Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Archive edition. Researched 27 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 1 October 2026. Evidence to 27 September 2026; facts refreshed 1 October 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
New build stake · 43%
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“Not quickly. A fund we track taking a C$1bn-plus build stake by 31 October 2027: 43% (16% with a government term, 27% without), our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
“Pledged, and mostly not yet placed: for 6 of 7 pledges we found no placement to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United Arab Emirates
“Little: only 9 of 50 undecided large projects suit an infrastructure fund.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“A signal, not a guarantee: projects with a term went ahead more often, though not reliably.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Costs rose after the decision on half the projects with a cost record; that is the risk to price.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Since September 2020 the funds we track have closed 14 counted deals in Canadian infrastructure. Of these, 12 were in operating assets or in businesses that operate and build at once”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The three fund laws we could read, those of CPP Investments, PSP Investments and La Caisse, set no geographic floor or ceiling.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Foreign fund managers already own and buy Canadian infrastructure, but we found no closing by a foreign sovereign investor from the pledges to 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United Arab Emirates
“By an anchor deal we mean a first large transaction by the Maple Fund, which other funds might follow. For the Maple Fund, up to C$50bn from CPP Investments and Brookfield, we found no transaction by 27 September 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Only 9 are paid for providing a network or facility service: gas pipelines, gas export terminals, a hydro expansion, a hydro-fibre link and a carbon-storage hub.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On this analysis, no binding bid can be priced until the concession, charge and tax terms are published.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Counting only terms in place when the decision was taken, projects with a published or signed government term went ahead 6 times in 15 (40%), against 12 in 58 (about 21%) without.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“With Indigenous equity or an agreement but no term, 5 of 18 projects went ahead (about 28%), against 7 of 40 with neither (about 18%).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In manufacturing as a whole, used as the control, Canadian firms earned 9.0% on equity against 15.3% in the United States, a gap of 6.3 points.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“On this line, the overrun, and who bears it, matters more to the return than the value of any term; another regulated build needs its own figures.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On a regulated project, the overrun and who bears it are best priced before any term is valued.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Of 14 notices on 11 large projects since January 2024, 10 give no reason.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“6 of them are large Canadian industrial projects with a cost record. On 3 of them, the cost rose 22% to 30% after the decision (Exhibit X17).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The two futures with a new build stake by a fund we track, with or without a government term, come to 43% together, our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0151 16%, open · F-0152 27%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“Twelve of the twenty signposts carry a date; four fall in October 2026, beginning with the Alberta pipeline's 1 October listing target.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“We could not price Canadian infrastructure against US, European or listed peers with evidence we can publish.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
| No. | Forecast | Estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0151 | a build with a government term | 16% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Oct 2027 | Open |
| F-0152 | a build on private contracts only | 27% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Oct 2027 | Open |
| F-0153 | airport terms published, no build | 16% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Oct 2027 | Open |
| F-0154 | a fast-track listing only | 14% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Oct 2027 | Open |
| F-0155 | a standstill | 27% our estimate, scored when it resolves | Issued 28 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Oct 2027 | Open |
Found at the refresh, dated before the evidence date and not in the brief's text: the Major Projects Office states that on 1 August 2026 Canada gave notice in the Canada Gazette that the Governor in Council may amend Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act to list the West Coast Oil Pipeline. The notice was read in the Canada Gazette itself at the 2 October re-check (Part I, Vol. 160, No. 31, Supplement, 1 August 2026). The brief's text names only the notice of 29 August 2026 on Roberts Bank Terminal 2 and is not changed. Both are printed; the difference is printed, not resolved. Neither notice is a listing.
Major Projects Office, West Coast Oil Pipeline page (modified 2 Sep 2026), retrieved 1 Oct 2026; Canada Gazette, Part I, Vol. 160, No. 31, Supplement (1 Aug 2026), retrieved 2 Oct 2026
The first signpost, the Alberta pipeline's 1 October listing target: the Prime Minister announced in Fort McMurray, with Alberta's Premier, the government's decision to designate the West Coast oil pipeline a project of national interest under the Building Canada Act, as Global News reports it. In this brief's terms a project is designated only when an order lists it in Schedule 1 (glossary), and F-0154 counts only such an order in the Canada Gazette. Whether such an order had been made was not disclosed at the 1 October refresh; the 2 October re-check found it (below).
Global News, 1 Oct 2026 (updated 11:19 a.m.); The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2026, 7:08 a.m. EDT; both retrieved 1 Oct 2026
After the announcement, Schedule 1 of the Building Canada Act still listed no project in the consolidation current to 21 September 2026, and the Canada Gazette listed no Part II edition after 23 September 2026 and no Part I edition after 26 September 2026. No forecast is changed (W-35); the pre-agreed update moves weight between futures 4 and 5 only, and any such update would be a new, separately dated estimate.
Justice Laws, Building Canada Act (S.C. 2025, c. 2, s. 4); Canada Gazette, Parts I and II, 2026 indexes; all retrieved 1 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
On 1 October 2026 the Governor in Council made the Order Amending Schedule 1 to the Building Canada Act (P.C. 2026-0925), listing the West Coast Oil Pipeline, now called Pacific Link; at 2 October it was not yet published in the Canada Gazette, Part II, or in the consolidated Act. The Prime Minister's release of 1 October and the Major Projects Office page, modified the same day, state that the pipeline has been listed under Schedule 1. At 2 October the consolidation was still current to 21 September 2026, with no project in Schedule 1, and the latest Part II edition listed was that of 23 September 2026. This order bears on registered forecast F-0154 and on the standstill future (W5); they are scored as registered once the order is published in the Canada Gazette. No forecast is changed (W-35).
Order in Council P.C. 2026-0925, 1 Oct 2026, with its explanatory note (Orders in Council database, Privy Council Office); Prime Minister of Canada, news release, 1 Oct 2026; Major Projects Office, West Coast Oil Pipeline page (modified 1 Oct 2026); Justice Laws, Building Canada Act; Canada Gazette, Part II, 2026 index; all retrieved 2 Oct 2026, 04:05-04:07 UTC
No Maple Fund transaction and no published airport concession length or charges regime were found in the sources searched to 1 October 2026.
Newswire.ca (CPP Investments and Brookfield releases) and Torys LLP, 'Canada seeks private investment in airports through long-term concession arrangements' (Sep 2026), searched and retrieved 1 Oct 2026
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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