10 questions answered in 3 published briefs · Newest release 1 Oct 2026
Geopolitical
The questions our published briefs answer that touch Israel.
“Likely, as registered on 21 August 2026: 61% that US or Israeli forces strike Iran by 20 November 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; on 21 August the strait was shut by permit.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Primary Iran Affected United States
“The quiet that followed was 23 days old at registration.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“A single munition suffices; no casualty, damage or scale threshold applies.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Primary Iran Affected United States
“The paths overlap, which is why the composed figure sits well below the sum of its parts; the overlap is what the superseded 72% mishandled.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0074 61%, open · F-0073 72%, superseded, scored. The forecast register
Primary Iran Affected United States
“The forms already used sit on the water.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United States
“If a US principal states that energy infrastructure is off the target list, or the measures of 19–20 August are formally presented as the substitute for military action, or a dated instrument replaces the lapsed understanding, our view falls”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United States
“No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0009 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open · F-0011 6%, open · F-0021 4%, open. The forecast register
Primary Iran Affected United States
“With that arbiter gone, the source read Iran's risks as correlated rather than diversified: a shock to one raises the odds of movement in the rest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United States
“The source's judgement was that the binding cost was physical capacity.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Iran
“They broke on scope (whether Lebanon was covered), on verifying passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and on reciprocal strikes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary United States Affected Iran
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Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
Regions in these questions Middle East · North America
ISO 3166-1 name: Israel (ISR). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.
No published brief has Israel as its subject yet; the questions above name it as affected.
Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Published briefs only; the full register lists every one.
| ID | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0074 | A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative) | Our estimate 61% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Open |
| F-0073 | Same event, superseded 21 Aug 2026 on an upheld arithmetic challenge; still scored | Our estimate 72% | Issued 21 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 20 Nov 2026 | Status Superseded, scored |
| F-0020 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 | Our estimate 14% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0008 | S3 Contested Drift / Paralysis | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0009 | S5 Nuclear Dash under Pressure | Our estimate 12% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0010 | S2 Frozen Siege | Our estimate 9% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0011 | S6 Regime-Targeting War & Rupture | Our estimate 6% | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
| F-0021 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) corrected; supersedes F-0012 | Our estimate 4% | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves by 18 Jul 2028 | Status Open |
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General research for general circulation; not investment, legal or tax advice and not tailored to any reader. Every probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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