KQ-21: On 10 Jan 2027, are China's suspension of its October-2025 export controls and the US suspension of the Affiliates Rule both still in effect, and for how long: a short roll-over, a longer settlement, or have both lapsed?

Our standing estimate

Four outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Trade clocks: rolled on a short clock

63% · likely · confidence not registered

Both suspensions are in effect on 10 Jan 2027, and the earlier of their end dates falls on or before 10 Jan 2028.

F-0191 · Open
Trade clocks: settled for longer

22% · unlikely · confidence not registered

Both are in effect and the earlier end date falls after 10 Jan 2028, or neither carries an end date.

F-0192 · Open
Trade clocks: both clocks lapse

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Neither suspension is in effect: China's controls and the US rule's licensing requirements both apply again.

F-0193 · Open
Trade clocks: all other outcomes

7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Exactly one of the two suspensions is still in effect on 10 Jan 2027.

F-0194 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). China's October-2025 export controls are suspended to 10 Nov 2026 and the US Affiliates Rule to 9 Nov 2026; the truce itself runs to 10 January 2027.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0191	3 Oct 2026	63%	Open
2	F-0192	3 Oct 2026	22%	Open
3	F-0193	3 Oct 2026	8%	Open
4	F-0194	3 Oct 2026	7%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The brief finds China's export-control leverage suspended, not removed: the partners' tolerance of the surplus is written on these dated clocks.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

China

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0191
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, China's suspension under Announcement No. 70 (all six October-2025 announcements) and the US suspension of the BIS Affiliates Rule are both in effect, and the earlier of their stated end dates falls after 10 Jan 2027 and on or before 10 Jan 2028.”
F-0192
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, both suspensions are in effect and the earlier of their stated end dates falls after 10 Jan 2028, or neither carries an end date (including a permanent withdrawal of the suspended controls or of the rule).”
F-0193
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, neither suspension is in effect: at least one of China's six October-2025 export-control announcements applies again AND the BIS Affiliates Rule's licensing requirements apply again.”
F-0194
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-01-10: exactly one of the two suspensions (China's under Announcement No. 70, the US suspension of the BIS Affiliates Rule) is in effect on 10 Jan 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0191 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 2388eeaf2d75f4f8ac664e40ea915a17bb01a0f9ba4bfd7f5109779fd2a55fb4
F-0192 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 e0f487f9694226a1a32fab5c0de8f56c54e0ebf7d989ce22afceef495e77d03f
F-0193 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 cc8ddfb554c290cc8763c44e6aa6dbc94a344871737fdfd39873fc5cd7e63d0f
F-0194 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 050a3150e77f4899a9e315edb0d25c279190d6f787fcfd41c6c5afe5e7093848

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Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.