Protests in Angola kill 10 or more people inside seven days
The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 protests or riots in Angola, or their policing, kill 10 or more people within any seven days, by an official count or two news agencies.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Angola's treasury said fuel subsidies could reach 3.8 trillion kwanzas (US$4.16bn) in 2026, against an initial projection under 2 trillion [3]
Why it matters
In July 2025 a diesel price rise set off a taxi strike and riots in Luanda that left at least 22 dead, by the presidency's count. The fuel subsidy bill is now nearly double plan, and a general election is due in 2027. The government has put full subsidy removal back to 2028.
Why Likelihood 4 Once in the last 36 months (July 2025), so not below 3. Pushes: subsidy pressure; an election year. Brakes: subsidy removal put back to 2028; no new price step announced; the slow pace stated on 16 Oct 2026.
The other facts on file (4)
- After a diesel price rise of about a third, a taxi strike and riots in Luanda from 28 Jul 2025 left 22 dead, 197 injured and 1,214 detained (presidency statement); the interior minister said a police officer was among the 22 [1] (30 Jul 2025)
- ISS Today counted at least 29 dead and over 1,500 arrested in three days of clashes in late July 2025 [2] (11 Aug 2025)
- An IMF staff statement quoted by Expansão noted the postponement of fuel subsidy removal to 2028 [4] (15 Sep 2025)
- Angola's 2027 general election date is not set; the law prefers the second half of August [5] (24 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 protests or riots in Angola, or their policing, kill 10 or more people within any seven days, by an official count or two news agencies.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Trade and transportTaxi strikes and riots shut Luanda's transport and street trade, as in July 2025 [1][2].
- PoliticsDeaths in an election year raise political risk around the 2027 vote [2][5].
- Public financesUnrest makes further fuel price steps harder, keeping the subsidy bill high [3][4].
Countries 1
- Angola primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Angola.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet year
No new price step before the vote; protests stay small.
- S2
Price-step unrest
A new fuel or transport price rise sets off strikes and deadly clashes.
- S3
Election unrest
Protests around the campaign or the result turn deadly.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The 2027 budget's fuel subsidy line |
| S2 | A decree raising diesel or taxi fares |
| S3 | The official election date and the opposition's response to the result |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Aug 2027 General election, second half of August preferred by law (date not set) [5] Tentative · Outside event
Connected in Strature
- Angola
- Angola raises a regulated fuel price by a fifth or more in one step Driven by: A large fuel price step is the most likely trigger.
- The MPLA wins less than half the national vote in Angola's 2027 general election Shares a channel: Both turn on discontent ahead of the 2027 vote.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- At least 22 killed at Angola fuel price hike protests, authorities say. Al Jazeera · 30 Jul 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Angola's wave of protests reflects historic lows in MPLA support. ISS Today · 11 Aug 2025 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Angola's fuel subsidies spending projected to hit $4 billion in 2026, official says. Devdiscourse (Reuters) · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Governo empurra fim dos subsídios para futura administração. Expansão · 15 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Angola vai a eleições em 2027 e prepara sucessão de João Lourenço. Plataforma Media · 24 Aug 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks