The EU moves to delay its carbon price on fuel and heating a second time
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Commission tables a legislative proposal, or the European Parliament and the Council reach a provisional agreement on any text, that moves the start of ETS2 beyond 2028.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy and Greece asked for a delay to at least 2030; Cyprus supported and Estonia suggested scrapping it; Nordics and Netherlands opposed, backed by France and Germany; conclusions ask an updated impact assessment [3]
- Social Climate Fund baseline: Poland up to an estimated EUR 11.4bn, Italy EUR 7bn, Czechia EUR 1.6bn [6]
- Reserve decision: 20 million more allowances per price-triggered release; a second extra release in 12 months; review of the excessive-price measure after 2029 [5]
- ETS2 will become fully operational in 2028; monitoring since 2025; EUR 45 (2020 prices) price guard; 30% more 2028 allowances auctioned; Social Climate Fund at least EUR 86.7bn in 2026-2032 [1]
Why it matters
The EU's second carbon market, which prices fuel for buildings and road transport, is due to become fully operational in 2028 after a one-year delay. At the 15-16 Oct 2026 summit six governments asked to push it to at least 2030; a majority, including Germany and France, said no, and leaders asked the Commission to update its assessment of ETS2's impacts. A second delay would hold back a carbon price on most EU households' fuel and heating.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the summit request, the updated assessment, the precedent, the French election. Brakes: a majority incl. Germany and France opposed, no Commission position, a softer launch already agreed, Social Climate Fund plans under way.
Why Impact 5 Key price: the ETS2 allowance price.
The other facts on file (2)
- Parliament backed the 2040 climate law deal 413 to 226 with 12 abstentions; ETS2 postponed from 2027 to 2028 [2] (10 Feb 2026)
- Polish central bank: ETS2 adds 2.0pp to CPI at EUR 59/t; Poland one of 15 states opposing ETS2 in its current form in mid-September 2025; wants a delay to 2030 [7] (14 Nov 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Commission tables a legislative proposal, or the European Parliament and the Council reach a provisional agreement on any text, that moves the start of ETS2 beyond 2028.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
- The EUA delay pushes the 2030 effort for buildings and road transport [1][3] onto national measures.
- Household energyA delay removes a carbon cost from fuel and heating.
- Public moneySocial Climate Fund plans rely on ETS2 revenue [1][6].
- Carbon marketsA late change resets fuel suppliers' planning for the 2028 start [1].
Goods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 7
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Refined fuels
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Start holds
The Commission's updated assessment keeps 2028 and the reserve decision enters into force.
- S2
A one-year slip
The Commission folds a short delay into a wider carbon market review.
- S3
Two years
France or Germany changes its position and backs a delay to 2030.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The reserve decision published in the Official Journal |
| S2 | A Commission proposal naming 2029 |
| S3 | A Council position naming 2030 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 26 Nov 2026 Extraordinary European Council on the 2028-2034 budget (26-27 Nov; reported) [4] Tentative · Outside event
- Feb 2027 EU competitiveness summit at Alden Biesen, Belgium [4] Tentative · Outside event
- Apr 2027 French presidential election (spring 2027) [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 2028 ETS2 becomes fully operational [1] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Jun 2028 First publication of ETS2 allowances in circulation, by this date [5] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
A firm 2028 start gives clean heating and electric transport a price signal and steady revenue for the Social Climate Fund [1]; European suppliers of heat pumps, insulation and electric vehicles stand to gain. T&E argues drivers already pay a fuel premium larger than the levy would add [6].
Connected in Strature
- Refined fuels
- European Union
- Poland
- Czech Republic
- Slovakia
- Hungary
- Italy
- Greece
- Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy Driven by: The delay states argue from household energy costs, concerns T&E calls legitimate [6].
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Driven by: High fuel prices are the delay camp's main argument [6].
- The EU puts off its carbon border bill, or a big partner hits back Shares a channel: Both are EU carbon-pricing schedules that were put back once (ETS2 start [2]); CBAM prices follow the main carbon market, not ETS2.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- ETS2: buildings, road transport and additional sectors. European Commission, DG Climate Action · 2 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU climate law: a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90% for the EU. European Parliament · 10 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU ETS2 delay dispute: leaders seek updated impact review. CCS.tw · 2026-10 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- European Council: still no agreement on the budget; compromise sought on ETS. EU Alive · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- PE-CONS 47/26: Decision amending Decision (EU) 2015/1814 as regards the market stability reserve for buildings, road transport and additional sectors. European Parliament and Council of the EU · 23 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Delaying ETS2 will not protect households from the next energy crisis. Transport & Environment · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- ETS2 more a tail risk to Poland's inflation path. ING THINK · 14 Nov 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks