KQ-23: Between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, does the PLA stage a named joint exercise around Taiwan, do China and the Philippines come to an armed clash, or does it go further?

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Taiwan and the Philippines: no named drill and no clash

47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

No named joint exercise around Taiwan, no armed China-Philippines clash, and no blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan.

F-0199 · Open
Taiwan and the Philippines: a named drill, no clash

28% · unlikely · confidence not registered

At least one named joint exercise around Taiwan involving more than one service, with no clash and no blockade, quarantine or attack.

F-0200 · Open
Taiwan and the Philippines: a clash at sea

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

An armed clash between Chinese and Philippine forces (weapons used, or a ramming that holes or sinks a vessel), with no named exercise and no blockade or attack on Taiwan.

F-0201 · Open
Taiwan and the Philippines: all other outcomes

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Both a named exercise around Taiwan and an armed China-Philippines clash, with no blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan.

F-0204 · Open
Taiwan and the Philippines: coercion short of war (a blockade or quarantine of a Taiwan port)

4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

China imposes inspections, a quarantine or a closure on traffic to at least one Taiwan port, with no attack.

F-0202 · Open
Taiwan and the Philippines: open conflict (an attack)

3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

PLA forces attack Taiwan-held territory or forces.

F-0203 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). The Taiwan Strait carries about a fifth of the world's sea trade, and the PLA has staged no named large exercise around Taiwan since December 2025.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0199	3 Oct 2026	47%	Open
2	F-0200	3 Oct 2026	28%	Open
3	F-0201	3 Oct 2026	12%	Open
4	F-0204	3 Oct 2026	6%	Open
5	F-0202	3 Oct 2026	4%	Open
6	F-0203	3 Oct 2026	3%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

A drill, a clash at sea or a blockade near the Strait would test the sea lanes that carry the trade the brief follows.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

China

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0199
“Happened if, between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, the PLA Eastern Theater Command announces no named joint exercise around Taiwan, no armed clash between Chinese and Philippine forces occurs (weapons used, or a ramming that holes or sinks a vessel), and China imposes no blockade or quarantine on and makes no attack against Taiwan-held territory or forces.”
F-0200
“Happened if, between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, the PLA Eastern Theater Command announces at least one named joint exercise around Taiwan involving more than one service, and no armed clash between Chinese and Philippine forces occurs, and China imposes no blockade or quarantine on and makes no attack against Taiwan-held territory or forces.”
F-0201
“Happened if, between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, PRC armed forces or the China Coast Guard and Philippine armed forces or coast guard come to an armed clash - weapons used (gunfire, missiles, artillery, bladed or blunt weapons) or an intentional ramming that holes or sinks a vessel; water cannon, blocking, lasers, flares and warning shots do not count - and no named joint exercise around Taiwan is announced and China imposes no blockade or quarantine on and makes no attack against Taiwan-held territory or forces.”
F-0202
“Happened if, between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, PRC authorities impose inspections, a quarantine or a closure on traffic to at least one Taiwan port, and PLA forces make no attack against Taiwan-held territory or forces.”
F-0203
“Happened if, between 2 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, PLA forces attack Taiwan-held territory or forces.”
F-0204
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened by 2027-06-30: a named joint exercise around Taiwan AND an armed China-Philippines clash both occur in the window, with no blockade, quarantine or attack on Taiwan.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0199 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 1a950b6759a5b1c5201d5bb6d357c73876d8152c48698f75a50769a6db85828d
F-0200 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 bd1640fcaf28f5dfc038f7b7607c72501f985c1b0cb4256256a18194457e1c74
F-0201 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 69fb5dbec319782d9b7e9f7ba22f5c14b83b2c26e05fe0fa207e15c81ac4bb8b
F-0202 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 c2bff203e12331848ac66feeca415034597de2c7e7157c1ebd95907ad201a0c2
F-0203 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 7ca0c4c58fe39318656adb529dccdca5ec318a974bf488d0ba08e21c960f082d
F-0204 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 4a1718c06b4e3eadb8eb9b7dc6d62db5f451dfedae6736d408a6f2c3fb2d5a2f

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.