The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the waiver in section 4 of Executive Order 14436 is lifted in whole or in part and duties under section 113 of the Graham Act (section 2(b) or 2(c) of the order) take effect on goods from at least one country.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↓ Since 16 Oct 2026: EO 14436 waived the duties with no end date [1].
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Secretary of State Rubio said on 17 Oct 2026 that the president wants to take a 60-day period to analyse what the sanctions and tariffs would mean for the global and US economies. [13]
- EO 14436 sets 500% duties on Russian goods and 100% on the largest 5 importers of Russian crude and gas, then waives them until the President or Secretary of State decides otherwise. [1]
- Rep. Gregory Meeks filed a bill on 16 Oct 2026 to block the diesel deal. [3]
- OFAC GL 135 allows certain Russian diesel imports to 7 Apr 2027. [5]
- China bought EUR 9.1bn of Russian fossil fuels in September 2026 (EUR 6.0bn crude); India EUR 4.1bn (EUR 3.6bn crude). [6]
- Graham Act passed Senate 86-11 (7 Aug) and House 262-159 (16 Sep); signed 18 Sep 2026. [2]
Why it matters
Congress passed a law that lets the US add 100% duties on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The president set those duties up and waived them on 16 October 2026, with no end date in the order; Secretary of State Rubio said the president would take up to 60 days to weigh them. The waiver can be lifted at any time, and China and India still buy Russian crude worth billions of euros a month.
Why Likelihood 3 A driver exists (rates written, USTR monitoring, China and India still buying, the 2025 India duty precedent) but the president's own indefinite waiver blocks it; diesel licence to Apr 2027, Russia talks in Nov, China truce reported to 10 Jan 2027.
Why Impact 6 Threshold case: waiver lifted for India. Worse case with China (US$308.7bn) scores 7.
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the waiver in section 4 of Executive Order 14436 is lifted in whole or in part and duties under section 113 of the Graham Act (section 2(b) or 2(c) of the order) take effect on goods from at least one country.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss on file; potash sellers could gain if Russian goods are hit.
- US imports100% extra duty on goods from a top buyer [1]; US$103.8bn (India) to US$308.7bn (China) of 2025 imports [7][8].
- Oil flowsIndia and China choose between Russian crude and the US market.
- China truceDuties on China would break the truce, reported extended to 10 Jan 2027 [10].
- Russia talksA collapse of the November round [9] would raise pressure to lift the waiver.
Goods 3
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
The waiver holds
Talks continue and the diesel licence runs to April; no duties.
- S2
A targeted lift
The waiver is lifted for one buyer after a USTR report on rising purchases.
- S3
Full use
Talks collapse and duties hit all five buyers.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Abu Dhabi round held in November 2026 |
| S2 | USTR report (section 3) or a determination under section 4(d) of EO 14436 |
| S3 | No talks round by 31 Dec 2026 |
| S3 | Congress passes a counter after it returns in November |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0209: 10% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Fourth US-brokered Russia-Ukraine round, Abu Dhabi [9] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; Congress returns afterwards [3] Declared · Outside event
- Dec 2026 End of the review of up to 60 days that Rubio described (reported) [13] Tentative · Strature date
- 10 Jan 2027 US-China truce ends unless extended (reported) [10] Tentative · Outside event
- 7 Apr 2027 OFAC GL 135 on Russian diesel imports expires [5] Declared · Outside event
- 15 Jun 2027 About 270 days after enactment: wind-down period ends (270 days after 18 Sep 2026) [2] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
If duties fall on Russian goods as well, Canadian potash and other substitutes gain US share. A waiver that holds keeps US trade with India and China open and keeps cheap diesel flowing.
Connected in Strature
- US–China trade
- Crude oil
- Refined fuels
- LNG
- United States
- China
- India
- Turkey
- Russia
- Canada
- The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil Shares a channel: Child: the same duties applied to China.
- The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil Shares a channel: Child, defined wider: any US penalty on India's Russian crude.
- The US lifts its waiver and puts Graham Act duties on Russian goods, potash included Shares a channel: Child: Graham duties on Russian goods, potash included.
- The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions Shares a channel: The 16 Oct 2026 waiver moved both.
- Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank Driven by: The war and the November talks decide whether the waiver holds.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (EO 14436). The White House · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- US President signs Russia and Iran sanctions bill with new tariff powers. Baker McKenzie · 21 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trump's decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seen. AP via PBS NewsHour · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- President Trump waives new Russia sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act. Clyde & Co · 21 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- September 2026: Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions. CREA · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trade in Goods with China. US Census Bureau · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trade in Goods with India. US Census Bureau · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Ukraine and Russia eye new peace talks, but steep obstacles remain. AP via MPR News · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- US, China to extend trade war truce by 2 months. Supply Chain Dive · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Executive Order 14384, Modifying Duties To Address Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation. The American Presidency Project · 6 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Rubio says Trump to take up to 60 days to weigh Russia sanctions (Reuters). Business Day (Reuters) · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks