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World risk · Energy and resources

Israeli pipeline gas to Jordan stops for two weeks or more again

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Israeli pipeline gas deliveries to Jordan stop, or fall by half or more, for 14 days in a row, as either government or two sources report.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 5 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Israel's public broadcaster reported a raised military alert before the 27 Oct 2026 election [6]

Why it matters

Israel shut its Leviathan and Karish gas fields in both recent rounds of fighting with Iran: both from 13 to 25 Jun 2025, and both again from 28 Feb or 2 Mar 2026 (sources differ), Leviathan to 2 Apr and Karish to 9 Apr (industry and press reports). That cut the bulk of Israel's gas exports to Jordan and Egypt; the Tamar field kept running. Jordan must then replace that gas with costlier fuel (Strature's view; no Jordanian figure sourced). A renewed strike on Iran is the likely trigger.

Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: a strike need not shut the fields; each halt ended within six weeks.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: 14 days of lost pipeline gas.

The other facts on file (8)
  • Leviathan and Karish, which supply the bulk of exports to Egypt and Jordan, were shut from 13 Jun 2025 and restarted after the 24 Jun ceasefire [1] (25 Jun 2025)
  • Leviathan and Karish resumed operations on 25 Jun 2025; Tamar, mainly serving the home market, was the only field operating during the shutdown [10] (25 Jun 2025)
  • Israel's energy ministry ordered Leviathan's halt on 2 Mar 2026; regular production resumed on 2 Apr 2026 [2] (4 Apr 2026)
  • Leviathan and Karish were shut on 28 Feb 2026 at the start of the war; Leviathan was to restart after about a month while Karish stayed shut; Tamar kept operating throughout [3] (2 Apr 2026)
  • The IEA dates the precautionary shut-in of Leviathan and Karish to 28 Feb 2026 (and 2 Mar elsewhere in the report); Leviathan resumed normal operations on 2 Apr and Karish restarted on 9 Apr [8] (Apr 2026)
  • Israel's energy ministry instructed Energean to resume operations at Karish on 9 Apr 2026, after the US ceasefire with Iran; the platform had been closed since 28 Feb [9] (9 Apr 2026)
  • Israel exported 13.11 bcm of gas to Egypt and Jordan in 2024, out of 27.38 bcm produced [4] (7 Mar 2025)
  • Israeli gas covers 15-20% of Egypt's use [5] (25 Jun 2025)

Where it sits

JORDANISRAELLEBANON11. Israeli pipeline gas to Jordan stops for two weeks or more again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Israeli gas to Jordan cutElevated impact · possibleISRAELI GAS TO JORDAN CUT0200 kmat 31°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
JORDANISRAELLEBANON11. Israeli pipeline gas to Jordan stops for two weeks or more again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Israeli gasto Jordan cutISRAELI GAS TO JORDAN CUT0200 kmat 31°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Israeli pipeline gas deliveries to Jordan stop, or fall by half or more, for 14 days in a row, as either government or two sources report.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Power and fuelJordan must replace pipeline gas with other fuel, at a higher cost to its utility and budget (Strature's view).
  3. EgyptThe same shutdown cuts Egypt's pipeline supply and lifts its LNG imports [2][5].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Jordan, Egypt, Israel.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet fields

    No renewed strike on Iran and exports run normally.

  2. S2

    Short halt

    A brief exchange shuts the fields for less than two weeks, as in June 2025.

  3. S3

    Long halt

    A wider war keeps the fields shut for a month or more, as in March-April 2026.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
S2An Israeli energy ministry shut-in order
S3An operator's force majeure notice

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [7] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [7] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JORDAN · strature.net

The other side

Both halts ended within six weeks, and the fields restarted within days of a ceasefire or clearance [1][2]. Buyers' demand gives Israel a commercial reason to restart fast (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Israel to bring Leviathan gas field back online after closure during Iran tensions. Baird Maritime (Reuters) · 25 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Israel's Leviathan gas output restarts after shutdown. Argus Media · 4 Apr 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Leviathan restart after the war shutdown. Ynet · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Israel's gas exports to Egypt and Jordan increased by over 13% in 2024. Enerdata · 7 Mar 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Israel's Leviathan gas field to resume operations after shutdown. The New Arab · 25 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Lebanon watches Israel vote amid fears of renewed war. The New Arab · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (forecast F-0074). Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  8. Gas Market Report, Q2-2026 (pp. 46, 61). International Energy Agency · 2026-04 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 5 Nov 2026
  9. Israel Orders Restart of Ops at Karish Offshore Gas Platform. Offshore Engineer (Reuters) · 9 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 5 Nov 2026
  10. Israel's gas fields resume operations after shutdown during Iran conflict. Khaleej Times (Reuters) · 25 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 5 Nov 2026

Reviewed 5 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks