Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Namibia
Namibia imports all its fuel. Hormuz Gulf producers supplied 24.9% of product imports in 2025, down from 37.9% in 2024, as Oman and India gained.
Theme band Medium
24.9%
of product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (2025)
46.2%
from all Gulf producers including Oman (2025)
57.1
N$ bn of reserves, about 3.5 months of imports (Jul 2026)
Read the full panel
Risks
- Trade: the goods deficit widened to N$19.3bn in H1 2026 from N$12.8bn, mainly on fuel payments.
- Prices: inflation rose to 4.4% in Jun 2026 on transport; the Bank of Namibia expects 4.0% for 2026.
- Supply: one off-spec jet fuel cargo at Walvis Bay disrupted Windhoek flights in Aug 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
- Fiscal: fuel levies were reported halved from Apr 2026 through the National Energy Fund. Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- Walvis Bay may gain from Cape-route diversions and bunkering. Estimate from press or commentary
- Urea comes mostly from Nigeria; the UAE share was 13.6% in 2024.
- Domestic oil from the Orange Basin is reported to be expected by 2030. Estimate from press or commentary
Uncertainties
- How much of the Omani and Indian product is refined from Gulf crude.
- The levy cut rests on a secondary press report. Estimate from press or commentary
- No Gulf investment in Namibia's green hydrogen projects was found. Estimate from press or commentary
What to watch
- MonthlyPump-price reviews and the National Energy Fund.
- Oct 2026Bank of Namibia policy decision; repo at 6.75%.
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves.
- MonthlyReserves (N$57.1bn in Jul 2026) and import cover.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined productsDependence | 24.9% 2025Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman) | Medium | High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20% |
| Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming | 13.6% 2024Share of urea imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman) | Low | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
| Exports to the GulfTrade | US$209.2m 2024Goods exports to GCC6 + Iran | Below line | High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfElsewhere
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia imports HS 2710 by partner, 2024; UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Products recovered least after the Strait reopened to escorted traffic.
- S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Bank of Namibia, Monetary Policy Statement, 12 Aug 2026 (repo rate maintained at 6.75%) (2026-07; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: Namibia urea (HS 310210) imports by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia exports, all goods, by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API): Namibia imports HS 2710 by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- OR Tambo jet fuel shortage: Sasol outage hits Joburg, Windhoek (Rio Times) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis (Wikipedia, citing The Kenya Times, 1 Apr 2026) (Apr-Jun 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis (Wikipedia, citing BBC, 31 Mar 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis (Wikipedia, citing The Kenya Times) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Economy of Namibia (Wikipedia, citing EIC Africa Hydrogen Insight Report Jan 2026) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Scenario: combined one-quarter FX hit (fuel + urea) as a share of reserves: 1.05% of reserves (= (35.9 + 0.51) US$m / (N$57.1bn / 16.42 N$ per US$ = US$3.48bn); low (23.9+0)/3,477 = 0.69%; high (47.9+0.76)/3,477 = 1.40%. As % of 2025 GDP (US$15.08bn): 0.24% (0.16-0.32))
- Scenario: extra product import bill for one quarter, Brent +US$15/bbl: US$35.9m (= 1.277 Mt (2025 products) × 7.5 bbl/t = 9.58m bbl a year; /4 × US$15; range US$10-20)
- Scenario: Hormuz Gulf urea to replace in 3 months and its extra cost: US$0.51m (= 8.0 kt (2024 UAE urea) × 3/12 = 2.0 kt; x US$254/t premium (725.6 - 472); low × 0; high × 378)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz