Taiwan's legislature cuts the record supplementary budget by more than a tenth, or lets it lapse
The test By 31 Dec 2026, the Legislative Yuan either does not pass the 2026 supplementary budget at third reading, or passes it with spending cut by more than 10% (over NT$60.8bn) from the Cabinet's NT$607.63bn.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Cabinet proposed NT$71.1bn for Taipower; Taipower accumulated losses to reach NT$420bn; 12.83% rate rise proposed, next review in December [7]
- Oil and power items top NT$410bn; price-gap items NT$180.9bn; CPC injection about 38.5% of the total; TPP to review CPC and subsidies item by item [3]
- Budget Center says early submission could breach the Budget Act; Cabinet cites Article 79; 2026 general budget passed 14 Aug [5]
- Premier asks for third reading by end-November; if not passed by 31 Dec the whole budget becomes invalid, incl. allowances backdated to 1 Jul [4]
- Executive Yuan approved NT$607.63bn (US$19.13bn): NT$421.3bn economic stabilisation incl. NT$233.8bn CPC and NT$187.5bn price controls and subsidies (fuel, household gas, power and others); NT$145.69bn weapons [1]
- KMT caucus secretary-general Hsu Yu-chen: CPC injection belongs in the 2027 budget; does not rule out deleting it in full; proposes NT$10,000 per-person handout [2]
Why it matters
On 3 Sep 2026 the Cabinet approved a record NT$607.63bn (US$19.13bn) supplementary budget, mostly to hold down fuel, gas and power prices after the Middle East war. Its largest item, a NT$233.8bn capital injection into the state oil firm CPC, is one the KMT caucus does not rule out deleting in full. The Cabinet says the whole budget lapses if it is not passed by 31 Dec, and asks for a third reading by the end of November.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: KMT and TPP plan strict item-by-item review; Budget Center legal doubts; 2026 general budget passed only 14 Aug. Brakes: welfare and pay rises lapse with the bill; a KMT legislator sees a hard public fight after cuts; Premier's end-November deadline. An open contest.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: the bill lapses unpassed on 31 Dec, delaying NT$607.63bn (about US$19.13bn) of spending; the war losses stay on CPC's and Taipower's books.
The other facts on file (1)
- TPP proposed an across-the-board cut of about 2%, more than NT$60bn, to the 2026 general budget [6] (20 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
By 31 Dec 2026, the Legislative Yuan either does not pass the 2026 supplementary budget at third reading, or passes it with spending cut by more than 10% (over NT$60.8bn) from the Cabinet's NT$607.63bn.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Passed nearly whole
Third reading by end-November with cuts under 10%.
- S2
CPC moved to 2027
The CPC injection is deleted and returned in the 2027 budget.
- S3
Lapse
No third reading by 31 Dec; welfare and pay items fall with it.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | KMT and TPP caucuses sign off the CPC item in committee |
| S2 | A committee vote on the CPC line after 28 Nov |
| S3 | No floor vote scheduled by mid-December |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 28 Nov 2026 Local elections [8] Declared · Outside event
- 30 Nov 2026 Premier's target for third reading [4] Declared · Outside event
- Dec 2026 Taipower rate review (12.83% proposal) [7] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Dec 2026 Supplementary budget lapses if not passed [4] Declared · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Taiwan
- Will the KMT win 13 or more of Taiwan's 22 mayor and county posts on 28 Nov? Driven by: The 28 Nov vote sets the parties' mood for the budget fight.
- A fuel shortfall forces rolling power cuts in Taiwan Shares a channel: Taipower's fuel costs and finances.
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Driven by: War-driven LNG costs are what the bill covers.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Executive Yuan approves record budget. Taipei Times · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 政院追加預算中油增資最多 綠指穩定物價藍不排除全刪. Central News Agency · 3 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 油電撥補預算逾4100億 藍白嚴審批全民填洞、憂宣傳戰兩難. United Daily News · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 政院:追加預算年底若未審畢 社福津貼加碼恐將失效. United Daily News (CNA) · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Taiwan Cabinet rejects claims supplementary budget breaks rules. Taiwan News · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 喊話嚴審 在野擬統刪總預算600億. United Daily News · 20 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Taipower fuel costs to increase amid tensions. Taipei Times · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- 2026九合一選舉 22縣市長登記參選名單一次看. Central News Agency · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks