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World risk · Energy and resources · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, force majeure on Qatari LNG deliveries to one or more Asian term buyers is extended to a date after 30 Nov 2026, as stated by a buyer or reported by two independent sources.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth3
Duration6
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war; Tehran expected to respond by the end of the week (an official to Reuters) [16]
  2. Pezeshkian due to meet Putin in Moscow on 27 Oct at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit (AFP, citing Tasnim); no report that the meeting took place found [18] [17]
  3. Two Ras Laffan trains with 12.8 Mtpa (about 17% of export capacity) damaged; repairs three to five years; announced 22 Oct: QatarEnergy to buy up to 4 Mtpa of US LNG from Cheniere from 2031 to 2054 [4]
  4. Argus northeast Asia spot LNG US$29.97/MMBtu on 19 Oct 2026, almost four-year high [11]
  5. LNG Canada Phase 2 final investment decision (late September; release dated 29 Sep), C$33bn, capacity to 28 Mtpa [9]
  6. Force majeure on deliveries to Asia and Europe extended to the end of November from end-October (buyers in Bangladesh, Pakistan and at least one in India); Edison to early December, confirmed by Edison; LNG traffic through the strait largely blocked; exports down by as much as 96% and US$24bn of lost sales (Reuters calculations) [1]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. Qatar Q2 2026 budget deficit QAR21.2bn (Ministry of Finance) [8]
  2. Force majeure first declared 4 Mar 2026; Petrobangla had no formal notice on 1 Sep; 18 LNG cargoes in the first six months of the war against 509 a year earlier (ICIS); Petrobangla expects about half of 56 contracted FY2026-27 cargoes [2]
  3. Qatar oil and gas revenue about QAR874 million in Q2 2026 against about QAR34bn in Q2 2025 (Ministry of Finance data, as reported; low confidence) [15]

Why it matters

Qatari LNG has been under force majeure since early March 2026. On 28 Sep the notices to buyers in Bangladesh, Pakistan and at least one buyer in India were extended to the end of November, and Italy's Edison to early December. The question is whether the stop runs past 30 Nov: the strait is still largely closed to LNG carriers and two Ras Laffan trains are out for three to five years.

Why Likelihood 8 Not yet under way: force majeure to Asian buyers runs to 30 Nov; only Edison's European notice runs past it. Pushes: LNG traffic largely blocked; 18 cargoes in six months against 509; two trains out for three to five years.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case one more month of force majeure to Asian buyers; key price northeast Asia spot LNG.

The other facts on file (5)
  • QatarEnergy halted production on 2 Mar and declared force majeure; Excelerate passed force majeure to Petrobangla in the first week of March and extends it monthly; Bangladesh imported 35 spot cargoes by July 2026 [3] (16 Jul 2026)
  • Pakistan 98% of LNG from Qatar in 2025; India and Bangladesh about 60% from Qatar and the UAE; Singapore over half [5] (2026)
  • Taiwan imported 23.75 Mt of LNG in 2025 [6] (2026)
  • KOGAS holds Qatari term contracts, reported at 6.1 Mtpa [7] (5 Mar 2026)
  • Ksi Lisims LNG final investment decision expected before the end of 2026 (company) [10] (9 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of Hormuz11. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026: Elevated impact · likely1 · Elevated impact · likelyStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULFGULF OF OMAN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz11. Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026: Elevated impact · likelyStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, force majeure on Qatari LNG deliveries to one or more Asian term buyers is extended to a date after 30 Nov 2026, as stated by a buyer or reported by two independent sources.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; the channel is a gain for Pacific-coast LNG.
  2. South Asia power and gasPakistan, India and Bangladesh buy more spot cargoes at winter prices.
  3. East Asian utilitiesTaiwan and South Korea compete for the same spot cargoes.
  4. EuropeEdison's notice runs to early December; the Italian case is a separate risk.

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Who is exposed

Countries
Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Qatar
Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
LNG
Straits
Strait of Hormuz
Companies
QatarEnergy, Petrobangla, Excelerate Energy, Edison, KOGAS

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Month by month

    Notices roll forward through winter while the strait stays closed to LNG.

  2. S2

    Reopening, slow ramp

    A US-Iran text reopens the strait; force majeure lifts in steps, but the two lost trains stay out.

  3. S3

    Renewed strikes

    A new US or Israeli strike on Iran shuts the strait harder and pushes the end date into 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A new end date for Asian buyers in late November
S2Qatari LNG carriers transit without escort
S3Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) resolves [12] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. 30 Nov 2026 Force majeure for Asian buyers lapses unless extended [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Dec 2026 Edison's force majeure ends unless extended (early December) [1] Declared · Outside event
  4. 31 Dec 2026 Ksi Lisims LNG's final investment decision, expected before the end of 2026 (company) [10] Tentative · Opportunity

    Remind me

  5. 2031 Cheniere deliveries to QatarEnergy due to begin [4] Declared · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Supply from outside the strait gains. LNG Canada's partners took the Phase 2 final investment decision in late September 2026 (C$33bn, 28 Mtpa) [9], and Ksi Lisims LNG says its decision is expected before the end of 2026 [10]. Asian buyers' search for supply that avoids Hormuz widens demand for Pacific-coast LNG (Strature's view; not a view on any company or project).

Connected in Strature

Sources

16 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Crisis Drags On. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. QatarEnergy extends LNG force majeure to November, report says. Bonik Barta (English) · 1 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Bangladesh faces fresh LNG supply setback. The Financial Express (Dhaka) · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. QatarEnergy signs long-term deal to buy U.S. LNG as Iran war disrupts exports. gCaptain · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Gas Market Report, Q2-2026. International Energy Agency · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  6. Taiwan boosts LNG imports in 2025. LNG Prime · 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  7. South Korea sees no LNG shortages despite Middle East supply disruptions. S&P Global Commodity Insights · 5 Mar 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Qatar's budget deficit more than doubles in second quarter amid LNG disruption. Euronews · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  9. Prime Minister Carney welcomes LNG Canada Phase 2, the second-largest single private investment in Canadian history. Prime Minister of Canada · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  10. Lax Kw'alaams Band signs Benefits Agreement with Ksi Lisims LNG and modernized Project Agreement with PRGT. Ksi Lisims LNG · 9 Jun 2026 · Company · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Asian spot LNG prices hit almost four-year high in Oct. Argus Media · 19 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Strature forecast register, F-0074. Strature · 26 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Qatar budget deficit widens to $5.82 billion. Nyongesa Sande · 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. Oil prices up due to Houthi strikes and US threat to renew Iran war. The National · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  15. Pezeshkian to Visit Russia for Gas Exporters' Summit. Tasnim News Agency · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  16. Massoud Pezeshkian rencontrera Vladimir Poutine au sommet gazier de Moscou (AFP, citing Tasnim and Iran's ambassador Kazem Jalali). Connaissance des Énergies (AFP) · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks