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World risk · Finance and markets

The dollar passes 300,000 tomans on Iran's open market

The test On any day between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US dollar trades at or above 300,000 tomans (3,000,000 rials) on Iran's open market, as reported by two news outlets.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF Oct 2026: inflation 78.6% average, GDP -7.6% in 2026 [2]
  2. NYT (relayed): plans for fresh strikes after the midterms [4]
  3. Iran crude supply 1.94 mb/d (Sep), 2.16 mb/d (Aug) [3]
  4. US$ at a record 270,000 tomans (early Oct); about 135,000 at start of 2026; euro above 300,000 [1]
  5. Bessent: no Iranian crude loaded in September; Pezeshkian: we cannot sell oil (August) [1]
  6. Oil minister resignation reported 5 Oct 2026 (family and personal matters) [1]
  7. AP (relayed): 2.5m rials per US$ on 29 Sep 2026; 2.2m on 2 Sep [6]

Why it matters

The dollar hit a record 270,000 tomans on Iran's open market in early October, more than double its level at the start of 2026. The US Treasury Secretary said Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September, and the IMF expects inflation to average 78.6% this year. A further fall of about a tenth would put the dollar past 300,000.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: rate doubled in nine months; no crude loaded in September; reports of new strikes. Brakes: talks on the table; a tenth to go.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Gas exports to Iraq halted 18 Mar 2026 after South Pars attack [5] (18 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzSAUDI ARABIAIRANTURKMENISTANIRAQKUWAITStrait of Hormuz11. The dollar passes 300,000 tomans on Iran's open market: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 The dollar passes300,000 tomanson Iran's open marketElevated impact · possibleRIAL PAST 300,000 TOMANS0500 kmat 32°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzIRANTURKMENISTANIRAQ11. The dollar passes 300,000 tomans on Iran's open market: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Rial past 300,000tomansRIAL PAST 300,000 TOMANS0500 kmat 32°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

On any day between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US dollar trades at or above 300,000 tomans (3,000,000 rials) on Iran's open market, as reported by two news outlets.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Finance and marketsImport prices and inflation rise further; savings in rials lose value [1][2].
  3. TradeImports of food and medicine cost more, and traders shift to barter and third-country routes.

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Iran.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Agriculture and food
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Slide

    No oil sales and new strikes push the dollar past 300,000.

  2. S2

    Pause

    Talks and a partial lifting of the blockade steady the rial below 300,000.

  3. S3

    Recovery

    A deal reopens oil sales and the rial rallies.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1new strikes on Iran after the US midterms
S2talks begin on the terms Iran's foreign minister set out
S3Iranian crude loadings resume in a monthly count

No probability is given for the three paths.

The other side

Iran's foreign minister says the strait could reopen within seven days if Tehran's conditions are met [1]; talks or an easing of the blockade could steady the currency.

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Iran insists it controls Hormuz as rial hits record low and exports dry up. Euronews · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. World Economic Outlook (October 2026): real GDP growth and inflation, Iran (DataMapper). International Monetary Fund · 2026-10 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline?. France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Iraq faces power shortage as Iran halts gas supply after South Pars attack. The National · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Iranian rial hits new record low (AP report). Charter 97 · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks