Kordofan campaign is the war near Heglig.
- South Sudan does not vote on 22 Dec 2026 Drives: Oil money funds the state and the vote.
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Shares a channel: Tankers leave Port Sudan through the Red Sea.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Sudan resumes oil exports to Port Sudan, lifts force majeure on pipeline (Reuters). Pipeline & Gas Journal · 6 Jan 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- South Sudan army moves into Heglig after 'tripartite deal'. Radio Dabanga · 12 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sudan plans to shut down Heglig oil fields amid RSF attacks. Eye Radio · 1 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- South Sudan oil exports at risk (Bloomberg). Rigzone · 10 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Juba faces ruin after Sudan shuts oil pipeline. The East African · 1 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks