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Taiwan Strait & China

11 risks have this as their main hotspot. The strongest: China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence (Elevated impact · possible).

This page answers: Which risks gather in this hotspot, and how strong is each one?

Using this page
  1. Read each circle: its size shows Impact, its colour shows this month's trend.
  2. Read Likelihood in words beside each risk in the list.
  3. Click a circle or a risk to open its own page.
Lens
Geopolitics
This month
▼ falling
Status
Not under way
Reviewed
28 Oct 2026
Region
Taiwan Strait11. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence: Elevated impact · possible22. China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade: Elevated impact · possible33. China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan: Elevated impact · possible44. The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybrids: Elevated impact · unlikely55. A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury: Elevated impact · unlikely88. China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall: Elevated impact · possible99. China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports: Elevated impact · possible66. Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse: Elevated impact · possible77. Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?: Elevated impact · possible1010. The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong: Elevated impact · unlikely1111. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027: Low impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possible3 · Elevated impact · possible4 · Elevated impact · unlikely8 · Elevated impact · possible+ 2 more in the list2 · Elevated impact · possible6 · Elevated impact · possible7 · Elevated impact · possible5 · Elevated impact · unlikely10 · Elevated impact · unlikelyTaiwan StraitTokyoCHINAJAPANSOUTH KOREANORTH KOREAVIETNAMEAST CHINA SEASOUTH CHINA SEAPHILIPPINE SEA0500 kmat 30°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Taiwan Strait11. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defence: Elevated impact · possible22. China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockade: Elevated impact · possible33. China puts a new curb on civilian trade with Japan: Elevated impact · possible44. The EU-China hybrid cap fails and the EU puts duties on Chinese hybrids: Elevated impact · unlikely55. A Japan-China encounter at sea or in the air ends in a collision, gunfire or injury: Elevated impact · unlikely88. China takes formal counter-measures against Mexico's tariff wall: Elevated impact · possible99. China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports: Elevated impact · possible66. Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse: Elevated impact · possible77. Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov?: Elevated impact · possible1010. The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong Kong: Elevated impact · unlikely1111. China's tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab return on 1 January 2027: Low impact · possibleTaiwan StraitShanghaiCHINASOUTH KOREAEAST CHINA SEA0300 kmat 30°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
The strait
Taiwan StraitTaipeiKaohsiungXiamenFuzhouCHINATAIWAN0100 kmat 24°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Taiwan StraitTaipeiKaohsiungXiamenFuzhouCHINATAIWAN0100 kmat 24°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Circle size · ImpactlowelevatedhighColour · this monthrisingsteadyfallingcrimson ring: under waymain lane, schematicchokepoint

Source · Strature risk cards with this main hotspot · Map data: Natural Earth (public domain). · lanes schematic · places approximateData as of 31 Oct 2026

Risks in this hotspot Strongest first; Impact and Likelihood in words

  1. China's export surge meets a wall of trade defenceElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  2. China squeezes Taiwan's sea lanes: quarantine or blockadeElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
  3. China puts a new curb on civilian trade with JapanElevated impact · possible · ▶ steady
3 more risks in this hotspot
  2. The US puts new sanctions on officials over Hong KongElevated impact · unlikely · ▶ steady