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Pakistan

No published question names Pakistan yet; our country analysis is below.

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Locator map: Pakistan filled in coral; the countries its questions name as affected outlined in white.
Country analysis

Questions answered

The questions our published briefs answer that touch Pakistan.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Pakistan

Pakistan is among the most exposed importers, yet no released brief treats it as exposed. Gulf LNG, fuel, remittances and Saudi deposits all matter at once; the GCC supplies 81% of its fuel imports.

Theme band High

98%

of LNG imports from Qatar (2025)

81%

of fuel imports from the GCC (IMF, Apr 2026)

5.52%

of GDP: remittances from the GCC, US$22.52bn (FY2025/26)

37.3%

of SBP reserves: Saudi deposits of US$8bn (US$5bn on a three-year tenor, US$3bn rolled over in July)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Gas: QatarEnergy force majeure runs to 4 Nov 2026; spot bids at US$26.97/MMBtu were rejected in September, and 3,600 MW of night-peak power was lost in August. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Fuel: a record diesel premium of US$34 a barrel in April, and petrol cover of 18 days in September. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Prices: CPI inflation reached 10.3% in Sep 2026, with transport up 27.4%. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Remittances keep rising: US$3.66bn in Aug 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Food exports to the Gulf: 51.1% of animal-product exports go to the GCC.

Uncertainties

  • A Saudi deferred-oil facility of US$6.7bn was requested in July; no signature was found by 6 Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The Saudi-backed Gwadar refinery (US$10bn) was first pledged in 2019; no construction start was found in the sources read by Oct 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Pakistan opened 6 overland transit routes to Iran in Apr 2026 (Transit of Goods Order 2026); how much trade uses them, and under what sanctions exposure, is not assessed here. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 4 Nov 2026QatarEnergy force majeure to Pakistan due to end (as reported).
  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves.
  • Late Nov–Dec 2026IMF fourth EFF review: next tranche of about US$1.0bn.
  • WeeklySBP-held reserves: US$21.44bn on 25 Sep 2026.
  • MonthlyState Bank remittances by country; Qatari cargo arrivals.

Exposure by lens

Exposure band per lens, with the figure and the published line
LensFigureBandPublished line
LNGDependence98% 2025Share of LNG imports from QatarHighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Crude oilDependence80%est. 2025-2026Share of crude imports passing through HormuzHighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Refined productsDependence78%est. 2024Middle East share of domestic oil consumptionHighHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%
SulphurFood and farming76.5% 2024Share of sulphur imports (HS 2503) from Gulf producers (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%
RemittancesRemittances5.52% of GDP FY2025/26GCC remittances as % of GDPHighHigh ≥5% · Medium 2–5% · Low <2 but ≥US$1bn
Gulf capitalCapital and finance37.3% of SBP reserves 2026-09Gulf (Saudi) deposits at SBP as % of SBP-held reservesHighHigh ≥10 or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% · Low <2 but ≥US$1bn
Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming26.1% 2024Share of urea imports from Gulf producers (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq)MediumHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25%
Exports to the GulfTrade8.9% exports 2023Share of goods exports to GCC6+IranLowHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Remittances by source, FY2025/26 (US$ bn)
Remittances from Saudi Arabia: US$9.78bn (FY2025/26)Saudi Arabia9.78Remittances from the UAE: US$8.81bn (FY2025/26)UAE8.81Remittances from other GCC states (Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain): US$3.93bn (FY2025/26)Other GCC states3.93Workers' remittances, total: US$41.6bn (FY2025/26)Total41.6Remittances from the six GCC states: US$22.52bn (FY2025/26) (our calculation)Six GCC states*22.52

GulfTotals

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Remittances: cushion with a catch (Business Recorder Research, citing SBP). * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • GCC remittances as % of GDP: 5.52% of GDP (= 22.52 / 407.786)
  • Gulf (Saudi) deposits at SBP as % of SBP-held reserves: 37.3% of SBP reserves (= (5 + 3) / 21.439)
  • Share of goods exports to GCC6+Iran: 8.9% exports (= WITS tradestats API XPRT-TRD-VL (reporter data): world 28.75bn, GCC6 2.55bn, Iran 0.01bn; (2.55+0.01)/28.75)
  • Scenario: combined one-quarter FX hit (LNG premium + oil price + 10% fall in GCC remittances) as % of SBP reserves: 9.1% of SBP reserves (= (0.67 + 0.71 + 2.25 / 4) / 21.439 = 1.94 / 21.439)
  • Scenario: extra FX cost of replacing Qatari LNG with spot cargoes for 3 months (Nov 2026-Jan 2027) after a renewed strike: US$0.67bn (= cargoes × 3.076m MMBtu × (spot - 12.24); central 6 a month × 3 × (24.43 - 12.24); low 12 × (21.88 - 12.24); high 21 × (26.97 - 12.24))
  • Scenario: extra oil import bill for one quarter if a renewed strike adds US$10-20/bbl: US$0.71bn per quarter (= 1.9 × 1.5 / 4 (low 1.8 × 1 / 4; high 2.0 × 2 / 4))
  • Scenario: annual reserve hit from a 10% fall in GCC remittances: US$2.25bn per year (= 0.10 × 22.52)
  • Remittances from the six GCC states: US$22.52bn (= 9.78 + 8.81 + 3.93)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz

ISO 3166-1 name: Pakistan (PAK). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

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