Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Ethiopia
Ethiopia gets almost all its fuel from the Gulf: 97.4% of product imports in 2023. The bill equals 62.3% of its reserves, and diesel supply was reported halved in 2026.
Theme band High
97.4%
Gulf share of refined product imports (2023)
62.3%
Gulf fuel imports, % of FX reserves
17.13%
Exports to GCC6 and Iran, % of total (2023)
95%est.
Share of trade through Djibouti
Read the full panel
Risks
- Fuel. Gulf producers, mainly Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, supplied 3.94 Mt of products in 2023. After the war began, daily diesel supply was reported to have fallen from 9.2 to 4.5 million litres. Estimate from press or commentary
- Reserves. Gulf fuel imports of US$2.359bn (2023) compare with reserves of US$3.78bn (end-2024).
- One corridor. About 95% of trade passes through Djibouti, near Bab al-Mandab, where Somali piracy hit a 10-year high in 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- Food exports to the Gulf. 81.8% of animal product exports and 23.5% of coffee exports went to the GCC in 2023, a market that imports most of its food.
- Fertiliser does not depend on the Gulf directly: Morocco supplied 96.6% of fertiliser blends in 2023.
Uncertainties
- Whether the 2018 UAE deposit is still held. The UAE swap line is US$0.817bn. Estimate from press or commentary
- The Gulf share of remittances, which were US$7.14bn in 2024.
- The diesel figures for 2026 come from a weak source. Estimate from press or commentary
What to watch
- MonthlyFuel deliveries through Djibouti and pump prices.
- 20 Nov 2026The registered strike forecast resolves.
- QuarterlyNational Bank of Ethiopia reserves against the fuel bill.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refined productsDependence | 97.4% 2023Share of refined product imports (HS 2710) from Gulf producers | High | High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20% |
| Exports to the GulfTrade | 17.13% exports 2023Share of goods exports to GCC6+Iran | Medium | High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% |
| Gulf capitalCapital and finance | 1.21% GDP 2024 low confidenceUAE deposit+swap as % of GDP | Low | High ≥10 or ≥25% of FX reserves · Medium 2–10% · Low <2 but ≥US$1bn |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Gulf
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): ETH imports HS 2710 by partner 2023.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Products; East Africa buys Gulf products directly
- S-001 F-0074 Renewed strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 (61%), our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API): ETH imports HS 2710 by partner 2023 (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank WDI FI.RES.TOTL.CD (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS tradestats product group 01-05 (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API) (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API): ETH imports HS 3105 by partner 2023 (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank WDI via API: Personal remittances, received (current US$), BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- African Red Sea states' risks grow as Houthi rebels expand reach (Asia Times, Oct 2026) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis (Wikipedia) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UAE gives Ethiopia $1 billion lifeline (CNBC) (2018; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UAE, Ethiopia sign currency swap agreement up to $817 million (CNBC Africa) (2024-07; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Gulf product imports as % of FX reserves: 62.3% of reserves (= 2.359 / 3.78)
- Share of goods exports to GCC6+Iran: 17.13% exports (= WITS tradestats API XPRT-TRD-VL (reporter data): world 2.86bn, GCC6 0.49bn, Iran 0.0bn; (0.49+0.0)/2.86)
- UAE deposit+swap as % of GDP: 1.21% GDP (= (1.0+0.817)/149.74; deposit may have been repaid)
- Scenario: extra fuel import bill for one quarter if a renewed strike adds US$10-20/bbl: US$0.11bn per quarter (= 3.936 × 7.45 / 4 × 15)
- Scenario: extra annual fuel bill as % of FX reserves: 11.6% of reserves (= 0.11 × 4 / 3.78)
- Scenario: diesel shortfall if supply halves again for one quarter: 431 million litres per quarter (= (9.2 - 4.5) m l/day × 91.7 days)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz