Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting
The test The World Bank's monthly urea price (prill, spot f.o.b. Middle East) averages US$650 per tonne or more in any month from January to May 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Gulf economies supplied 24.8% of world nitrogenous fertiliser exports (WTO data). [3]
- World imports of nitrogenous fertilisers ran only 2.8% below recent averages. [4]
- Urea averaged US$472.0 in Feb 2026, US$725.6 in Mar, US$856.9 in Apr, US$770.5 in May, US$453.1 in Jun and US$407.5 in Sep 2026. [1]
- Europe's gas price averaged US$25.42 per MMBtu in Sep 2026 against US$11.24 in Feb. [1]
- An amendment moved the IPL tender's latest sailing date from 15 Dec to 1 Dec 2026. [11]
- India imported about 4.75 Mt of urea in Apr-Aug 2026, up about 133%; IPL opened a 1.7 Mt tender on 23 Sep. [6]
Why it matters
It happened this spring: the World Bank's urea price jumped from US$472 a tonne in February 2026 to US$856.9 in April after the Hormuz war cut Gulf supply, then fell back to US$407.5 by September. A second spike at the next planting season would raise farm costs from India to Brazil; Canada's nitrogen makers would gain.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: LNG through Hormuz largely blocked as of 28 Sep; Europe gas US$25.42 in September; heavy Indian buying; prices rebounding from summer lows. Brakes: Chinese exports under quota.
Why Impact 7 Key price World Bank monthly urea. South Asia, Latin America. Canada gains as a producer.
The other facts on file (3)
- China banned many fertiliser exports in March 2026 and issued urea export quotas in May; it exported 4.9 Mt of urea in 2025 (StoneX data, as reported). [5] (27 May 2026)
- Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman made about 15.0 Mt of the world's 160 Mt of ammonia nitrogen in 2025; Canada made 3.8 Mt and supplied 49% of US ammonia imports in 2021-24. [8] (5 Feb 2026)
- Australia secured about 340,000 t of extra urea through its A$7.5bn facility, in partnership with Incitec Pivot, CSBP and Summit Fertilizer. [9] (16 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
The World Bank's monthly urea price (prill, spot f.o.b. Middle East) averages US$650 per tonne or more in any month from January to May 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanadian ammonia makers, 49% of US ammonia imports in 2021-24 [8], gain on price; cost to Canadian farmers not sourced.
- Food pricesDearer nitrogen cuts application rates and yields and feeds into grain prices a season later (Strature's view).
- Import billsSouth Asian and African spot buyers pay more; Bangladesh and Pakistan risk losing their own output to gas shortfalls.
- Government budgetsIndia's tenders [6] and Australia's A$7.5bn facility [9] show states carrying the cost.
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Energy and pipelines
Straits 1
Who is exposed
- Countries
- India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, United States, Canada
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
- Companies
- Indian Potash Ltd, Incitec Pivot, CSBP, Summit Fertilizer
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Supply keeps adapting
Chinese quotas, Indian stocks and non-Gulf plants hold urea under US$500.
- S2
A second planting squeeze
Gulf shipping through Hormuz stays largely blocked through the northern spring and gas stays dear; urea passes US$650 in March or April 2027.
- S3
Reopening
A Hormuz deal lets Gulf plants ship and prices fall toward 2025 levels.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | India's tender clears below US$450 CFR |
| S2 | World Bank January 2027 urea price above US$550 |
| S3 | QatarEnergy lifts force majeure |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 3 Nov 2026 World Bank Pink Sheet with October prices [2] Declared · Outside event
- 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure on LNG runs to this date [10] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Dec 2026 Latest sailing date for India's 1.7 Mt urea tender (moved from 15 Dec) [11] Declared · Outside event
- Jun 2027 Pink Sheet with May 2027 prices; scored window closes [2] Tentative · Strature date
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The other side
Producers outside the Gulf earn more. Canada's ammonia makers, already the largest foreign supplier to the US market, gain on price, and China's quotas turned spare capacity into exports. Buyers who stocked early, like Australia, are covered for part of the next season (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Urea and nitrogen fertilisers
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- Oman
- Iran
- India
- Canada
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Gulf urea and its gas feedstock pass through the strait; Gulf economies supply 24.8% of nitrogenous fertiliser exports.
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Drives: Dearer nitrogen at planting lifts grain costs later.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Gas sets nitrogen costs; Europe's gas price was US$25.42 in September 2026.
- The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included Shares a channel: Both price farm inputs where Canada is the main US supplier.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices and indices. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet page). World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- T-003: Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven. World Trade Organization · 8 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- China allows fresh urea exports amid Iran war-fuelled fertiliser crisis, sources say (Reuters). TimesLIVE · 27 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- India opens 1.7m tonne urea tender as Q4 prices rebound. Fertilizer Daily · 28 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nitrogen (fixed), ammonia. US Geological Survey · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Securing more fertiliser for Australian farmers. Export Finance Australia · 16 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- India urea tender: IPL seeks 1.7 million tonnes, pulls key shipment deadline forward to December 1. Fertilizer Daily · 29 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks