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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Upper Lars, Georgia's only road crossing to Russia, is shut to trucks for a week

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Upper Lars crossing between Georgia and Russia is closed to freight trucks for 7 days in a row or more, for weather, a landslide or a border measure, as announced by Georgian or Russian authorities or reported by two sources.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth1
Duration2
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The road through Upper Lars is the only highway from Russia to Georgia and Armenia, and snow and avalanches close it in winter. Closures with hundreds or more than a thousand trucks waiting came in November 2024 and February 2026, and snow shut it again in April 2026. This card asks whether a closure to trucks lasts a full week.

Why Likelihood 3 Push: recurring winter closures, with the window's winter ahead. Brake: no confirmed closure of 7 days or more in 24 months. One driver with a blocker.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Snow closed the road to trucks, then to all vehicles; about 570 Armenian trucks among some 1,740 vehicles waiting [1] (27 Nov 2024)
  • Heavy vehicles barred from the night of 1 Feb 2026, all vehicles from 2 Feb; more than 1,400 trucks waiting in North Ossetia (TASS, as reported); the only highway from Russia to Georgia and Armenia [2] (4 Feb 2026)
  • Upper Lars and the Krestovy pass completely closed to passengers and freight for heavy snow and avalanche risk; bad weather expected for up to three more days (as reported) [3] (9 Apr 2026)
  • Dozens of Armenian trucks turned back under new Russian import curbs (one driver's account) [4] (3 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

UKRAINETÜRKIYEAZERBAIJANGEORGIAARMENIA11. Upper Lars, Georgia's only road crossing to Russia, is shut to trucks for a week: Elevated impact · unlikely (Upper Lars crossing (Verkhniy Lars))1 Upper Lars shut to trucksElevated impact · unlikely · Upper Lars crossing (Verkhniy Lars)UPPER LARS SHUT TO TRUCKS0500 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UKRAINETÜRKIYEAZERBAIJANGEORGIA11. Upper Lars, Georgia's only road crossing to Russia, is shut to trucks for a week: Elevated impact · unlikely (Upper Lars crossing (Verkhniy Lars))1 Upper Lars shutto trucksUPPER LARS SHUT TO TRUCKS0500 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Upper Lars crossing between Georgia and Russia is closed to freight trucks for 7 days in a row or more, for weather, a landslide or a border measure, as announced by Georgian or Russian authorities or reported by two sources.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. GeorgiaExports to Russia and transit stop while trucks wait [2][3].
  3. ArmeniaIts overland freight to Russia has no other road [4].
  4. Freight costsStrature's view: shippers would likely turn to Black Sea ferries or routes through Iran, at higher cost.

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Georgia, Armenia, Russia.

Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
Goods
Fruit, Vegetables, Wine, Mineral water

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Short closures

    Snow shuts the road for a few days at a time, as in 2024 and 2026.

  2. S2

    A long winter shutdown

    A week or more of closure to trucks in deep snow or after a landslide.

  3. S3

    A border measure

    Russia holds trucks for a week over trade or political disputes.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Closures lifted within three days through March 2027
S2No reopening date announced in January or February 2027
S3Russian authorities bar Armenian or Georgian trucks at the crossing

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Start of the winter closure season [2] Tentative · Window
  2. Apr 2027 End of the winter closure season [3] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

No closure of 7 days or more is confirmed by an official or second source; the closures on record were weather closures [1][2][3]. Strature's view: the road reopens once weather allows and trucks then clear the backlog.

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Upper Lars closed to trucks, then to all vehicles. news.am · 27 Nov 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Trucks waiting at Upper Lars. Caucasian Knot · 4 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Russians stranded at Georgia border as snowstorm shuts crossing. Caliber.Az · 9 Apr 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Armenian Freight Halted at Upper Lars as Russia Enforces Import Restrictions. Caspian Post · 3 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks