Iranian fire damages a site in Jordan again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an Iranian missile or drone lands on Jordanian territory (not an interception) and causes damage or casualties, as the Jordanian Armed Forces or two independent sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- France 24 relayed a New York Times report of plans for fresh US and Israeli strikes on Iran after the midterms [8]
- Iran's foreign minister said the strait would reopen and talks begin if the US met Iran's conditions [5]
- The US President posted that the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections [7]
- Iranian missiles hit Muwaffaq Salti Air Base; an A-10 severely damaged and about eight F-15Es lightly damaged, per people familiar; no US deaths, per US officials [4]
Why it matters
Iran fired at Jordan from the first day of the war, on 28 Feb 2026, and an Iranian missile strike damaged US aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base on 8 Sep, as US sources told reporters. US bases make Jordan a target whenever the US and Iran trade blows, and Strature's register holds an open forecast of a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran to 20 Nov. Most Iranian fire at Jordan has been intercepted.
Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: most fire intercepted; no hit since 8 Sep; the US President's pledge to the midterms; Iran's 18 Oct talks offer.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one hit with damage.
The other facts on file (3)
- Iran launched missiles at surrounding countries, Jordan included, after the US and Israeli strikes [3] (28 Feb 2026)
- Jordan's army said Iran fired 119 missiles and drones at Jordan in the first week, 108 intercepted (low) [6] (7 Mar 2026)
- Jordanian forces intercepted two missiles and two drones from Iran (5 Apr) and an Iranian missile attack on Azraq (11 Jun) [3] (11 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Iranian fire damages a site in Jordan againImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Jordan
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an Iranian missile or drone lands on Jordanian territory (not an interception) and causes damage or casualties, as the Jordanian Armed Forces or two independent sources report.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- SecurityA hit tests Jordan's air defences and its place as a host of US forces (Strature's view).
- EconomyInsurance and travel costs rise (Strature's view).
Sectors 2
- Ports and logistics
- Banks and insurers
Countries 3
- Jordan primary
- Iran
- United States
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Jordan, United States, Iran
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet front
No renewed US strike on Iran; Iranian fire stops.
- S2
Intercepted salvoes
Iran fires at US positions in Jordan again, all intercepted.
- S3
A hit
Debris or a warhead damages a base or town.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S2 | A Jordanian Armed Forces interception statement |
| S3 | A US or Israeli strike on Iran after the US midterms |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [1] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Iran's foreign minister said on 18 Oct the strait would reopen and talks begin if the US met Iran's conditions [5]; a deal would remove the trigger.
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Jordan
- Iran
- United States
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A renewed strike on Iran is that card's trigger and brings Iranian fire on US host states.
- An Iranian strike halts a Kuwaiti refinery, terminal or water plant Shares a channel: The Kuwaiti case of Iranian fire on a US host state.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Forecast register. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Jordan. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Iran Damages A-10, F-15s With Missile Attack on Air Base in Jordan. Air & Space Forces Magazine · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Iran war live updates. CBS News · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 Iranian strikes on Jordan. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Trump rules out new Iran attack before US midterm elections. France 24 (AFP) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline?. France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks