63 questions answered in 6 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geoeconomic · Geopolitical · Geotechnology
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Iran.
“Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Affected United States, Israel
“Six were in force on 21 August 2026 with no renewed strike”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Permission was conditional on cover the authority itself approves and on a prescribed route along the Iranian coast, with alternatives prohibited.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Washington's designations do not cite the London condition, the condition does not cite them, and Tehran's requirement cites neither.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The quiet that followed was 23 days old at registration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A single munition suffices; no casualty, damage or scale threshold applies.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Affected United States, Israel
“The paths overlap, which is why the composed figure sits well below the sum of its parts; the overlap is what the superseded 72% mishandled.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Affected United States, Israel
“A negotiated reopening, Iran's conditions met, or the strait forced open: the only roads any party has named.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, Oman
“The closure is the transmission; a strike is an input to it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Qatar
“A strike changes what is listed; it does not publish a price.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United Kingdom
“A one-dollar toll and a two-million-dollar toll carry the same consequence, and the guidance note states it also reaches payments to a non-Iranian entity such as Oman, or other states.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Oman
“The pay terms are known rates against a crew cost base.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Relief cargo moved to Aqaba and to land corridors from Dubai.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Jordan, United Arab Emirates
“The forms already used sit on the water.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, Israel
“If a US principal states that energy infrastructure is off the target list, or the measures of 19–20 August are formally presented as the substitute for military action, or a dated instrument replaces the lapsed understanding, our view falls”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, Israel
“Iran 26%, Greece 17%, China 9% of 111 counted transits; the rest unattributed”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0009 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open · F-0011 6%, open · F-0021 4%, open. The forecast register
Affected United States, Israel
“Into that gap, the source judged, the Revolutionary Guard moved as the decisive force: the only intact institution of national reach when the clerical apex fell.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“As of 30 September 2026 no confirmed footage of him had been released since the appointment, according to Wikipedia's article on him (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026), which also records written messages attributed to him and read on state television.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's central judgement on Iran's external position was that the leading powers now manage Iran rather than balance it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Three futures, Guard-Managed Attrition, Contested Drift and Frozen Siege, are variants of no resolution: the conflict grinds, freezes or muddles on.”
On the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open. The forecast register
“With that arbiter gone, the source read Iran's risks as correlated rather than diversified: a shock to one raises the odds of movement in the rest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States, Israel
“The exposure travels with the transaction, not with the flag.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Through mid-2026 the source found no elite defection and no fracture in the security forces.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“About a third of Iraqi power generation depends on Iranian gas, a widely cited figure the source could not independently confirm; Iraqi militias and US forces struck each other during the war.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected Iraq
“The US Energy Information Administration's daily Brent spot series shows a wider range over the same period: from US$68.53 to US$138.21 between 2 March and 17 July 2026 (EIA, release of 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Its fastest early-warning signal was whether the new Leader ever appears and speaks in his own voice.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“US forces struck Revolutionary Guard targets on 30 August and 1 September 2026, the first known US strike since 29 July, according to US Central Command as reported by Stars and Stripes (1 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“Both moved down, and the unnamed tail moved up, from about 41% to about 43%: the correction made the outlook less confident, not more.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0021 4%, open · F-0007 15%, superseded, still scored · F-0012 5%, superseded, still scored. The forecast register
“None moves inside two years; each decides the decade.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Two carry the shortest warning and the highest impact, on the source's reading: loss of custody of nuclear material and an apex decapitation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Since the research date, the US President rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the strait on 26 September 2026 (Al Jazeera).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Affected United States
“The call would be wrong if a single future became likely: above all, a durable settlement signed by an Iranian leadership able to deliver it, with independent nuclear verification restored and six months without cross-border strikes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Repriced cargo by cargo: by mid-2026 LNG kept under a tenth and crude under a quarter of their late-2025 flow through the Strait, and by 28 September crude, on Kpler's pre-war baseline, was back; products were not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude kept 23.3 per cent of its late-2025 flow, products 19.3 per cent and LNG 7.6 per cent.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The Joint Maritime Information Center's Update 082 of 9 August 2026 described traffic at reduced levels across a northern Iranian-controlled route and a southern Omani corridor, and stated that neutral transit was permitted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have operating pipelines around the Strait, on EIA's record: the 5-million-barrel-a-day East-West line to the Red Sea and a 1.5-million line to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Iran's instrument was routing and charging rather than denial. JMIC recorded directed hails toward the northern route.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman Affected United States
“On the Kiel Institute's model of a full closure, US welfare falls by 0.07 per cent while losses in South Asia and Africa are 10 to 20 times larger in percentage terms.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The two largest strategic holders behind the Strait were not part of it. EIA estimates China's strategic stock at 1,492 million barrels in the second quarter of 2026 and India's at 21 million; neither country is an IEA member.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Rather than choose a reader, the source edition swept nine classes of the public record and found 154 parties with a stake: 59 lose, 39 gain and 56 do both.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“The asymmetry comes from disclosure rules, not from the world: a listed company must report its earnings, and nobody must price what a force majeure notice cost them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman Affected Bangladesh
“Al Jazeera reported on 23 July 2026 that an S&P Global report put war-risk costs at 7.5 to 10 per cent of hull value, from 1 to 3 per cent previously.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“The Lloyd's Market Association stated on 23 March 2026 that hull war cover remained available in the Lloyd's and London company market for vessels wishing to transit, and that liability cover through the P&I clubs is non-cancellable.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“A right to refuse is not a price: it withdraws crews one at a time, with no published rate.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The longest formal notice found in the record read here is the UK P&I Club's 72 hours, and it ran from midnight GMT on 28 February 2026, the day the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Gulf economies supplied 24.8 per cent of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4 per cent of phosphatic exports, on the WTO's figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Reopening the water restores none of this; a recovery read only as a transit problem would be waiting for something that is not in transit.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On 30 September 2026 none of the four had been retired: crude had recovered while LNG had no newer EIA figure, and JWLA-035 of 16 September still listed the Gulf.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“The clause's on-hire sentence is keyed to (f), and its text states no hire rule for a refusal under (b).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“This brief does not establish the physical state of Qatari liquefaction.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“By 28 September crude was back at Kpler's pre-war baseline; products were 677 kb/d against 3.6 mb/d before the war (Kpler data via CNBC).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Oman
“74–196 million barrels could leave Saudi Arabia in six weeks with the shuttle running, but none bought on 25 September was on file to land that soon.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Here ‘closed’ means conditions 2, 3 and 4 persisting, the ones buyers' contracts and insurance respond to, with the shuttle running.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“No party running the escort has said how long it lasts; the US commander's statement of 19 September gave no duration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A bank, logistics firm or component maker with Chinese counterparties inherits whatever those counterparties do with Russia and Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The source's judgement was that the binding cost was physical capacity.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Israel
“The source carried these as facts side by side, not as a proven causal chain: whether the staffing cuts weakened the wartime response is contested and was not adopted.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected China
“They broke on scope (whether Lebanon was covered), on verifying passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and on reciprocal strikes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Israel
No question matches the chosen filters.
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Africa · Asia · East Asia · Europe · Middle East · North America · South America · South Asia
ISO 3166-1 name: Islamic Republic of Iran (IRN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Edition 1.0 · Released 1 Oct 2026 · Archive edition
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0074 | A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative) | Our estimate 61% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Open |
| F-0073 | Same event, superseded 21 Aug 2026 on an upheld arithmetic challenge; still scored | Our estimate 72% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Superseded, scored |
| F-0020 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 | Our estimate 14% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0008 | S3 Contested Drift / Paralysis | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0009 | S5 Nuclear Dash under Pressure | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0010 | S2 Frozen Siege | Our estimate 9% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0011 | S6 Regime-Targeting War & Rupture | Our estimate 6% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0021 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) corrected; supersedes F-0012 | Our estimate 4% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0007 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) | Our estimate 15% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Superseded, still scored |
| F-0012 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) | Our estimate 5% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Superseded, still scored |
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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