Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Georgia
Georgia imports 58.3% of the grain it eats, and Russia supplied 78.6% of its wheat imports in 2025 and 95.5% in January-September 2026 (Geostat). Most of its wheat comes from one origin.
58.3%
of grain use met by imports (2024/25)
78.6%
of wheat imports from Russia (2025, Geostat)
95.5%
from Russia, Jan-Sep 2026 (preliminary)
0.54%
of GDP, staple import bill (2024 prices)
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Risks
- Russia supplied 404,720.2 t of 514,691.8 t of wheat imports in 2025 (Geostat). A Russian export ban or quota could cut most of the supply at once.
- Wheat imports meet 78.9% of wheat use (2024/25), so the local crop could not replace a lost origin within the season.
- Concentration rose again in 2026: Russia's share was 95.5% in January-September, after 78.6% in 2025, when Kazakhstan supplied 21.3%.
- In the 2022 shock the US wheat benchmark averaged US$430.0/t, 36% above 2021; Georgia's wheat bill moves with world prices.
Opportunities
- A second overland origin has been used: Kazakhstan supplied 109,747.0 t in 2025, 21.3% of wheat imports.
- The staple import bill is small, 0.54% of GDP on 2024 prices (about US$0.18bn), so a price spike weighs little on the external account.
- Georgia makes more nitrogen fertiliser than its farms use: 158,070 t produced against 41,800 t used in 2024 (FAOSTAT).
Uncertainties
- Geostat's 2026 months are preliminary and are revised.
- Periods differ: Geostat counts 514.7 kt of wheat imports in calendar 2025, USDA 493 kt for 2024/25.
- Geostat does not state whether wheat is attributed by country of origin or of consignment.
What to watch
- 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereals.
- 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: Russia's and Kazakhstan's wheat export estimates for the new season.
- MonthlyGeostat wheat imports by country: Russia's share after 95.5% in January-September 2026.
- 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
Exposure by channel
| Channel | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal import dependenceDependence | 58.3% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley) | High | High ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40% |
| Staple import billRevenue | 0.54% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP | Below line | High ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Geostat (National Statistics Office of Georgia), External Merchandise Trade Portal: imports, HS 1001 wheat and meslin, by partner country.
Sources cited
- Geostat (National Statistics Office of Georgia), External Merchandise Trade Portal: imports, HS 1001 wheat and meslin, by partner country (2025; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), annual prices, nominal US$ (CMO-Historical-Data-Annual.xlsx) (2022; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- FAO, FAOSTAT: Fertilizers by Nutrient (RFN) (2024; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports (2024/25; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- FAO, FAO Food Price Index (release dates) (2026; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- USDA Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (release schedule) (2026; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
Our calculations
- Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 58.3% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
- Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 0.54% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
- Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 78.9% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.