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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · Food, climate & health

World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150

The test FAO publishes a monthly Food Price Index value (2014-2016 = 100) of 150.0 points or more for any month from October 2026 to September 2027, in its releases up to early October 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ Since 2 Oct 2026: FAO's September index (136.0) was the highest since November 2022, with cereals up a twentieth in a month [1][2].

Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth8
Depth4
Duration6
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. FFPI 136.0 in Sep 2026, +1.5% m/m, +5.8% y/y, 24.3 points below the March 2022 peak [1]
  2. FFPI 124.1 in Jan 2026; last above 136.0 in Oct 2022 (136.7); 160.2 in Mar 2022; above 150 Mar-Jun 2022 only [2]
  3. Cereals 122.8, +5.1% m/m, +17.2% y/y; wheat highest since Aug 2023; maize highest in over three years [1]
  4. Vegetable oils 198.6, +18.3% y/y; palm oil up a fourth month [1]
  5. Sugar +6.1% m/m, +14.7% y/y; dairy -19.1% y/y; meat unchanged y/y [1]
  6. 2026 cereal output 2,979 Mt, -2.1%; stocks-to-use 31.7% vs 32.0% [3]

Why it matters

FAO's Food Price Index stood at 136.0 in September 2026, up 5.8% on a year and its highest since November 2022 (equal at 136.0). Cereals, oils and sugar are rising with a strong El Niño under way; it needs a further 10.3% to reach 150, last seen from March to June 2022.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: El Niño officially confirmed; cereals and oils rising for months (index 124.1 in Jan to 136.0 in Sep 2026). Brakes: another 14 points needed, dairy down by about a fifth on a year, meat flat, cereal stocks-to-use close to last season's.

Why Impact 6 Importers on every continent; threshold case +10.3% on the index (8-12% step); months above 150 in 2022 (four); many suppliers. Canada's farm channel is a gain.

The other facts on file (1)
  • IPOSS forecast Indonesia Jul-Sep 2026 palm exports about 4.3 Mt vs 8.3 Mt; B50 from 1 Jul 2026 [7] (17 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

FAO publishes a monthly Food Price Index value (2014-2016 = 100) of 150.0 points or more for any month from October 2026 to September 2027, in its releases up to early October 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaHigher wheat and canola revenue; consumer food prices up (not sized).
  2. Import billsA 10.3% rise, from 136.0 in September to the 150 threshold (Strature calculation from [1]), lifts food import costs across Africa, South Asia and the Middle East.
  3. Inflation and budgetsHigher food inflation and subsidy costs in low-income economies.
  4. Trade policyHigh prices bring export restrictions, as with India's rice ban of 2023 [12].

Goods 2

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Who is exposed

Countries
Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Ethiopia, Sri Lanka
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Goods
Wheat, Rice, Maize, Palm oil, Sugar

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady climb, below 150

    El Niño cuts some harvests but stocks cushion them; the index rises into the low 140s.

  2. S2

    The 2022 level returns

    A failed southern Africa maize season and a rice or palm oil export ban push the index past 150 by mid-2027.

  3. S3

    The rise stalls

    El Niño fades by spring and Black Sea logistics ease; dairy and meat keep falling.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1FAO release of 6 Nov 2026
S2an Indian or Indonesian export ban
S2FAO cereals index above 130
S3two monthly falls in a row in the FFPI

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 6 Nov 2026 FAO Food Price Index for October [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 12 Nov 2026 NOAA ENSO discussion [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 4 Dec 2026 Statistics Canada 2026 crop estimates [9] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 1 Jan 2027 Indonesia's state-exporter rule for palm oil takes full effect [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. Oct 2027 FAO release for September 2027, the window's last month [1] Tentative · Strature date

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Grain and oilseed exporters gain: Canada's wheat and canola growers, with about 58 Mt forecast between the two crops in 2026 [9], sell into rising prices. Falling dairy prices, down by about a fifth on a year [1], ease part of the bill for importers.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. FAO Food Price Index (September 2026 release). Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. FAO Food Price Index, nominal monthly data from 1990 (CSV). Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. IPOSS: domestic demand to reshape Indonesia's palm oil industry as B50 tightens national CPO supply. InfoSAWIT · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Indonesia introduces new palm oil regulation ahead of 2027 implementation (citing ANTARA). TradeArabia · 14 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 2026. Statistics Canada · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Global rice markets face stresses from El Niño, India export restrictions. CGIAR (IFPRI, Glauber and Mamun) · 2 Oct 2023 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks