The RSF takes El Obeid, the army's hub in Kordofan
The test Before 1 Nov 2027, the RSF takes control of El Obeid city, as reported by two independent sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Al-Burhan rejected negotiations and vowed to take every inch held by the RSF; RSF massing in West Kordofan as the army advances towards En Nahud; about 13 million displaced since April 2023 (UN and international estimates) [1]
- Sudan's foreign ministry extended the Adre crossing opening by three months to 31 Dec 2026 to ease aid deliveries [3]
Why it matters
Sudan's war between the army and the RSF has run since April 2023 and displaced about 13 million people. The fighting has moved to Kordofan, where El Obeid is the army's main hub. The army is advancing in Kordofan and its chief rejects talks, while the RSF masses in West Kordofan and sends drones as far as El Obeid.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: RSF massing in West Kordofan, drones over El Obeid, the G7 warning, no talks. Brake: army advances in Kordofan and drone interceptions.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case: the RSF holds El Obeid.
The other facts on file (3)
- G7 foreign ministers and the EU urged the RSF to stop any action endangering civilians in El-Obeid, including drone strikes, and urged the army to stop rejecting de-escalation proposals [5] (14 Jul 2026)
- RSF drones targeted El Obeid and four other army-held cities; military sources said air defences intercepted them [2] (12 Aug 2026)
- A drone from Sudan killed 17 people in Tine, Chad, as the war spilled over the border [4] (19 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The RSF takes El Obeid, the army's hub in KordofanImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Sudan
How it spreads
Before 1 Nov 2027, the RSF takes control of El Obeid city, as reported by two independent sources.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Sudan's mapEl Obeid's loss would leave the RSF holding the west and much of the centre, a de facto split (Strature's view).
- RefugeesMore people would flee west and north; Chad already sees spillover.
- AidA new front line would cut relief routes into Kordofan (Strature's view).
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Ports and logistics
Countries 5
- Sudan primary
- Chad
- Egypt
- South Sudan
- United Arab Emirates
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Sudan, Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, United Arab Emirates
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Army holds and advances
The army keeps El Obeid and pushes west.
- S2
Siege
The RSF cuts the roads around El Obeid and shells it without entering.
- S3
Fall
The RSF enters and holds the city.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The army takes En Nahud |
| S2 | Strikes on the city in successive weeks |
| S3 | Two sources report RSF units inside El Obeid |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 Adre crossing opening expires unless extended [3] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
US senior adviser Massad Boulos said on X in early October 2026 that peace could come through an inclusive Sudanese-owned and Sudanese-led national dialogue (as reported, 7 Oct 2026) [1].
Connected in Strature
- Sudan
- Egypt
- United Arab Emirates
- Chad's forces strike or fight inside Sudan Drives: A western RSF gain raises cross-border pressure on Chad.
- South Sudan's crude exports through Sudan stop for 30 days or more Drives: The Kordofan war runs near the Heglig oil hub.
- A drone strike shuts Port Sudan's port or airport for 48 hours Shares a channel: The same RSF drone campaign against army-held cities.
- Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE Shares a channel: That risk's channel includes the UAE's ties to Sudan's war.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Sudan's al-Burhan rejects talks, vows to retake all territory from RSF. Al Jazeera · 7 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- RSF drone attacks target 5 Sudanese cities, military intercepts drones. Anadolu Agency · 12 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sudan extends Chad border opening for humanitarian aid. CGTN Africa · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Drone attack from Sudan kills 17 people in Chad as war spills over border. Al Jazeera · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- G7 Foreign Ministers' Statement on El-Obeid, Sudan. Global Affairs Canada · 14 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks