KQ-36: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027, do the US and Iran agree a text, does the US strike Iran, and does any EIA weekly regular-gasoline print fall below $3.50?

Our standing estimate

Seven outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

The US strikes Iran, no week below $3.50

26.7% · unlikely · confidence not registered

No US-Iran text; the US strikes Iranian territory, and every one of the 38 weekly prints is $3.50 or higher.

F-0242 · Open
Standoff, no week below $3.50

22.2% · unlikely · confidence not registered

No US-Iran text and no US strike on Iranian territory; every one of the 38 weekly prints is $3.50 or higher.

F-0241 · Open
A deal, and a winter week below $3.50

16% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

A US-Iran text is agreed, and the first weekly print below $3.50 is dated 12 Oct 2026 to 26 Apr 2027.

F-0237 · Open
A deal, but no week below $3.50

15.6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

A US-Iran text is agreed, and all 38 weekly prints are published and every one is $3.50 or higher.

F-0239 · Open
A week below $3.50 without a deal

10.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No US-Iran text is agreed, and at least one weekly print is below $3.50, whether or not the US strikes Iran.

F-0240 · Open
A deal, but the first week below $3.50 comes in the summer season

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

A US-Iran text is agreed; no print before 3 May 2027 is below $3.50, but one dated 3 May to 28 Jun 2027 is.

F-0238 · Open
All other outcomes

1% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No print in the window is below $3.50, and at least one of the 38 weekly prints is not published by 15 Jul 2027.

F-0243 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (16 Oct 2026). The EIA's October outlook never reaches $3.50 before July 2027; its lowest month, February, sits 15.1 cents above the line.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0242	16 Oct 2026	26.7%	Open
2	F-0241	16 Oct 2026	22.2%	Open
3	F-0237	16 Oct 2026	16%	Open
4	F-0239	16 Oct 2026	15.6%	Open
5	F-0240	16 Oct 2026	10.5%	Open
6	F-0238	16 Oct 2026	8%	Open
7	F-0243	16 Oct 2026	1%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Energy and resources

For airlines and truckers, a gasoline week below the line says little about their own fuel bill: diesel and jet fuel stay dear.
Will US gasoline go below $3.50 by June 2027?
Possible, off the official path: a week below $3.50 before July 2027, 34%, the sum of three scenarios, each our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0237
“Resolves if: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027 the US and Iran agree a text that ends hostilities, lifts the blockade or provides for reopening the strait, AND the first EIA weekly regular-gasoline print below $3.50 is dated 12 Oct 2026 to 26 Apr 2027.”
F-0238
“Resolves if: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027 the US and Iran agree a text that ends hostilities, lifts the blockade or provides for reopening the strait, AND no print before 3 May 2027 is below $3.50 but a print dated 3 May to 28 Jun 2027 is.”
F-0239
“Resolves if: Between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027 the US and Iran agree a text that ends hostilities, lifts the blockade or provides for reopening the strait, AND all 38 weekly prints are published by 15 Jul 2027 and every one is $3.50 or higher.”
F-0240
“Resolves if: No US-Iran text is agreed between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027, AND at least one EIA weekly regular-gasoline print dated 12 Oct 2026 to 28 Jun 2027 is below $3.50, whether or not the US strikes Iran.”
F-0241
“Resolves if: No US-Iran text is agreed and no US strike on Iranian territory takes place between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027, AND all 38 weekly prints are published by 15 Jul 2027 and every one is $3.50 or higher.”
F-0242
“Resolves if: No US-Iran text is agreed, the US strikes Iranian territory between 14 Oct 2026 and 28 Jun 2027 (announced or acknowledged by the US administration), AND all 38 weekly prints are published by 15 Jul 2027 and every one is $3.50 or higher.”
F-0243
“Resolves if: All other outcomes: no published weekly print in the window is below $3.50 and at least one of the 38 weekly prints dated 12 Oct 2026 to 28 Jun 2027 is not published by 15 Jul 2027, whatever happens between the US and Iran.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0237 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 32057780fb2481d34b8b4d3167656c123bc29f77a8e57475508e0020065e9b51
F-0238 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 661fc2ff6042c60f56a8d44cc322546efc42fa5fc8f6698ce72d1dfae3196000
F-0239 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 8014faf4b342063ce5ffcc3d89763121b33bb1aefdcce5591506d82efbafa642
F-0240 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 a9ff320def0291c8cffda35a15fbfe60833ccfdaaa4187b54e424e429b5e67a3
F-0241 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 01c5d5796f4b13b2a4acc38938502e7f378362b136e67dd035b02eff4812a992
F-0242 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 1635c4caf8d8a39a5e933dce8594bbe170492a1a4e4614b7a56753e015aab52e
F-0243 sealed 16 Oct 2026SHA-256 40d65ef213f3686d6ca6a3943a5a954575c9176b49d9ea5aa5892f321e070110

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.