Sign in Get in touch

US–China trade

China’s goods surplus reached a record US$1.18 trillion in 2025 on the revised customs basis; our brief finds China’s export-control leverage suspended, not removed, to 9–10 November 2026; the US–China tariff truce runs to 10 January 2027.

This page answers: What does our register say about US–China trade, and which countries does it reach?

Using this page
  1. Read the register’s estimates: each is scored when its question resolves.
  2. See who is exposed. Pick a region to narrow the list.
  3. Open Full analyst view for every question, country and source.
Link to this page
Forecast register

What our forecasts say

In the register’s exact words, each with our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Question 1

On 10 Jan 2027, are China's suspension of its October-2025 export controls and the US suspension of the Affiliates Rule both still in effect, and for how long: a short roll-over, a longer settlement, or have both lapsed?

  • F-0191 · Trade clocks: rolled on a short clock · 63%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0192 · Trade clocks: settled for longer · 22%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0193 · Trade clocks: both clocks lapse · 8%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

Show 1 more outcomes

  • F-0194 · Trade clocks: all other outcomes · 7%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

All 5 related questions

Who is exposed

No country readings on this risk yet, so no band is shown. Its forecasts name: China.

What to watch

  • 9–10 Nov 2026 The US Affiliates Rule is suspended to 9 Nov 2026 and China’s October-2025 export controls to 10 Nov 2026.
  • 31 Dec 2026 Whether China’s 2026 goods surplus passes the 2025 record, and whether the US or the EU puts a new broad trade-defence measure on Chinese goods.
  • End 2026 Where the yuan stands against the US dollar, on the US Federal Reserve’s H.10 rate.
  • 10 Jan 2027 Whether both suspensions still stand, whether a general US tariff rise on Chinese goods takes effect, and whether China halts rare-earth magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally.

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of our inputs use rare-earth permanent magnets from China, and what licences and stocks do we hold?
  • Which of our goods would a general US tariff rise on Chinese goods reach?
  • Which of our contracts with Chinese suppliers depend on the truce’s dates?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Every related forecast

Question 2

By 10 Jan 2027, does a US tariff increase on all or substantially all Chinese goods, above the rate in force on 2 Oct 2026, take effect?

  • F-0209 · Risk: The US raises tariffs on Chinese goods generally above the truce level · 10%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

Question 3

By 10 Jan 2027, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally, not only to named entities?

  • F-0210 · Risk: China halts rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally · 4%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 10 Jan 2027 · Open · brief C-005

Question 4

Does China's 2026 goods surplus pass the 2025 record, and does the US or the EU put a new broad trade-defence measure on Chinese goods by 31 Dec 2026?

  • F-0195 · 2026 surplus: past the record, without a new US or EU measure · 80%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0196 · 2026 surplus: past the record, with a new US or EU measure · 9%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0197 · 2026 surplus: short of the record, without a new measure · 9%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0198 · 2026 surplus: all other outcomes · 2%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

Question 5

Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?

  • F-0205 · Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65 · 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0206 · Yuan at end-2026: held at 6.65-6.75 · 33%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0207 · Yuan at end-2026: weaker than 6.85 · 6%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

  • F-0208 · Yuan at end-2026: all other outcomes · 11%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · Open · brief C-005

The full forecast register

Briefs on this risk

  • C-005 China: Borrowing for the Past

How the countries are read

No country readings on this risk yet, so no band and no reach are shown. The forecasts come from our register.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Forecasts: the Strature forecast register, in its exact words, each estimate scored when it resolves. The forecast register

Cite this page Strature, “US–China trade”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/risks/us-china-trade/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • General research, not advice.