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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Georgia's Constitutional Court bans opposition parties

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Georgia's Constitutional Court declares at least one of the five opposition parties named in case No. 1979 unconstitutional and bans it.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ Hearings on the merits began on 21 Oct 2026 [2].

Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration9
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. On 22 Oct 2026 the court rejected the opposition's motions, including Venice Commission experts and an ECtHR advisory opinion [4]
  2. Seven-judge court began hearings; Prime Minister Kobakhidze defended the suit on 20 Oct 2026; opposition leaders say the aim is to remove rivals before the 2028 elections and reject the accusations [3]
  3. Hearings on the merits from 21 Oct 2026 in Batumi; claimants allege breaches of Article 23; the parties reject the accusations; 784,820 votes for the five parties in 2024 (CEC, cited by JAMnews); a successor party can be banned by a 14-day procedure [2]
  4. The Constitutional Court published a recording notice in case N3/4/1979, the claim by 88 MPs on the five parties and their prohibition [7]
  5. European Parliament resolution of 8 Oct 2026 calls for the suit's withdrawal and says a ban would make progress towards EU membership impossible [5]
  6. Case No. 1979, signed by 88 MPs, registered 24 Sep 2026 against five opposition parties; earlier claims of 31 Oct 2025 and 21 Apr 2026; ruling due by 24 June 2027, as reported [1]

Why it matters

Since 21 Oct 2026 Georgia's Constitutional Court has heard a claim by 88 Georgian Dream MPs asking it to declare five opposition parties unconstitutional and ban them. The court must rule by 24 June 2027, as reported. The parties reject the accusations; the case is pending and the court has not ruled.

Why Likelihood 6 A is no: the claimants cannot ban a party; B is no: the 24 June 2027 deadline is read in news reports, not an official notice. Pushes: hearings under way with a reported deadline inside the window; the court rejected the opposition's motions; an opposition figure said on 21 Oct 2026 she believes the ban will happen.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case one party banned.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Speaker Papuashvili said on 20 Apr 2026 the ruling party would withdraw its old claim and file an expanded one adding the Federalists [6] (20 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Georgia's Constitutional Court bans opposition parties. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Georgia's Constitutional Court bans opposition partiesImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Georgia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · GEORGIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Georgia's Constitutional Court declares at least one of the five opposition parties named in case No. 1979 unconstitutional and bans it.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PoliticsFour of the five parties, with about 38% of the 2024 vote, could be removed before the 2028 elections, which opposition leaders say is the aim [3].
  3. EU tiesThe European Parliament said a ban would make progress towards membership impossible [5].

Countries 1

  • Georgia primary

Who is exposed

Countries
Georgia

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Ban

    The court bans some or all five parties.

  2. S2

    Delay

    The claimants file again; Lelo's Giorgi Sioridze says each new claim restarts the nine-month clock.

  3. S3

    Rejection

    The court dismisses the claim.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A ruling on or before 24 Jun 2027
S2A new case number before 24 Jun 2027
S3A ruling for the defendants by 24 Jun 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 28 Nov 2026 Opposition demonstration planned in Tbilisi [2] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 24 Jun 2027 Reported deadline for the Constitutional Court's ruling in case No. 1979 [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · GEORGIA · strature.net

The other side

The parties deny every allegation [2][3]. Transparency International Georgia's Sandro Baramidze said on 21 Oct 2026 that none of the constitutional grounds was present [3]. Lelo's Giorgi Sioridze said, as reported on 6 Oct 2026, that the changing lists keep the option open while delaying a decision [1].

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Georgia without an opposition? How ruling party moved to ban its opponents through constitutional lawsuit. JAMnews · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Proposed ban on five opposition parties in Georgia: what's happening and why. JAMnews · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Georgia's top court hears lawsuit to ban main opposition parties in latest crackdown on dissent. La Nación (Associated Press) · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Georgia opposition party ban case: Day two of court proceedings. JAMnews · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. European Parliament resolution on banning opposition parties in Georgia: what it says. JAMnews · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  6. GD expands demand to ban opposition parties in Georgia. Georgian Public Broadcaster (GPB) · 20 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  7. Constitutional complaint by the members of the Parliament of Georgia (total 88 member) concerning the constitutionality of the activities of certain political parties and their prohibition. Constitutional Court of Georgia · 13 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks