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World risk · Energy and resources · Gulf & Hormuz (Iran war)

A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea

The test From 1 Nov 2026 to 31 Mar 2027, the government or gas regulator of an EU member state, Japan or South Korea orders mandatory cuts in gas supply to, or use by, industrial or commercial customers because of a supply shortage (a price signal or a voluntary appeal does not count).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. German gas storage 61.6% (152.5 TWh) on 27 Oct 2026, clearly below past years; early warning stage since 1 Jul 2025; regulator rates tight-supply risk as low. [12]
  2. EU 90% storage target may be met from 1 Oct to 1 Dec, with deviations allowed, through 2027. [7]
  3. Two Ras Laffan trains, 12.8 Mtpa or about 17% of Qatar's capacity, were damaged in March; repairs could take three to five years. [2]
  4. Middle East LNG exports fell 47% in the first half of 2026 while world LNG exports fell only about 1%. [5]
  5. EU storage about 71.3% full at end-September against 82.5% a year earlier and about 87% typical; US 62% of Europe's LNG in 2026. [6]
  6. Europe gas averaged US$25.42 per MMBtu in Sep 2026 against US$11.24 in Feb; Japan LNG US$14.25 (estimate). [8]
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. QatarEnergy extended force majeure to the end of November; Reuters put the fall in Qatar's exports at as much as 96%. [4]
  2. LNG Canada took FID on 28 Sep 2026 to double capacity from 14 to 28 Mtpa. [10]

Why it matters

Europe enters winter short of gas: EU storage was about 71.3% full at the end of September against 82.5% a year earlier, and Qatar's LNG exports are a small fraction of pre-war volumes. Europe's gas price averaged US$25.42 per MMBtu in September, more than double February's. A cold winter could force a government to order gas cuts; Canada's new LNG exports to Asia are the other side.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: Europe gas US$25.42 in September. Brakes: flexible EU target; price rations demand first; South Korean stocks and fuel switching; German regulator rates tight-supply risk low (27 Oct).

Why Impact 5 Key price World Bank Europe gas (US$25.42 in September, 67% above its one-year average). Threshold case one state's industrial cut order for weeks. Canada gains as a seller.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Just over 112 bcm of LNG transited Hormuz in 2025, about 19% of world LNG trade; about 93% of Qatar's LNG exports pass through it. [1] (Feb 2026)
  • Qatar about 14% of South Korea's 2026 LNG imports (ministry); gas 27% of South Korea's power in 2025. [9] (20 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of Hormuz11. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleStrait of HormuzAFGHANISTANUAEIRANIRAQKUWAITOMANSAUDI ARABIATHE GULF0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of Hormuz11. A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea: Elevated impact · possibleStrait of HormuzUAEIRANKUWAITOMANTHE GULF0300 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

From 1 Nov 2026 to 31 Mar 2027, the government or gas regulator of an EU member state, Japan or South Korea orders mandatory cuts in gas supply to, or use by, industrial or commercial customers because of a supply shortage (a price signal or a voluntary appeal does not count).

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaLNG Canada sells to Asian buyers; no Canadian loss found.
  2. European industryA curtailment order falls first on large industrial users such as chemicals and steel (Strature's view).
  3. Asian powerIn South Korea, Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Do-geol said on 20 Mar the government would raise coal and nuclear output to save gas [9]; Japan and South Korea compete with Europe for spot cargoes (Strature's view).
  4. Prices and inflationEurope's gas price is already 67% above its one-year average (Strature calculation from [8]); rationing would come with a further spike.
  5. Poorer importersA shortfall could force cuts in gas-intensive industries in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 6

Who is exposed

Countries
Germany, Italy, Belgium, South Korea, Japan, Qatar
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Chemicals
Goods
LNG
Straits
Strait of Hormuz
Companies
QatarEnergy, Edison, KOGAS

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A mild, expensive winter

    Storage draws down but prices ration demand; no government orders cuts.

  2. S2

    One cold spell

    A late-winter cold snap with Hormuz still shut pushes one EU state to order industrial cuts.

  3. S3

    Reopening

    A Hormuz deal lets Qatar restart its undamaged trains within weeks.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1EU storage above 30% in early March 2027
S2QatarEnergy extends force majeure past 30 Nov 2026
S3Laden Qatari carriers leaving the Gulf on a regular schedule

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-015116%Forecasts: a build with a government term

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0151: 16% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015227%Forecasts: a build on private contracts only

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0152: 27% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015316%Forecasts: airport terms published, no build

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0153: 16% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015414%Forecasts: a fast-track listing only

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0154: 14% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015527%Forecasts: a standstill

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0155: 27% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure on deliveries to Asian buyers runs to this date; for Edison (Italy) it runs to early December [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 1 Dec 2026 End of the EU window for the 90% storage target [7] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Mar 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Suppliers outside the Gulf gain. US LNG covered 62% of Europe's imports [6], and LNG Canada, now doubling to 28 Mtpa [10], ships to Asia by a route with no strait.

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Strait of Hormuz factsheet. International Energy Agency · 2026-02 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. QatarEnergy signs long-term deal to buy US LNG as Iran war disrupts exports. gCaptain · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven. World Trade Organization · 8 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Europe enters winter with gas storage at 71%, raising fears of supply shortages and higher prices. Business Today · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Gas storage (EU filling target 2025-2027). European Commission · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. South Korea flags uncertainty from Qatar LNG plant damage but downplays supply concerns (Reuters). Cyprus Mail · 20 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. LNG Canada announces Phase 2 final investment decision. LNG Canada · 28 Sep 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Aktuelle Lage der Gasversorgung (assessment of 27 Oct 2026). Bundesnetzagentur · 27 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks