Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027
The test No Qatari LNG cargo under a long-term supply contract is delivered to Italy, from the last delivery in late March 2026 until at least 31 Mar 2027. The score is for a supply event tied to the Strait of Hormuz; Strature gives no view on any company.
Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ 28 Sep 2026: force majeure on Italy's Qatari long-term contract extended to early December, 35 cargoes in all (contract holder via Teleborsa; OilPrice).
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Two Ras Laffan trains damaged, 12.8 Mtpa, about 17% of capacity; repairs three to five years (as reported) [7]
- Qatar 6,902 of 59,461 million m3 of Italy's gas imports in 2024; 6,839 of 61,824 in 2023 [4]
- Europe gas US$25.42/MMBtu in Sep 2026 against US$11.24 in Feb [5]
- 35 cargoes, about 4.6 billion m3, early April to early December; 23 replaced (about 2.3 billion m3) [3]
- Exports largely halted through Hormuz from early July; at least four laden carriers left in the week before 25 Sep; minister: restart within a couple of weeks of reopening [8]
Why it matters
No Qatari LNG has reached Italy under long-term contract since the end of March 2026. Qatar's force majeure on the contract that serves Italy's Adriatic terminal now covers 35 cargoes, about 4.6 billion cubic metres, from early April to early December; the Italian buyer had replaced 23 of them by 28 September. Qatar supplied 11.6% of Italy's gas imports in 2024, counting all imports, pipeline and LNG. The question is whether the stop lasts a full year.
Why Likelihood 8 Under way: no cargo since late March 2026. Pushes: repeated extensions, damaged trains, US blockade. Brakes: restart within weeks of reopening; some carriers leaving in September.
Why Impact 5 Key price Europe gas, US$25.42/MMBtu in Sep 2026.
The other facts on file (3)
- Contract 6.4 billion m3 a year since 2009 for 25 years; 1.6 billion m3 received in Q1 2026; last deliveries end of March 2026 [1] (5 May 2026)
- Edison expects future Qatari supplies down about a third of annual volumes, before mitigation [1] (5 May 2026)
- 29 cargoes, about 3.8 billion m3, early April to early November; 21 replaced [2] (28 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
No Qatari LNG cargo under a long-term supply contract is delivered to Italy, from the last delivery in late March 2026 until at least 31 Mar 2027. The score is for a supply event tied to the Strait of Hormuz; Strature gives no view on any company.
Under way nowChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Italy's gas billReplacement cargoes are bought in a market where Europe's gas price in September was more than double February's [5].
- Winter securityAbout 1.6 billion m3 a quarter stays missing through the coldest months (Strature estimate from the first-quarter 2026 rate [1]).
- The EU gas marketItaly competes with other EU buyers for spot cargoes.
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- LNG
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Safe passage by winter
A US-Iran text makes the strait safe for LNG traffic and Qatar's undamaged trains restart within weeks, with first Edison cargoes before March.
- S2
A year without Qatar
Force majeure is extended month by month into spring 2027.
- S3
Renewed war
A new strike on Iran closes the strait again and the stop runs well past March.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No new Edison extension past early December |
| S2 | An Edison notice extending past early December |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date
- 30 Nov 2026 QatarEnergy force majeure on Asian and European deliveries runs to this date [6] Declared · Outside event
- Dec 2026 Edison's force majeure period runs to early December [3] Declared · Outside event
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Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- LNG
- Strait of Hormuz
- Italy
- Qatar
- European Union
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Insecurity in the strait keeps Qatari LNG largely halted [8][9].
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Italy buys spot LNG in the same market.
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Shares a channel: The same QatarEnergy notices [6].
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Edison: QatarEnergy estende la forza maggiore. Edison · 5 May 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Edison: QatarEnergy estende forza maggiore a ulteriori 5 carichi di GNL. Edison · 28 Aug 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Edison, QatarEnergy non sarà in grado di consegnare ulteriori 6 carichi di GNL. Teleborsa via Borsa Italiana · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Natural gas imports, annual data (nrg_ti_gas), IT from QA and TOTAL, 2023-2024. Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Qatar extends LNG force majeure as Hormuz crisis drags on. OilPrice.com · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- QatarEnergy signs long-term deal to buy US LNG as Iran war disrupts exports. gCaptain · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Qatar boosts LNG traffic via Hormuz as global shortage bites (Bloomberg). gCaptain · 25 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again. Strature · 25 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (F-0074; briefs S-001, T-003). Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks