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World risk · Energy and resources · Food, climate & health

Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027

The test Produce does not open a first 2027 anchovy season in Peru's north-centre zone by 31 Jul 2027, or announces before that date that it will not open one.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. No second 2026 north-centre season; biomass about 5.12 Mt to 7 Oct, 27.9% below summer 2026 and 22.8% below the 1996-2025 winter-spring average; juveniles 79% by number, 65% by weight [1]
  2. SNP: industrial fishing could stay stopped for more than a year, until a season planned for 2027 [2]
  3. SNP asks the government for job and liquidity support after no second 2026 season [12]
  4. ENFEN: extraordinary magnitude off Peru until January 2027, strong until early autumn 2027; next communiqué 30 Oct 2026 [3]
  5. ENFEN communiqué 18-2026 keeps the Coastal El Niño Alert [4]
  6. Niño-3.4 at +2.1 C over the past month (8 Oct discussion); strong to very strong El Niño likely through Jan-Mar 2027 [5]
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. World Bank fishmeal (herring meal, 64% protein, FOB North Germany): US$1,706/t in 2025, US$2,045/t in Apr-Jun 2026; replacement series from July 2026 [9]
  2. First 2026 season closed at 24.61% of quota; RM 00323-2026-PRODUCE waives the 80% landing rule [7]

Why it matters

On 16 Oct 2026 Peru's Ministry of Production said it would not authorise a second anchovy season in the north-centre zone this year: Imarpe found the stock 22.8% below its 1996-2025 winter-spring average and mostly juveniles. The coastal El Niño is forecast to stay extraordinary until January 2027 and strong into early autumn. The first season, normally opened in April, is the one that matters for 2027 fishmeal; in 2023 a coastal El Niño cancelled it.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: ENFEN extraordinary to strong into early autumn 2027; biomass well below average and mostly juveniles; SNP warns of a stop of more than a year; 2023 precedent. Brakes: a first season opened in April 2026 while the coast was warming; spawning continues; SNP speaks of a 2027 season.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: no first season by 31 Jul 2027.

The other facts on file (3)
  • First 2026 quota about 1.9 Mt, lowest in a decade excluding 2023, when no first season was held; 2025 first-season landings 2.5 Mt [6] (17 Apr 2026)
  • 2023: cancelling the first season cut exports by almost US$600m (production minister) [8] (23 Aug 2023)
  • Fishmeal exports about US$1.87bn in 2025, 78.93% to China (trade-data firm) [10] (2025)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Peru opens no first anchovy season in 2027: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Produce does not open a first 2027 anchovy season in Peru's north-centre zone by 31 Jul 2027, or announces before that date that it will not open one.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ExportsA lost first season removes most of 2027's anchovy catch and fishmeal exports [10].
  3. Jobs and regionsUp to 78,000 jobs at risk in an extreme scenario (ComexPerú, as reported) [11].
  4. Feed buyersBuyers turn to other origins or plant protein (Strature's view).

Goods 2

  • Fishmeal
  • Fish oil

Sectors 3

  • Fishing
  • Animal feed
  • Aquaculture

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Peru, China
Sectors
Fishing, Animal feed, Aquaculture
Goods
Fishmeal, Fish oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Late opening

    Imarpe's summer cruise finds adults and Produce opens a reduced first season in May or June.

  2. S2

    No first season

    El Niño stays strong into April and juveniles dominate; no first season, as in 2023.

  3. S3

    Exploratory only

    Exploratory fishing finds mostly juveniles, as in 2023, and no season opens.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Imarpe summer cruise result
S2ENFEN April 2027 communiqué
S3A ministerial resolution for exploratory fishing

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 End of ENFEN's extraordinary-magnitude window [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Apr 2027 Usual start of the first north-centre season [6] Tentative · Window
  3. 31 Jul 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · PERU · strature.net

The other side

Other fishmeal origins and plant proteins gain share. Produce says it will study samasa, a warm-water species, as an alternative catch [1]. A closed season also protects the stock for later seasons (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Produce descarta segunda temporada de pesca de anchoveta en la zona norte-centro. Forbes Perú · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Pesca industrial de anchoveta podría paralizarse por más de un año tras decisión de Produce. Infobae · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. El Niño Costero se extendería hasta el otoño de 2027, según el último reporte del Enfen. Infobae · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Comunicado Oficial ENFEN N° 18-2026. ENFEN · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Cuota de anchoveta para la primera temporada de 2026 es la más baja en una década. Infobae · 17 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Anchoveta: industriales no perderán cuota futura por baja captura en la primera temporada 2026. Infobae · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Cancelar la I temporada de pesca de anchoveta provocó pérdidas de USD 600 millones. RPP · 23 Aug 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), October 2026. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  10. Exportación Harina de Pescado Perú: Cifras y Mercados 2025-2026. Datasur · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  11. Anchoveta y El Niño en Perú: hasta 78.000 empleos en riesgo. Pyme Noticias · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  12. Produce cierra el 2026 sin segunda temporada de anchoveta y la SNP pide apoyo al Gobierno. La República · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks