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World risks / Also watching

Food, climate & health

17 risks have this as their main hotspot, and 1 more is listed here. The strongest: The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu (Severe impact · unlikely).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
Security
This month
▲ rising
Status
Under way
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
World
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu: Severe impact · unlikely22. A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply: Elevated impact · under way33. India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year: Elevated impact · possible44. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150: Elevated impact · possible55. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean: Elevated impact · possible66. The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time: Elevated impact · possible77. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again: Elevated impact · possible88. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027: Elevated impact · possible99. El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood: Elevated impact · possible1010. The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back: Elevated impact · possible1111. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027: Elevated impact · possible1212. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season: Elevated impact · possible1313. Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis: Elevated impact · possible1414. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season: Elevated impact · possible1515. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth: Elevated impact · unlikely1616. River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027: Low impact · possible1717. England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use: Low impact · possible1 · Severe impact · unlikely2 · Elevated impact · under way3 · Elevated impact · possible4 · Elevated impact · possible5 · Elevated impact · possible6 · Elevated impact · possible7 · Elevated impact · possible8 · Elevated impact · possible9 · Elevated impact · possible10 · Elevated impact · possible11 · Elevated impact · possible12 · Elevated impact · possible13 · Elevated impact · possible14 · Elevated impact · possible17 · Low impact · possibleStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The CDC or WHO confirms sustained human-to-human spread of H5N1 bird flu: Severe impact · unlikely22. A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply: Elevated impact · under way33. India, Indonesia or Russia bans exports of rice, palm oil or wheat in the El Niño year: Elevated impact · possible44. World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150: Elevated impact · possible55. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean: Elevated impact · possible66. The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time: Elevated impact · possible77. El Niño's dry season forces the Panama Canal to cut drafts again: Elevated impact · possible88. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027: Elevated impact · possible99. El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood: Elevated impact · possible1010. The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back: Elevated impact · possible1111. Indonesian fire haze returns to Singapore at unhealthy levels in 2027: Elevated impact · possible1212. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season: Elevated impact · possible1313. Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis: Elevated impact · possible1414. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry season: Elevated impact · possible1515. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth: Elevated impact · unlikely1616. River heat forces three or more French reactors to stop or cut output at once in summer 2027: Low impact · possible1717. England's drought carries into 2027 with a ban on non-essential water use: Low impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of MalaccaTaiwan StraitINDIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

A theme hotspot has no single place: the map hatches and names its main countries, and draws each risk on the country it starts in.

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  8. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027Elevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
9 more risks in this hotspot
  5. Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisisElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  6. Northern Vietnam runs short of power in the 2027 dry seasonElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady

Also listed here risks whose main hotspot is another