No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.
Archive edition. Researched 18 July 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
F-0020 · 13.74%
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| Exporters and traders | Direct investors and operators | Lenders, bondholders and insurers | Long-horizon allocators | Governments (as a channel of exposure) | People and labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz transit and oil | High | Medium | High | Medium | High | Medium |
| Compliance and payments | High | High | High | Low | Medium | Not assessed |
| Gulf infrastructure | Medium | High | High | Medium | High | Medium |
| Iraq energy dependency | Medium | High | Medium | Low | High | Not assessed |
| Red Sea shipping | High | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
| Operations inside Iran | Medium | High | Medium | Low | Low | High |
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“No. The most likely of six registered futures, a Guard-run holding pattern, stands at 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves; about 43% lies outside all six.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0009 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open · F-0011 6%, open · F-0021 4%, open. The forecast register
“Into that gap, the source judged, the Revolutionary Guard moved as the decisive force: the only intact institution of national reach when the clerical apex fell.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“As of 30 September 2026 no confirmed footage of him had been released since the appointment, according to Wikipedia's article on him (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026), which also records written messages attributed to him and read on state television.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“The source's central judgement on Iran's external position was that the leading powers now manage Iran rather than balance it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Three futures, Guard-Managed Attrition, Contested Drift and Frozen Siege, are variants of no resolution: the conflict grinds, freezes or muddles on.”
On the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0008 12%, open · F-0010 9%, open. The forecast register
Primary Iran
“With that arbiter gone, the source read Iran's risks as correlated rather than diversified: a shock to one raises the odds of movement in the rest.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The exposure travels with the transaction, not with the flag.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“No year since 1979 reordered the Gulf and the Levant as fast as 2026, and it did so mainly by taking things away from Iran.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Through mid-2026 the source found no elite defection and no fracture in the security forces.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“The largest Iran exposure most firms carry sits outside Iran: the strait, the oil price, the compliance chain, Gulf assets.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d to 28 Sep 2026, matching the pre-war baseline, under US military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers (Kpler, via CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Airports, fuel tanks and at least one desalination plant were struck, the source recorded; the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut in September 2026 after a drone strike launched from Iraq (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“About a third of Iraqi power generation depends on Iranian gas, a widely cited figure the source could not independently confirm; Iraqi militias and US forces struck each other during the war.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The US Energy Information Administration's daily Brent spot series shows a wider range over the same period: from US$68.53 to US$138.21 between 2 March and 17 July 2026 (EIA, release of 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Its fastest early-warning signal was whether the new Leader ever appears and speaks in his own voice.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“US forces struck Revolutionary Guard targets on 30 August and 1 September 2026, the first known US strike since 29 July, according to US Central Command as reported by Stars and Stripes (1 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United States
“Both moved down, and the unnamed tail moved up, from about 41% to about 43%: the correction made the outlook less confident, not more.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0020 14%, open · F-0021 4%, open · F-0007 15%, superseded, still scored · F-0012 5%, superseded, still scored. The forecast register
Primary Iran
“None moves inside two years; each decides the decade.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Two carry the shortest warning and the highest impact, on the source's reading: loss of custody of nuclear material and an apex decapitation.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
“Since the research date, the US President rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the strait on 26 September 2026 (Al Jazeera).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran Affected United States
“The call would be wrong if a single future became likely: above all, a durable settlement signed by an Iranian leadership able to deliver it, with independent nuclear verification restored and six months without cross-border strikes.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Iran
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0007 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) | 15.1% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Superseded, still scored |
| F-0008 | S3 Contested Drift / Paralysis | 11.7% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
| F-0009 | S5 Nuclear Dash under Pressure | 11.5% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
| F-0010 | S2 Frozen Siege | 9.2% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
| F-0011 | S6 Regime-Targeting War & Rupture | 6.5% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
| F-0012 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) | 5.3% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 23 Jul 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Superseded, still scored |
| F-0020 | S1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 | 13.74% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
| F-0021 | S4 Negotiated Off-ramp (LEAST LIKELY) corrected; supersedes F-0012 | 4.16% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 7 Aug 2026 | Resolves 18 Jul 2028 | Open |
The source was delivered and six futures registered as F-0007 to F-0012, resolving ~2028-07-18.
Strature forecast register, lines 195-200
US Central Command said it carried out a heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets after attempted attacks on US forces, as reported by Stars and Stripes.
Stars and Stripes, 1 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
F-0020 and F-0021 superseded F-0007 and F-0012 (odds-ceiling correction): 15.1% to 13.74% and 5.3% to 4.16%. The originals remain sealed and scored.
Strature forecast register, lines 127-202
According to OFAC's Iran programme page, OFAC published an alert titled 'Sanctions Risks of Iranian Demands for Strait of Hormuz Passage' (24 Aug 2026) and suspended Iran general licences F and G; licence J-1 followed on 8 Sep 2026.
OFAC, Iran programme page (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
US forces struck Revolutionary Guard forces that US Central Command said were attempting to lay mines, with strikes on Larak Island on 30 August, the first known US strike since 29 July; they struck Guard targets again on 1 September, according to US Central Command as reported.
Stars and Stripes, 1 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026); US Central Command's own site not read (robots.txt, per wave 1)
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after it was damaged in a drone strike launched from Iraq; loadings later picked up at Yanbu.
CNBC, 30 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Brent spot reached US$130.80, its highest daily price since April; the week to 25 September averaged US$117.08.
US Energy Information Administration, Brent spot, release of 30 Sep 2026
The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council threatened regional airports that comply with US measures against Iranian airlines, the Council on Foreign Relations reported, citing Al Jazeera.
Council on Foreign Relations, Global Conflict Tracker (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Iran presented a seven-day plan to reopen the strait if the US released frozen funds, lifted oil measures and ended its blockade; the US President rejected it. Iran's foreign minister said Iran would not back down on its conditions.
Al Jazeera, 26 Sep 2026 (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Crude through Hormuz reached a seven-day average of 13.5 mb/d, the pre-war baseline; refined products ran at 677,000 b/d against 3.6 mb/d before the war. Iran's own crude exports had fallen sharply under the US blockade. For crude and products together, CNBC, citing Kpler, gives 14.2 mb/d, and Wikipedia gives 13.19 mb/d; the conflict is printed, not resolved. About 40% of Gulf crude bypassed Hormuz by pipeline, against 17% before the war (Kpler, via CNBC), and Iranian attacks on tankers continued, some lethal (CNBC, 30 Sep 2026).
CNBC, 30 Sep 2026, citing Kpler (retrieved 30 Sep 2026); Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war (second-hand)
An unidentified projectile struck a vessel transiting the strait; the fire was put out and no casualties were reported, the Council on Foreign Relations reported, citing Al Jazeera.
Council on Foreign Relations, Global Conflict Tracker (retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
No confirmed footage of the new Leader had been released since his appointment; written messages attributed to him were read on state television. The source's master signal has not fired.
Wikipedia, Mojtaba Khamenei (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
A historic low of 2.5 million rials to the dollar was reported, against about 1.9 million in the source edition's July reading.
Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war (second-hand, retrieved 30 Sep 2026)
Whether any of these events bears on the registered futures is decided only at resolution on ~2028-07-18. All eight are printed and scored as registered.
Strature forecast register (W-35)
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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