The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the waiver in section 4 of Executive Order 14436 is lifted for goods of Russia and the section 2(a) duty takes effect on Russian potash (HTS heading 3104) imported into the US.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↓ Since 16 Oct 2026: EO 14436 waived the duties with no end date [1].
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Fourth round of Russia-Ukraine talks expected mid-November 2026, probably Abu Dhabi. [10]
- Senators of both parties criticised the waiver; Rep. Meeks filed a bill on 16 Oct to block the recently announced US-Russia diesel deal; Congress in recess until after 3 Nov. [5]
- EO 14436 raises duties on Russian goods by 500% subject to section 114 exceptions and waives them until the President or Secretary of State decides further action is appropriate. [1]
- H.R. 5334 passed the Senate 86-11 (7 Aug) and the House 262-159 (16 Sep) and was signed on 18 Sep 2026; section 112 duties of up to 500% on all Russian-origin goods within 30 days. [2]
Why it matters
A US law signed on 18 September 2026 requires the president to raise duties on all Russian goods by up to 500%. On 16 October he set the 500% rate and waived it in the same order, with no end date. Russia supplied 12% of US potash imports in 2021-24, Canada 79%; if the duty ever bites on potash, Canadian mines gain sales and US farmers pay more, but neither is likely within a year.
Why Likelihood 3 A 2 needs no live cited driver; the rate written into EO 14436, bipartisan criticism of the waiver and talks with deep obstacles are live drivers held by a strong blocker (the indefinite waiver), so 3.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: 500% duty on Russian goods, potash included; US$3.8bn of 2025 imports, gross. Canada gains.
The other facts on file (6)
- US imports from Russia US$29.6bn in 2021 and US$3.8bn in 2025. [4] (31 Dec 2025)
- US imports from Russia US$3,776.8m in 2025 and US$2,215.7m in Jan-Aug 2026. [7] (31 Aug 2026)
- US potash net import reliance 92% (2025e); import sources 2021-24 Canada 79%, Russia 12%, Israel 3%; potash added to the US critical minerals list 7 Nov 2025. [6] (5 Feb 2026)
- Mine production 2025e: Canada 15,000 kt K2O, Russia 10,000 kt. [6] (5 Feb 2026)
- Canada exported about 22.9 Mt of potash (KCl product) in 2024, 53% to the US. [8] (29 Jan 2026)
- Canada shipped 12.1 Mt of potash to the US in 2024. [9] (5 Jun 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the waiver in section 4 of Executive Order 14436 is lifted for goods of Russia and the section 2(a) duty takes effect on Russian potash (HTS heading 3104) imported into the US.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanadian potash fills most of the gap (12.1 Mt shipped to the US in 2024 [9]); a gain for Saskatchewan's mines.
- US farm costsA 500% duty [1] stops most Russian potash (12% of 2021-24 imports [6]); price effect not sourced.
- RussiaLoses a small US market; all US imports from Russia were US$3.8bn in 2025 [4][7].
- Sanctions policyLifting the waiver would end the 16 October pause [1] and, in Strature's reading, signal a turn against Moscow while talks are under way [10].
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Mining and metals
Countries 4
- United States primary
- Russia primary
- Canada
- Israel
Who is exposed
- Countries
- United States, Russia, Canada, Israel
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Mining and metals
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
The waiver holds
Talks go on and the duty stays on paper.
- S2
Waiver lifted, fertiliser spared
The duty takes effect but a section 114 exception keeps potash out.
- S3
Full duty
Talks fail and the waiver is lifted for all Russian goods, potash included.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A fourth round of talks held in November 2026 |
| S2 | An order or CBP notice naming the excepted goods |
| S3 | A decision under section 4(d) of EO 14436 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Fourth round of Russia-Ukraine talks, probably Abu Dhabi [10] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; Congress returns afterwards [5] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 About 17 Mar: 180-day re-determination of the section 113 energy-buyer list and the sanctions review (Strature reading from the enactment date; does not govern the potash duty) [3] [4] Tentative · Window
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The other side
A full duty would hand Canadian producers most of Russia's 12% share [6]; a waiver that holds keeps US farm input costs lower.
Connected in Strature
- US tariffs and Canada
- United States
- Russia
- Canada
- Israel
- The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil Driven by: Parent: the same section 4 waiver governs every Graham Act duty.
- The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil Shares a channel: Same order and same waiver.
- Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line Driven by: The waiver came amid a US-Russia diesel deal and the peace talks; that the talks decide whether it holds is a Strature reading.
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting Shares a channel: US farm input costs.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (EO 14436). The White House · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- US President signs Russia and Iran sanctions bill with new tariff powers. Baker McKenzie · 21 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026: restrictive US tariff measures. Stephenson Harwood · 29 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Sanctions by statute: the Graham Act and tariffs on Russia's energy buyers. Squire Patton Boggs · 2026-09 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trump's decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seen. AP via PBS NewsHour · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Potash. US Geological Survey · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trade in Goods with Russia. US Census Bureau · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Potash facts. Natural Resources Canada · 29 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Potash and the Canada-United States trade relationship (HillNote). Library of Parliament · 5 Jun 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Ukraine and Russia eye new peace talks, but steep obstacles remain. AP via MPR News · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks