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World risk · Energy and resources

Iran's crude output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day

The test For any month between November 2026 and October 2027, the IEA's Oil Market Report puts Iran's crude supply below 1.50 mb/d.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF Oct 2026 WEO: Iran GDP -7.6% in 2026 [4]
  2. NYT (relayed): strike plans after the midterms to push Iran's economy to collapse [3]
  3. Iran crude 1.94 mb/d (Sep), 2.16 (Aug); capacity 3.8 mb/d; quota-exempt [1]
  4. Bessent: no Iranian crude loaded in September [2]
  5. Pezeshkian acknowledged the blockade disrupts exports [2]
  6. Araghchi: reopen within seven days if conditions met; Ghalibaf: seven conditions [2]

Why it matters

The IEA put Iran's crude supply at 1.94 mb/d in September, down 0.22 mb/d in a month, against a sustainable capacity of 3.8 mb/d. The US Treasury Secretary said Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September, and the US blockade stays in force. With storage filling, more wells may have to shut.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: zero loadings; output down 0.22 mb/d in a month; strike reports. Brakes: domestic refining; talks on terms; 0.44 mb/d to fall. An open contest, 5.

The other facts on file (1)
  • South Pars attack halted gas exports to Iraq (18 Mar 2026) [5] (18 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzSAUDI ARABIAIRANTURKMENISTANIRAQKUWAITStrait of Hormuz11. Iran's crude output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Iran's crude output fallsbelow 1.5 million barrelsa dayElevated impact · possibleIRAN CRUDE BELOW 1.5 MB/D0500 kmat 32°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzIRANTURKMENISTANIRAQ11. Iran's crude output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Iran crude below1.5 mb/dIRAN CRUDE BELOW 1.5 MB/D0500 kmat 32°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

For any month between November 2026 and October 2027, the IEA's Oil Market Report puts Iran's crude supply below 1.50 mb/d.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. EnergyLost Iranian barrels tighten a market already short of Gulf crude [1].
  3. TradeBuyers of Iranian oil, mainly refiners in China, would need other crude.
  4. IranLess oil means fewer dollars and more pressure on the rial.

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Iran, China.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Shut-ins

    Storage fills and output falls below 1.5 mb/d.

  2. S2

    Plateau

    Domestic refining and smuggling hold output near 1.8-2.0 mb/d.

  3. S3

    Reopening

    Talks lift the blockade and output recovers.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1the IEA's November report below 1.8 mb/d
S2output flat in two IEA reports
S3Iranian loadings resume in a monthly count

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 IEA Oil Market Report, November [1] Declared · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · IRAN · strature.net

The other side

Iran refines much of its crude at home, and a deal on the strait would lift the blockade; output fell only 0.22 mb/d in September despite zero loadings [1][2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Iran insists it controls Hormuz as rial hits record low and exports dry up. Euronews · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline?. France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. World Economic Outlook (October 2026): real GDP growth and inflation, Iran (DataMapper). International Monetary Fund · 2026-10 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Iraq faces power shortage as Iran halts gas supply after South Pars attack. The National · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks