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World risk · Energy and resources · Food, climate & health

El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the national government declares a programmed electricity rationing and power is cut to residential users on a published rota in XM's Eastern (Oriental) area or its Caribbean area.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Thermal output about 82 GWh a day vs 95-100 GWh under CREG Resolution 127 (low confidence); rain below 80% of average for four months [4]
  2. 98.5 MW emergency rationing scheduled for 28 Sep 2026; 330 MW cut foreseen next day; reached no home (CNO) [2]
  3. Disconnection orders: 304 to 19 Aug (289 Caribbean), 360 to 23 Sep (345 Caribbean), 364 by mid-Oct 2026 [3]
  4. Inflows 52% of mean on 8 Oct; 4,208 GWh behind El Niño 2015-16; reservoirs 78.1% to 76.3% in a week; XM path to about 16% in Q2 2027 [2]
  5. Mines minister: gas deficit possible from Feb 2027; Pacific regasification due Nov 2026 (low confidence) [11]
  6. NOAA El Niño Advisory; strong-to-very strong event likely through Jan-Mar 2027 [7]
Show 5 earlier changes
  1. IDEAM declared El Niño conditions on 8 Oct 2026; effects possibly to mid-2027 [8]
  2. Firm energy 2026-27 85,217 GWh vs demand 92,886 GWh, gap 7,669 GWh (8.3%); XM calls it a scenario, not a forecast [1]
  3. Gas rationing under Resolution 40524 ended 23:59 on 29 Sep 2026; essential demand fully met; full capacity of 475 Mpcd restored [5]
  4. Gas rationing declared 25 Sep 2026 after a SPEC LNG fault; Resolution 40524 (named in source 5) [6]
  5. Imported gas 28% of supply Jan-Aug 2026 (Promigas) [10]

Why it matters

Colombia enters its dry season with a strong El Niño, low river flows and thermal plants running below target. The grid operator XM says that, in its stress scenario, the system would not be able to meet demand safely and reliably in the 2026-27 dry season. On 28 and 29 September an emergency cut was scheduled but reached no homes. The risk is the first programmed rationing to households in the window.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: the firm-energy gap; inflows behind 2015-16; thermal output below the 85 GWh a day XM says is needed to April 2027; El Niño declared and strong; gas deficit warning from Feb 2027. Brakes: XM says scenarios are not a forecast; reservoirs still high in early Oct; new import terminals.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: programmed cuts to homes in one of the two areas for part of the dry season.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Bogotá population 7.94 million in 2026 (DANE projection) [12] (6 Aug 2025)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the national government declares a programmed electricity rationing and power is cut to residential users on a published rota in XM's Eastern (Oriental) area or its Caribbean area.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
  2. Households and firmsRotating cuts in the Eastern area could reach Bogotá's 7.94 million people [12]; firms turn to diesel generators; wholesale-market debts stand at COP$4.31tn [1].
  3. PricesSpot power at COP$650-700 a kWh in late October [4] stays high in a rationing season.

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Mining and metals

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Colombia
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Manufacturing, Mining and metals, Retail and services
Goods
Electricity, Natural gas, Diesel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Scraped through

    Thermal output reaches target, the Pacific terminal starts and rains return by April.

  2. S2

    Regional rota

    Bogotá's region or the Caribbean faces scheduled cuts in Feb-Apr 2027.

  3. S3

    National rationing

    Hydro and gas fail together and cuts spread across the grid.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Thermal output above 95 GWh a day for a month
S2Reservoirs below 30% by February
S3A second SPEC LNG fault during the dry season

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Pacific regasification terminal due to start [11] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Nov 2026 Obligation to store water ends [4] Tentative · Outside event
  3. Jan 2027 CREG reconfiguration auction [11] Tentative · Outside event
  4. Feb 2027 Start of the gas deficit the minister warned of [11] Tentative · Outside event
  5. Apr 2027 End of the dry season XM plans for (to April 2027) [1] Declared · Outside event
  6. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · COLOMBIA · strature.net

The other side

A tight season speeds up what was slow: XM asks for faster entry of new plants and distributed generation [1]. Only about 5,600 MW of more than 28,000 MW planned arrived from 2020 to 2026 [2], so solar developers, gas importers and demand-response firms gain.

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. XM advierte riesgo de déficit de energía para el verano 2026-2027 (XM Boletín Energético 361). La FM · 2026-10 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Colombia estuvo cerca de un racionamiento eléctrico en septiembre: así se evitó. El Colombiano · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. ¡Se encienden alertas! Colombia ya vive racionamiento técnico de energía. El Colombiano · 25 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Riesgo de racionamiento de energía en Colombia: XM y gas. ABC Economía · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Sin afectar la demanda esencial, finaliza racionamiento preventivo de gas tras superar contingencia en SPEC LNG. Ministerio de Minas y Energía · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Ministerio de Minas y Energía de Colombia decreta racionamiento programado de gas por falla en la planta de SPEC LNG. NTN24 · 25 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. El fenómeno de El Niño ya fue declarado oficialmente en Colombia. Vanguardia · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Déficit de gas ya es estructural: Promigas plantea cinco medidas para enfrentarlo. Forbes Colombia · 15 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  10. Déficit de gas en Colombia desde 2027. ABC Economía · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  11. Por primera vez desde que se tienen registros se reducirá la cantidad de habitantes en Bogotá. Publimetro · 6 Aug 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks