No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
This page answers: Who depends on this strait, who runs short first if it closes, and what is there to watch?
Using this page
Read the short version: the register box, the figures and who runs short first.
Open a scenario case for the worked arithmetic behind each day.
Choose Full analyst view for the tools, the sources and the method.
In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.
F-0200 · Taiwan and the Philippines: a named drill, no clash · 28%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · Open · brief C-005
F-0202 · Taiwan and the Philippines: coercion short of war (a blockade or quarantine of a Taiwan port) · 4%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Jun 2027 · Open · brief C-005
No oil or gas flow on file crosses this strait; the figure is the extra time at sea, as reported.
If it closes
Who runs short first
No oil or gas flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no country has a shortfall day to show here. The scenario case reads the extra voyage days instead.
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
What to watch
30 Jun 2027 F-0200 and F-0202, the linked forecasts above, resolve: named military exercises around Taiwan, and inspections, a quarantine or a closure on traffic to a Taiwan port.
Monthly Joint War Committee circulars: whether the Taiwan Strait becomes a listed area.
Monthly Taiwan's Ministry of Finance export statistics.
Questions firms in this position often review
Which of our ships or cargoes would be routed east of Taiwan, and what would that add to their voyage?
Which of our chips and components come from Taiwan, and at which stage of the chain?
In short No oil flow on file crosses the Taiwan Strait, so no volumes are shown; ships routed east of Taiwan add up to 3 days. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; it does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close.
Every figure on this page carries its source, its year and a link; figures from 2023 or older carry an amber mark. Route shares are modelled estimates on cited figures. The days in “Who runs short first” are read from the precomputed cases the network map and the scenario pages use; nothing is added across goods, late cargo is never added to lost cargo, and the EU (27) is never added to its members. The forecast box shows our register’s words and estimates unchanged, each scored when it resolves.